Thursday's Picks

[Joepbj]

Got a great week going and want to continue the run......here's what I have in store for tonight.

NCAA B-BALL:

Baylor +7.5 220 to win 200 WIN

Cleveland St. +11.5 220 to win 200 WIN

NCAA Football:

Over 62.5 Oregon/Oregon St. 220 to win 200WIN

NFL:

Bills + 3 220 to win 200 LOSS

NBA:

Celtics +1.5 220 to win 200 WIN


Good luck boys and lets keep rolling!!!!!!!!

[zerodegre]

baylor gone to +8.5 now

[Joepbj]

I've got 8 on my book.......either way I don't really care. Line moves are line moves and don't really determine anything except where the money is. I hope the public is pounding AZ St.

[Joepbj]

hmm sportsbookspy says 70% of the public is on baylor yet the line is moving the opposite way........well too late now, we'll just have to wait and see. reverse line movements don't mean everything.

[$Burm$]

agreed...really like both of ur ncaab picks Joe..and i saw u had a great call on that duke Wisco game last night...impressed that u were able to hold off on a play like that

[beastnutz]

How does that sportsbookspy work. Is it where the money goes or where most of the bets go?
Does it work? What does it mean when a line move the opposite way of the wagering?

[Joepbj]

i don't know how it works or if it's truly accurate.........you've got to take it with a grain of salt in my opinion. it shows you what percentage of the public is on what side or total. Generally a suspicious line move means someone is putting a lot of money on one side.....example last night San Diego opened as -2.5. The line moved to San Diego St. -1.5. That's a 4 point swing......That is a LOT of dough being bet on San Diego St.......and just so happens they ended up covering. Always be weary of line moves like that, especially if it moves opposite of how the public is betting. Example...let's say 90% of the public was on San Diego last night. One would assume that San Diego would lay more chalk with that kind of action and go to -4 or -4.5. But if it goes the opposite way......that's a red flag to consider there may be some real sharps laying bigtime dough on one side. But nothing is ever 100% in gambling and that team could get blown out by 20, you never know......but more often then not, it's better to side with the smart money.

[beastnutz]

ok, so when they give youthe percentage on the spy, is that the actual money or number of betters?

[Joepbj]

i think it's percentage of people but not positive..........often wondered myself. you should start a new thread asking that question. someone on here will know.

[beastnutz]

Thanks for your help just the same. I really don't have time to start a new thread but I sent the spy website the same question so we'll see what they say and i'll get back to you. It is kind of interesting though.

[beastnutz]

i'm going

[Joepbj]

yea you're onto something alright. i'd like to know how many reverse line movements hit, from what i've seen it's well over half of them. let me know what you find out. hopefully baylor isn't a victim of it tonight

[beastnutz]

Welllllll over..... I just looked all of tonights and with the system they it all works... Take the over in Northrige.... bu

[beastnutz]

I just edited my original posting,lol,too many catch on the line won't move right and it will even off. How about I just start giving the picks on this post and people could do whatever they want.

[beastnutz]

also the under for the half on texas at 70

[beastnutz]

Now that is thinking outside the box JOE

[zerodegre]

Cleveland state laying an egg.. need a miracle!!

[zerodegre]

dont foul Cl State and we cover!!

[zerodegre]

holy shit miracle cover!!!

2-0 so far

Oregon over looking good too!

[Joepbj]

yea, i got bored and took texas 1h over and need 2 pts. in the last 30 seconds.....even had 2 free throw opportunities.....of course he missed both........that's exactly why i don't bet on halfs.........we sure got lucky in cleveland state! lost the bills but still looking good. might be able to go 4-1 afterall

[zerodegre]

baylor down 9 at half

[zerodegre]

i did not play Buffalo... i have Oregon St +10 and the over 63

[zerodegre]

Oregaon St Over just hit in 3rd Q!!

another win!

[Joepbj]

yep.....hopefully they can hang on......lookin good! I think Baylor will tighten up 2nd half.....the last couple minutes got away from them especially that buzzer beater 3. I took them +2 2nd half.

[zerodegre]

i just kept my original Baylor +8.5 didnt play 2h

[beastnutz]

MY MAAAAAANNNN!! 2 for 2 on the system. HOLLA!!!!!

[Joepbj]

who'd you take?

[bigceesa19]

Im 4 out of 7right now...Oregon needs a td and baylor game

[bigceesa19]

awww lost oregon game

[zerodegre]

i go 5-0 if Baylor covers

[Joepbj]

i'll go 6-2 if they cover...............I added a couple plays that I posted on other threads.......Texas 1H over 61.5 LOSS, Idaho 2H over 83 WIN, and Baylor +2 2 Half.....pending but looking damn good.

[zerodegre]

Baylor is going to win outright

[Joepbj]

Yep 6-2 night fellas..........who said gambling was hard????Up over 4k since Monday. Let's keep it rollin into the weekend boys!!!!!!!!