Question About NCAAB Halftime Lines

[onthewhat]

No way the fukkin books can monitor 50 NCAAB games along with NBA, NHL, etc. so is it possible for pros to hammer halftime lines that are off, etc.?

How do books make halftime lines for shitty games that aren't even televised? Wouldn't you have a huge edge if you were at the game or something and had injury information or just information that is very valuable from being able to see the game?

Talk to me here

[Dunder]

You already have the answer. In game lines are a lot less efficient/sharp than ante-post odds.
This applies to all sports.

[JohnAnthony]

How do books make halftime lines for shitty games that aren't even televised? Wouldn't you have a huge edge if you were at the game or something and had injury information or just information that is very valuable from being able to see the game?

I do this all the time with Israeli leagues.

[Terrapin Station]

Take advantage of the halftime lines, especially right when they come out. A lot of money can be made from these.

[btraband]

they also allow for plenty of second guessing.

[jjgold]

2nd half line is only a formula based off the 1st half score and line on the game

It really does not take into consideration how a team played in 1st half

[tltaylor89]

2nd half line is only a formula based off the 1st half score and line on the game

It really does not take into consideration how a team played in 1st half

[onthewhat]

2nd half line is only a formula based off the 1st half score and line on the game

It really does not take into consideration how a team played in 1st half

Thank you for the information

[pavyracer]

With soccer you have to watch what the lines at the local country shops are. If they are way lower than offshore hammer the offshore lines. Means locals know more about the game and hammer the local lines based on inside information.

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

so there aren't like a bunch of different linesmakers all monitoring a handful of games, to break it down and make it easier to set a line? all formulaic?

[jjgold]

Linesmakers are not watching the games at all

They see what score is at halftime and apply it to the full game line

If team A is winning by 2 at halftime and are a 4 point favorite most of the time team A will be -2 in second half

[byronbb]

I just saw 2nd half NBA Orlando +2 steam to +1 -125 on pinny. Can I be as confident in my 2nd half +2 -110 as if this were my number for a pre-game line??

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

I guess I wonder more how the formula works when Team A was favored by 12 and the underdog team B is beating them by 10 at halftime.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Thats the first thing JJ has ever said that i agree on. I dont cap college or watch college but in the NBA it is very easy to determine a 2nd half line and you dont even have to watch the first half. 95% of the time it is formula-matic or whatever word youd like to use. If the game line is 200 and theres 118 points in the first half the 2nd half line will be 99.5to 101.5 95% of the time. What happens in the first half dosent really change anything.

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

Thats the first thing JJ has ever said that i agree on. I dont cap college or watch college but in the NBA it is very easy to determine a 2nd half line and you dont even have to watch the first half. 95% of the time it is formula-matic or whatever word youd like to use. If the game line is 200 and theres 118 points in the first half the 2nd half line will be 99.5to 101.5 95% of the time. What happens in the first half dosent really change anything.

Interesting, I don't play half time lines really. But I would think the books would like to limit their potential of being middled in situations like this by shading the line a little bit

[alukk]

Linesmakers are not watching the games at all

They see what score is at halftime and apply it to the full game line

If team A is winning by 2 at halftime and are a 4 point favorite most of the time team A will be -2 in second half

not always

[pavyracer]

If a team is -8 game line and they are down by 9 points at HT the 2nd half line will be -9.5 or -8.5 for the team losing at HT. Basically is becomes a ML for the game at -110 odds.

If the -8 team is down by a few points the 2nd half line will be between -6 to -8 so that the game line will become close to -5 to -6.

In HT blowouts the 2nd half line is between +2 to -2.

[jjgold]

Solid thread and some very good opinions on this

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

Solid thread and some very good opinions on this

Opinions? you mean what you said WASN'T fact?

[RichardMoss]

[quote=onthewhat;2992148] How do books make halftime lines for shitty games that aren't even televised?

DonBest

[AMBlai01]

JJ actually makes sense for once...who would have ever thought?

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

I guess I wonder more how the formula works when Team A was favored by 12 and the underdog team B is beating them by 10 at halftime.

this is what I was talking about, this isn't ncaa, but tonight in the nba with the bulls and the suns. the line is suns -7 at halftime the bulls are up 10 and the halftime line is suns -7. if they cover that in the 2nd half, they don't even recoup the ML cover. is there an algorithm that books have the take in account how much they have pending on the spread, and ml's of each side, plus potential parlays ect. that quantifies if it is a good risk to lay a 2nd half line that leaves large middles open?

[pokernut9999]

Seldom ever see lines that leave middle opportunities in my experience.

[brock]

2nd half ncaab scores seem alot higher than the first half
from what I have been seeing.

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

there wasn't a huge middle opportunity for this bulls game tonight? I'd say anytime a 8 point or more underdog has a 8 or more point lead, there is a middle. somtimes they make the line so a push 2nd half bet would be a tie essentially. but in this case they didn't even do that

[southpaw74]

this is what I was talking about, this isn't ncaa, but tonight in the nba with the bulls and the suns. the line is suns -7 at halftime the bulls are up 10 and the halftime line is suns -7. if they cover that in the 2nd half, they don't even recoup the ML cover. is there an algorithm that books have the take in account how much they have pending on the spread, and ml's of each side, plus potential parlays ect. that quantifies if it is a good risk to lay a 2nd half line that leaves large middles open?

tonights game is a solid example of when you have the advantage. It's a huge middle if you bet the bulls, like you should have done!! bulls shoot lights out first half and will propbalby slow a bit and sunds should come back but probably not cover That is when you get your money in with alot less risk and a ton of upside it happens a ton and that's why haltime bets can be the best to make by far!!! other prime examples are when the lakers are down at half when they are favored by like 8....they almost always cover the second half by the end of the 3rd quarter good luck with these plays in the future and go make some loot my friends

[southpaw74]

good rule of thumb is if you see the better team down at half then take them the second half because there should be very good value there! unless of course there has been some injuries or something odd like that in the first half. GL and hope that helps

[RaisyDaisy]

The key though is to look at the shot charts at the half as some of these half lines are out of whack and have very nice value. Just because the first half went 20 points over the line, look for percentage, pace and not only the score. Big blowouts, high scoring first halfs does not mean over 2nd half, look at the variables involved.

[southpaw74]

The key though is to look at the shot charts at the half as some of these half lines are out of whack and have very nice value. Just because the first half went 20 points over the line, look for percentage, pace and not only the score. Big blowouts, high scoring first halfs does not mean over 2nd half, look at the variables involved.

That's a good point. totals at half are harder that sides. many times if the better team is down they will play better defense in the second half and keep scores lower. if it's a tight game the free throws can kill any unders.

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

I like to look at fg %. and especially 3 point fg % for the first half. In college hoops you often see a big underdog team go somthing like 8-11 from 3 and be up by 2 at half. YOu know they aren't gonna sustain that. and are gonna go cold

[Pensinger1]

question RE: 2h value.. say total for an nba game is 200 and score at half is 65-55 (120) and 2h total is 102.. if u play 2h u 102, u cash as long as game stays under 222 total. is this considered a value play since original total was set by line-maker to be 200? or should the original total mean nothing when considering current half-time scores, situations and value spots? thanks

[xxdjstriderxx]

I guess I wonder more how the formula works when Team A was favored by 12 and the underdog team B is beating them by 10 at halftime.

in this case, depending on who team A & B is, if team A (-12) is losing to team B straight up by 10 points at the half, the halftime line will usually be for team A to come back and win by a few or lose by a few points so i would say anywhere from
A -8 to -12 at the half

[xxdjstriderxx]

question RE: 2h value.. say total for an nba game is 200 and score at half is 65-55 (120) and 2h total is 102.. if u play 2h u 102, u cash as long as game stays under 222 total. is this considered a value play since original total was set by line-maker to be 200? or should the original total mean nothing when considering current half-time scores, situations and value spots? thanks

the "value" here would only be applied if you were on the total for the entire game.

original totals and spreads do mean something when considering the halftime spread, but usually not a determining factor.

in this case here are some things to consider:
these two teams were expected to score much less than they have been in the first half.
will their shooting percentages settle down or will they keep up this pace?
will more/less free throws be shot in the 2h?
will it be a close game down to the wire and will there be intentional fouls?
possibility of overtime?
are any key defenders in foul trouble?
etc, etc.

dont just look at the game total and half total and simple because you are getting a 'value' of the difference go and blindly place a halftime wager on the side with 'value'

[Jiggy Fly]

question RE: 2h value.. say total for an nba game is 200 and score at half is 65-55 (120) and 2h total is 102.. if u play 2h u 102, u cash as long as game stays under 222 total. is this considered a value play since original total was set by line-maker to be 200? or should the original total mean nothing when considering current half-time scores, situations and value spots? thanks

IMO it is considered a value play. By setting the 2nd half line @ 102, they are pretty much changing the the original line. I would be all over that.

[freeVICK]

anybody got any 2h systems?