NCAAB New "System" Test Drive

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  • snapstick
    Restricted User
    • 08-18-09
    • 3861

    #1
    NCAAB New "System" Test Drive
    I have been working on a College Basketball System which involves many variables that i want to start a post to test drive the System and see how it performs. I will limit the System posted plays to probably just 1 play a day but there could be more on the big hoops days where the are a substantial amount of games. fade or tail...I will be playing them for a small amount, probably just 1 unit, until i see how it performs over a 50 game or so span. With the play(s) i post i will also include the margin of victory i believe is accurate based on my numbers.

    I know there will be a select few that will start the bashing right away in the thread for various reasons and those will be dealt with accordingly. Im always trying to refine different areas of my capping and i hope along with these plays you can use your own capping ability to make winning wagers. I understand i have posted College plays in the past but this post will be solely for this System i am test driving and hopefully after about 50 or so plays i can get a good read on how the system is performing.

    I will not devulge the information i am using to gather my numbers for these plays for reasons that involve the children that roam these threads and post nothing but degrading negative comments. Once the System has shown results, whether positive or negative, i may help others understand the System better.

    This thread isnt to have others tail me..its for the reasons i mentioned above. If you want to tail obviously your more than welcome to. Good Luck and lets try to keep this thread clean if we can.

    I am still gathering all the numbers for Tuesdays games and when i am finished i will have the first play posted here shortly.

  • snapstick
    Restricted User
    • 08-18-09
    • 3861

    #2
    The posted spreads i will use with these plays will be from the SBR Lines page Utilizing either Penny or Bookmaker. (www.sbrlines.com)

    Also these plays could include sides or totals.
    Comment
    • lcf
      SBR Sharp
      • 11-24-09
      • 367

      #3
      Looking forward...
      Comment
      • snapstick
        Restricted User
        • 08-18-09
        • 3861

        #4
        Tuesday, 12/15

        St. Mary's vs Portland St. (Side)
        Line: St. Mary's -15.5
        Proj: St. Mary's -25 to -29

        Play #1: St. Mary's -15.5


        Florida St. vs. Georgia St. (O/U)
        Line: F.S/G.S 115.5
        Proj: F.S/G.S 100-104

        Play #2: Florida St/Georgia St. UNDER 115.5




        YTD:
        Sides: 0-0
        Totals: 0-0
        Overall: 0-0
        Comment
        • snapstick
          Restricted User
          • 08-18-09
          • 3861

          #5
          I have a pretty good feeling about these "System" plays. We will see how it works out. GL

          Comment
          • snapstick
            Restricted User
            • 08-18-09
            • 3861

            #6
            Its looking like if you wait these plays out until this afternoon you will get better lines in your favor. St. Mary's is currently -14.5 and the Florida State O/U is now 116.5

            The line movement in the St. Mary's scares me a little and is due to a injury to one of their guards but i think they still have enough to get past this Portland State team and cover the spread. In the Florida State matchup i dont thing Georgia State will reach the 50 point mark and i still like the under in that game. GL
            Comment
            • snapstick
              Restricted User
              • 08-18-09
              • 3861

              #7
              Originally posted by snapstick
              Tuesday, 12/15

              St. Mary's vs Portland St. (Side)
              Line: St. Mary's -15.5
              Proj: St. Mary's -25 to -29

              Play #1: St. Mary's -15.5


              Florida St. vs. Georgia St. (O/U)
              Line: F.S/G.S 115.5
              Proj: F.S/G.S 100-104

              Play #2: Florida St/Georgia St. UNDER 115.5




              YTD:
              Sides: 0-0
              Totals: 0-0
              Overall: 0-0
              If anyone has any questions or comments on my plays either in todays games or in the future i would be glad to speak to any questions or comments. GL
              Comment
              • HoulihansTX
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 02-12-09
                • 30566

                #8
                If your projections have Saint Mary's as a -25 fav, then it is more likely that you lines are off, and not the oddsmakers. Your projections should be at least within 10pts or the actual spread.
                Comment
                • snapstick
                  Restricted User
                  • 08-18-09
                  • 3861

                  #9
                  Houlihand TX:

                  After my number crunching on the slate of NCAAB games today that projected line of -25 is the margin of victory i predicted it should be close to. Im really not concerned how many points my lines differ from the oddsmakers. They are off by 15+ points in some of these NCAAB games more than one might think. I dont think a 20+ point victory by St Mary's is out of the question tonight. GL
                  Comment
                  • koby25
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-14-08
                    • 1507

                    #10
                    Good luck
                    Comment
                    • snapstick
                      Restricted User
                      • 08-18-09
                      • 3861

                      #11
                      Comment
                      • snapstick
                        Restricted User
                        • 08-18-09
                        • 3861

                        #12
                        FINAL CARD:

                        Originally posted by snapstick
                        Tuesday, 12/15

                        St. Mary's vs Portland St. (Side)
                        Line: St. Mary's -15.5
                        Proj: St. Mary's -25 to -29

                        Play #1: St. Mary's -15.5


                        Florida St. vs. Georgia St. (O/U)
                        Line: F.S/G.S 115.5
                        Proj: F.S/G.S 100-104

                        Play #2: Florida St/Georgia St. UNDER 115.5




                        YTD:
                        Sides: 0-0
                        Totals: 0-0
                        Overall: 0-0

                        Minnesota vs. N. Illinois (Total)
                        Line: Minnesota/N. Illinois 135
                        Proj: Minnesota/N. Illinois 122 to 126

                        Play #3: Minnesota/N. Illinois UNDER 135


                        Good Luck tonight everyone!
                        Comment
                        • snapstick
                          Restricted User
                          • 08-18-09
                          • 3861

                          #13
                          If you were lucky enough to get the Minnesota Under 138 it payed to hold out but for the purposes of the thread the total is Under 135
                          Comment
                          • Rig
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 11-05-09
                            • 458

                            #14
                            Good luck with it man. I know my friend has a pretty good ncaab system that wins
                            Comment
                            • snapstick
                              Restricted User
                              • 08-18-09
                              • 3861

                              #15
                              Comment
                              • snapstick
                                Restricted User
                                • 08-18-09
                                • 3861

                                #16
                                I-0 on sides and 0-2 with totals tonight. St. Mary's worked out good tonight winning 101-80 as i predicted a 20+ win margin tonight in a previous post. Lost 1 total by 1.5 and the other by 3 points. This system is obviously in a trial run but i figured it may work better for sides rather than totals. I know its only 1 day of plays but if your hesitent on trying out a new system i would just play the sides and wait and see how the totals end up. I will have tomorrows plays posted either tonight or late morning. I have leans on 1 total and 4 sides at this time.
                                Comment
                                • snapstick
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 08-18-09
                                  • 3861

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by snapstick
                                  Tuesday, 12/15

                                  St. Mary's vs Portland St. (Side)
                                  Line: St. Mary's -15.5
                                  Proj: St. Mary's -25 to -29

                                  Play #1: St. Mary's -15.5 WIN


                                  Florida St. vs. Georgia St. (O/U)
                                  Line: F.S/G.S 115.5
                                  Proj: F.S/G.S 100-104

                                  Play #2: Florida St/Georgia St. UNDER 115.5 LOSS




                                  YTD:
                                  Sides: 0-0
                                  Totals: 0-0
                                  Overall: 0-0
                                  Originally posted by snapstick
                                  FINAL CARD:




                                  Minnesota vs. N. Illinois (Total)
                                  Line: Minnesota/N. Illinois 135
                                  Proj: Minnesota/N. Illinois 122 to 126

                                  Play #3: Minnesota/N. Illinois UNDER 135 LOSS


                                  Good Luck tonight everyone!


                                  YTD:
                                  Sides: 1-0, 100%
                                  Totals: 0-2, 0%
                                  Overall: 1-2, 33%
                                  Comment
                                  • iceminers26
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 10-13-08
                                    • 15600

                                    #18
                                    was with ya on the under, got it at 116.5, only made it sting that much more
                                    Comment
                                    • snapstick
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 08-18-09
                                      • 3861

                                      #19
                                      Wednesday, 12/16

                                      South Carolina vs. Richmond (Side)
                                      Line: South Carolina -5
                                      Proj: Richmond -2 to -6

                                      Play #1: Richmond +5


                                      YTD:
                                      Sides: 1-0, 100%

                                      Totals: 0-2, 0%
                                      Overall: 1-2, 33%
                                      Comment
                                      • snapstick
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 08-18-09
                                        • 3861

                                        #20
                                        Wednesday, 12/16

                                        Ohio State vs. Presbyterian (Side)
                                        Line: Ohio State -30.5
                                        Proj: Ohio State -37 to -41

                                        Play #2: Ohio State -30.5


                                        YTD:
                                        Sides: 1-0, 100%
                                        Totals: 0-2, 0%
                                        Overall: 1-2, 33%
                                        Comment
                                        • snapstick
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 08-18-09
                                          • 3861

                                          #21
                                          Wednesday, 12/16

                                          Illinois-Chicago vs. Oregon State (Side)
                                          Line: Oregon State -3.5
                                          Proj: Oregon State -9 to -13

                                          Play #3: Oregon State -3.5


                                          YTD:
                                          Sides: 1-0, 100%

                                          Totals: 0-2, 0%
                                          Overall: 1-2, 33%
                                          Comment
                                          • snapstick
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 08-18-09
                                            • 3861

                                            #22
                                            Wednesday, 12/16

                                            Northern Colorado vs. UL Monroe
                                            Line: Northern Colorado -11
                                            Proj: Northern Colorado -18 to -22

                                            Play #4: Northern Colorado -11



                                            YTD:
                                            Sides: 1-0, 100%
                                            Totals: 0-2, 0%
                                            Overall: 1-2, 33%
                                            Comment
                                            • snapstick
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 08-18-09
                                              • 3861

                                              #23
                                              Thats all for tonights card.

                                              No totals made the cut.

                                              GL to everyone.

                                              Comment
                                              • bodio
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-05-09
                                                • 206

                                                #24
                                                Thanks Snap,
                                                good luck to you too!

                                                I like the Richmond play a lot today! Need to research others a little more
                                                Comment
                                                • snapstick
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 08-18-09
                                                  • 3861

                                                  #25
                                                  Comment
                                                  • kbm222
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 12-13-09
                                                    • 618

                                                    #26
                                                    Before I looked at your post I had all 4 of those picks. I really like your picks (obviously). I had added Ohio E and Miss St -10.5. GL all of us!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • koby25
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 10-14-08
                                                      • 1507

                                                      #27
                                                      Good luck
                                                      Comment
                                                      • snapstick
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 08-18-09
                                                        • 3861

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by kbm222
                                                        Before I looked at your post I had all 4 of those picks. I really like your picks (obviously). I had added Ohio E and Miss St -10.5. GL all of us!
                                                        Thats weird but kinda cool huh? GL
                                                        Comment
                                                        • snapstick
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 08-18-09
                                                          • 3861

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by kbm222
                                                          Before I looked at your post I had all 4 of those picks. I really like your picks (obviously). I had added Ohio E and Miss St -10.5. GL all of us!
                                                          I didnt have Miss St, BUT Ohio Just barely missed my cut. If Ohio would have opened as the dog they probably would have been a play for me. GL
                                                          Comment
                                                          • snapstick
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 08-18-09
                                                            • 3861

                                                            #30
                                                            Very unlucky so far. Ohio State had a 30 point lead at the half scoring over 50 points and all they can muster in half number 2 is 25. Richmond had a 8 point lead at the half and get outscored by 25 in the second half. Oregon State had a 6 point lead with 2 minutes left and cant score another point with 4 tournovers in that span and N. Colorado pushes the 11 point spread when they should have won by 20. 0-3-1 on the night. Hope this turns around.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • snapstick
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 08-18-09
                                                              • 3861

                                                              #31
                                                              There was only 1 potential play for today and it was the UNDER 160 in the Nevada game tonight but i wasnt on the computer last night when the line opened. The current line is 152 and i have the game total set at 144-148. Wish i would have posted it last night at 160. No plays today unless the nevada total climbs back up to 156.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • bodio
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 11-05-09
                                                                • 206

                                                                #32
                                                                Any plays today Snap?
                                                                Comment
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