Wal's College Basketball Week 12-14/20-09

[wal66]

9-11 so far.

Tonights generated lines.

Georgia Tech -19 actual line -15
New Orleans -1.5 actual line -3
Houston -4.5 actual line -13


Plays:

Georgia Tech -15 (quarter unit)
Troy +13 (quarter unit)

[cappinthepigs]

[CarloTwoGuns]

Got GT -16 . Hope it hits

[Masu485]

at first glance i also saw troy covering, but changed to houston -13. i just go against logic now.

[wal66]

I liked Troy a lot till I went to my other site and saw everyone on them. While sometimes that works often times it means disaster. I locked in when I posted so not changing anything now.

[iceminers26]

Good luck Wal

I am leaning to the over in the troy game, no feel on the side

[wal66]

Tomorrows line today. Gonna see how doing the games earlier works for the rest of the week. Maybe I'll see something if I already have my line by the time the lines come out.

Generated lines:

Tennessee -22.5
Florida St -19
Duke -33
Rutgers -2.5
LA Tech -1/2
Minnesota -18.5
Southern Miss -17
UNLV -21
St Mary's -14
New Mexico St -4.5

[wal66]

Good luck Wal

I am leaning to the over in the troy game, no feel on the side

The numbers suggest a high scoring game but the averages are slightly less than the total set for the game. I still lean to the over here as well.

Goodluck with your play.

[wal66]

9-11 so far.

Tonights generated lines.

Georgia Tech -19 actual line -15
New Orleans -1.5 actual line -3
Houston -4.5 actual line -13


Plays:

Georgia Tech -15 (quarter unit)
Troy +13 (quarter unit)

FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!

2-0 for the week 11-11 overall so far.

[Cougar Bait]

Good job tonight Wal...haven't really seen anything this week that stands out yet.

[wal66]

Coug's I hate, I HATE basketball. It never ends there are games every single day. I am addicted to trying to set this program up for basketball. I don't know if it's ego or the challenge but I am more into seeing program results than the games. I can honestly say I haven't watched an entire basketball game since it began. Even the Florida games I have watched less than a half.

[iceminers26]

Tomorrows line today. Gonna see how doing the games earlier works for the rest of the week. Maybe I'll see something if I already have my line by the time the lines come out. Generated lines: Tennessee -22.5 Florida St -19 Duke -33 Rutgers -2.5 LA Tech -1/2 Minnesota -18.5 Southern Miss -17 UNLV -21 St Mary's -14 New Mexico St -4.5

Today's card is awful IMO. With that said, I like NMST and have not been able to get a line for it ya. 1 book on the SBR odds page has it at 8.5, Bookmaker, and the rest have yet to post it. I am wondering, why the delay in posting this line....are they trying to figure out how low they can set it to get more people on UCLA.

Also see a big difference in your Rutgers line, heard a key scorer is out on another board, but have not looked into yet.

[BigAL]

good luck

[wal66]

Today's card is awful IMO. With that said, I like NMST and have not been able to get a line for it ya. 1 book on the SBR odds page has it at 8.5, Bookmaker, and the rest have yet to post it. I am wondering, why the delay in posting this line....are they trying to figure out how low they can set it to get more people on UCLA.

Also see a big difference in your Rutgers line, heard a key scorer is out on another board, but have not looked into yet.

With so many basketball games on any given night I don't include players availability in setting a line. The line is generic and used as a filter to further cap a game. At that point I look for players injured or sitting out for various reasons. So anytime my line is way off that of the Vegas line that is one potential reason.

[wal66]

Tomorrows line today. Gonna see how doing the games earlier works for the rest of the week. Maybe I'll see something if I already have my line by the time the lines come out.

Generated lines:

Tennessee -22.5
Florida St -19
Duke -33
Rutgers -2.5
LA Tech -1/2
Minnesota -18.5
Southern Miss -17
UNLV -21
St Mary's -14
New Mexico St -4.5

Tonights Plays:


Florida St -18 (quarter unit)

Southern Miss -8 (quarter unit)

[HawaiiFan]

Push and a winner, nice day. I hope this system of yours hits on Bball as well. GL!

[iceminers26]

Nice hit on southern miss

[wal66]

3-1 this week 12-12 overall.


Todays generated lines.

Ole Miss -9 actual line -7.5
Miss St -10 actual line -10.5
Ohio U -3 actual line -2.5
South Carolina -2 actual line -3.5
Clemson -10.5 actual line -15
Ohio St -30 actual line -30
Duquesne -12 actual line -11.5
Alabama -13.5 actual line -14.5
Rice -5.5 actual line -7
Bradley -6 actual line -11.5
Northwestern -21 actual line -18.5
Northern Colorado -16.5 actual line -11.5
Oklahoma St -6 actual line +1.5


Plays:

Ole Miss -9 (quarter unit)
Duquesne -11.5 (quarter unit)
Northern Colorado -11.5 (quarter unit)
Oklahoma St ML (quarter unit)

[jellobiafra]

I like Northern Colorado too. Got them by about 22. Btw, have you been keeping an eye on that link I sent you. I exchanged emails with the guy a few days ago and he said he's tinkered with the model which should make it start giving more accurate totals. I believe he said the spreads have averaged about 1.1 point off of actual finals. The totals were like 9 points off and weighted towards unders.

[wal66]

I saved the link but to be honest I haven't gone back Jello. Not that I didn't care just am very easily sidetracked. Trying to still make selections and attempting the Players Talk thing has consumed me. I am lucky I still have my job. LOL.

[wal66]

2-2 lastnight 14-14 over all. The one thing that bugs me here is if you look at the lines from above the program actually had a 12-3-1 night but Imanaged to be on 2 of the 3 losers. Program up Wal down.

[wal66]

Todays generated lines:


NC State -20.5 actual line -21
Florida St -10.5 actual line -10
Troy -13.5 actual line -13
Evansville -7 actual line -9.5
Denver -16 actual line -16
Fresno St -20.5 actual line -13.5
UNLV -9.5 actual line -14.5
Nevada -14 actual line -18.5

[wal66]

Play:

Fresno State -13.5 (quarter unit)

[cappinthepigs]

Wal.. Does your system have any way to predict totals? Looks to me like the Nevada & Eastern Washington total should go over 152.. Opened at like 160 and has plumetted... Just wondering.

Also, I'd love to learn how to make my own program, but I have no clue where to start.. Any tips?

[wal66]

At the end of the season I started playing around with totals in college football. Small sample size and mixed results. I haven't even attempted it in basketball yet not will I until mid season of the conference schedule.

The base program is not set up for totals but with a few tweaks I can manage it somewhat.

As for building your own system I am hardly the one to be asking. The guys in the Think Tank are much better. Course I am not sure they will be willing to devulge too much.

I will tell you how I got started because I have given credit where it is due plenty of times. My entire deal STARTS with Sargin ratings. Using those ratings numbers I then add certain criteria that has proven effective for me and at the end I have created generated lines for the games in which to filter through............As I have stated many times in football I require a +/- 3.5 difference in the generated line and the actual line. In basketball I don't have a barometer yet.

[cappinthepigs]

Thanks for the input man. I'm going to try to work something out myself and see how I can do.

Thanks!

[wal66]

Generated Lines:

Akron -6.5 actual line -11.5
Montana St -7.5 actual line -3.5
Long Beach St -5 actual line +3.5
UC Irvine -2.5 actual line -2
St Mary's -7.5 actualline -11.5
CS Northridge -4.5 actual line -3
New Mexico St -4 actual line +3



Official Plays:

Montana St -3.5 (quarter unit)
Long Beach St +3.5 (quarter unit)
UC Irvine -2 (quarter unit)
Pacific +11.5 (quarter unit)
CS Northridge -3 (quarter unit)

[Cougar Bait]

Nice...we're on 3 plays together Wal. GL