Wal's College Hoops 12-7-09 Thru 12-13-09

[wal66]

Ok for the past 2 seasons I have ran a program I developed for college football and it has proven to be very successfull. I tried last season to tweak the program to use for college hoops and it failed and I gave up on it. There are so many games and I was trying to do all of them and it just became a pain in the ass.

I decided to tweak it again and this year I will select a few games each day and only run those selected games through the program and see how it goes. I won't really be playing anything hard until conference schedule begins but I do need to test the program now in order to be ready.

I have played around with it the past couple of weeks doing a game here and there but with football going on I didn't put a lot of time into it. We have a little break in football now till the bowl games start so now is the time to test the program hard and see if I have something to move forward with.

These are the suggested lines for a selection of games tonight. These are the program suggested lines for these games.

Georgetown -2.5
Dayton -4.5
Temple -7.5
Texas Tech -7
Marquette -13
Vanderbilt -3
Kansas St -4
Pittsburgh -12
Fesno St -5.5
San Jose St -8

I am still playing around with what variance is needed in order to qualify as a play. I am starting out with a home team requiring a +/- 2 point margin and a road team requiring a +/- 4.5 point margin. So with that concept here is what I will be playing tonight.

Plays:

Texas Tech -1.5 (quarter unit)
Vanderbilt +3.5 (quarter unit)
San Jose -3 (quarter unit)

[wal66]

Almost forgot. As in my football threads I enjoy getting feedback on my selections both good and bad. I generally won't change my mind but hearing from others goes a long way in helping evaluate my performances after the results of the games are in. The more we do to help one another the better we all become.

[jellobiafra]

Wally, most of these we seem to be in agreement on. The only one that jumps out at me is KState. The program I'm working off actually has Xavier winning that one by 2.

The 3 games you used as plays are very much in line with what I have. Did you get that link I sent you, btw?

[TJHotpicks]

Thank you Wal. How will this compare to your football system?

[wal66]

jello, I did get the link and checked it out. I will monitor it over the next several days.

TJ, not sure yet how it will compare. I think it will do decent if I get the kinks ironed out by the time we get to conference play. I also think not trying to play or cap every game every day and focus primarily on Staurday games will help as well. Saturdays will obviously be the BIG day and the opportunity to find some weak spots in off market games will present good value I think. I'm looking for wrard to it.

[dchecks]

Hey Wal love your football thread hopefully it translates to the hoops side... Texas Tech looks like a great start!! Good Luck as always!

[wal66]

Thanks dchecks, I hope so too.

[HoulihansTX]

GL this season. I will hav a system myself coming up soon. It started off rocky, and ceased to release plays for awhile. Now Plays should be popping up soon enough.

[CappinTerp]

Wal, I also like Vandy, as well as N.IOWA - 11.5 (line is suspisouly high)

[wal66]

Houl's, you a big totals guy in hoops as well? Just like football I rarely mess with totals.

[wal66]

Wal, I also like Vandy, as well as N.IOWA - 11.5 (line is suspisouly high)

I didn't look at Northern Iowa but goodluck to you on that play and goodluck to us on Vandy.

[wal66]

Opening night for my program is a colossal failure. The 10 games I pulled out went 6-4 but the 3 games I played went 1-2. Just as it has always been in the football season the program can only do so much you still have to do your part and I didn't. I chose a ranked team on the road getting points. Huge error on my part and everyone knows the situation there. I also chose a road team laying less than a number that generally makes the game a pick'm. Two very basic mistakes and 2 very obvious losers.


1-2 for the week so far.

[dchecks]

No problem Wal.. Unlike football, hoops starts fresh 24 hours later. Good luck on a turn around night tonight!!

[wal66]

Still tinkering around with what needs to be in the numbers. If you're playing along at home please just monitor until we see some results that merit play.

Here are 10 random games selected to run through the program for tonight. The first line is the program generated line followed by the actual line as of this posting.


Providence -2 actual line +2
Niagra -5 actual line -8.5
Austin Peay -1.5 actual line +8.5
Wisconsin -7.5 actual line -4.5
Indiana St -11 actual line -13
Villinova -6.5 actual line -14
UConn -4 actual line -1
San Diego -5.5 actual line +5.5
San Diego St -11.5 actual line -14
Washington St -3 actual line -6.5


Based on these numbers tonight I will be playing the following.



Play:

Austin Peay +8.5 (quarter unit)

Wisconsin -4.5 (quarter unit)

UConn -1 (quarter unit)

San Diego +5.5 (quarter unit)

[bigcat1]

mr wall going against me tonight on the cats, thought we where closer than that, good luck to you though, glad to see you just wagering a quarter, I am down big in college basketball (thank you kentucky v/s miami ohio) good luck

[wal66]

Cat's I'm still tinkering around trying to convert my program to basketball. As for the UConn play tonight it. like all others are just program suggestions. Until I am completely done with football I won't be getting heavily into basketball. If I end up going broke before I am completely done with football I won't be doing basketball.

Your Wildcats have a very good season ahead, they can afford to let me get one back tonight.

[koby25]

Good luck wal66

[wal66]

I have some serious work still to do getting the right components involved in this program. Dogs that program suggest should be favs looks to have some potential. Teams the program suggest should win by fewer than the posted line would have been good tonight but have had mixed results coming in.

2-2 tonight 3-4 for the week thus far.

[wal66]

Program lines for tonights games.

Miss St PK actual line -11
Syracuse -3 actual line -3
Cincinnati -12 actual line -14.5
Colorado -1/2 actual line -2.5
Montana -5 actual line PK
Michigan St -12.5 actual line -21.5
Rhode Island -7 actual line -6.5


Based on these tonights plays are as follows.


Plays:

Montana pk (quarter unit)
DePaul +11 (quarter unit)
Oakland +21.5 (quarter unit)

[wal66]

Another bad night going 1-2 and now 4-6 on the week.

[wal66]

I set up to make a post tonight for my plays but as I often due instead of clicking submit I got in a hurry and clicked go so the post wasn't made. I did post at my other site and I had a losing night so I am updating this weeks record as it truly is.

The plays that were to have been posted were Dayton, Midd Tenn St and Vanderbilt.

1-2 tonight 5-8 for the week.

[wal66]

Nearing the end of the first week o testing and results aren't good but to be honest they weren't figured to be yet. i still contend that once conference play begins things will become more clear and easier to find those match-ups best suited.

Todays random selections and program generated lines:

Ohio St -1/2 actual line Butler -3.5
George Mason -2.5 actual line -2
Ohio U -7 actual line -4
Georgetown pk actual line -2
LA Lafayette -3.5 actual line -9.5
Valparaiso -8.5 actual line -10
George Washington -10 actual line -4.5
Loyola Chicago -10 actual line -6.5
Wisconsin -5 actual line -5
Gonzaga -13.5 actual line -13


Based on these results...............


Plays:

Ohio U -4 (quarter unit)

Florida Atlantic +9.5 (quarter unit)

George Washington -4.5 (quarter unit)

Loyola Chicago -6.5 (quarter unit)

[wal66]

Went 2-2 today bringing the week to a 7-10 mark.


Tomorrows selections today. These are the program lines for these selections.

South Florida -16 actual line -13.5
Illinois -7 actual line -17.5
Wright State -4.5 actual line -2.5
Vilinova -2.5 actual line -3
North Texas -12 actual line -12.5
Portland -11.5 actual line -1
Boston College pk actual line -4
Xavier -2. actual line -3.5
UTEP -9 actual line -16.5

Gonna wait and see if there is any line movement between now and tomorrow. Will make plays later.

[wal66]

Sunday's Card.

Plays:

South Florida -13.5 (quarter unit)
DePaul -6.5 (quarter unit)
New Mexico St +16.5 (quarter unit)


Now this week he results are no better than a coinflip but to be honest I didn't look into these games to check stats. I was focused on getting the criteria to put into generating a line. I think for the most part I am happy with that portion on the program. It has given some aceptable lines. This coming week I may back off on the number of games I post because I will be starting my bowl games. I will continue to post one maybe two basketball games and try to get more into those games as far as capping is concerned.

[HoulihansTX]

Man I cant back Depaul as a favorite after watching them on TV against Miss St. They looked like a middle school team in terms of coaching and talent, plus their best player is out for am indefinite amount of time.

[wal66]

2-1 on Sunday and 9-11 for the weeks trial period. I can't say I really learned anything. There were cases where the bigger variances paid off and instances were they didn't. Home or away didn't sem to matter much. Now one thing I didn't factor in was road games in a row or streaks. Will try again this week but primary focus will be on football.