I'm gonna start a picks thread...

[jellobiafra]

for kicks and record keeping purposes. These are going to all be based off a friend's statistical model. He puts out his program's selections each day and I'm looking for lines that are way out of whack with the model's predictions. I'll list the program's predicted score next to the pick.

I wouldn't recommend wagering on these until they show to be profitable....IF they show to be profitable. He told me not to use them for anything other than entertainment purposes for about another month, but I'm not a patient man.
Picks to follow....

[jellobiafra]

Dec 2nd :

Clemson -4.5 (88-66)
Minnesota +2.5 (65-55)
ECU +12 (84-78)
New Orleans +11 (60-61)
Portland -15 (93-64)
Sac State +10 (76-67)


There are a few more that are interesting, but I'm trying to stick to games with at least a 10 point discrepancy and that also pass my "smell test". Again, let's just observe for a little while and see how this goes before anyone starts putting money on them.

[Hammew]

Sounds good, hope it works, GL.

[jellobiafra]

ECU +12 (84-78)

I knew this would probably happen once I saw what I did after the fact. The line was actually 12.5. I played it at 12.5 in the SBR points book (the only place I'm playing these right now). I meant to post ECU +12.5, but whatever... it's a push as far as the thread is concerned. This was also a 7 point game with a minute left.

One thing I'm going to do from now on is focus on smaller market games. No more big conference, national TV matchups for now.

Still two games to go tonight. 2-2 so far on the day. Clemson looked like a lock early in the 2nd half (up 23) and Minnesota was back and forth with Miami all game, leading midway through the 2nd.

Oh well, that's the breaks....

[jellobiafra]

Dec 2nd :

Clemson -4.5 (88-66) LOSS
Minnesota +2.5 (65-55) LOSS
ECU +12 (84-78) PUSH
New Orleans +11 (60-61) WIN
Portland -15 (93-64) LOSS
Sac State +10 (76-67) WIN

2-3-1 (push should have actually been a win. Meant to post +12.5)


Little bit of good, but more bad. Not a great debut, but again I'm just testing this out for now. Sac State won SU, but Portland lost as a 15 point favorite. And then there was Clemson burying SBR.

I'm gonna keep doing this but like I said above, smaller market games only for now. I still think it's too early to use this model for real money wagers. Should be much better in a month.

[jellobiafra]

Dec 3rd:

Idaho +1 (92-80)
Tenn St PK (77-69)
Illinois-C +9.5 (67-64)

(Tennessee State doesn't quite meet the 10 point threshold, but they are at home as a pick so I think the risk is worth it. )



As I said last night I'm switching to small conference/market teams only for now. If I were using big conference games thenUSC +20.5 (at Texas) and Princeton +8.5 (at Rutgers) would be plays. The model has USC losing by 4 and Princeton actually winning by 10.


There are also a few totals that jump out but I'm not going to play them yet. I think I'm going use roughly a 20 point differential there as my play on number when I do start using them. These are a few that stood out:

Princeton/Rutgers o117 (134)
Idaho/CS-Northridge o152 (172)
USC/Texas u133 (110)
WSU/Texas Tech u155.5 (137)


Only the bold plays at the very top are going to be official for the purposes of this thread.

[jellobiafra]

I'm getting some good line movement on these plays since posting.

Idaho is now at -1 about to be -1.5. Tenn State is at -1.5 moving towards 2.

The totals are also moving. UW/TT has moved down a point. Princeton/Rut has moved up 2 points. Idaho/CS-N has moved up a point.

I like it. I think I'll start incorporating totals tomorrow.