themente's NCAABB picks

themente · 12-03-09, 12:01 AM

Originally posted by themente

*1-star (min)*

Pittsburgh -6
Rhode Island +4.5
Oklahoma St +3
Harvard -6
Northern Iowa +6
Arkansas St +11.5
SMU -1
New Mexico -4
Wisconsin +4
Florida St +7
Siena +5.5

##############

***3-star***

Dayton -3.5
Villanova -18.5
Butler -12.5
UAB -13.5
Tulane -11.5
Bradley -5.5
Missouri St -2
BYU +1.5
Vanderbilt -5
Western Carolina -4
Utah +5
Portland -14.5

##############

*****5-star (max)*****

Richmond -3.5
St. Louis +2.5
South Carolina -5.5
Clemson -4.5
Louisiana Tech -5.5
Cal Irvine -3.5
Sacramento St +9

RECORDS
*1-star (min)*

: 6-5
***3-star***

: 7-5
*****5-star (max)*****

: 4-3

Now let's improve the math model!

themente · 12-03-09, 06:58 AM

03-12-2009

*1-star (min)*

Texas Tech +3
Wright St -11
Texas -20.5
Idaho +1.5
Furman +10
Coll Of Charltn -10.5
Samford -12

##############

***3-star***

Princeton +8
Tennessee Martin +4.5

##############

*****5-star (max)*****

Detroit -5.5
Loyola Chicago +10
The Citadel +1

seanjohn007 · 12-03-09, 08:21 AM

i like your 5 star plays. but im against you on a couple of 1star plays. gl

themente · 12-04-09, 04:40 AM

Originally posted by themente

03-12-2009

*1-star (min)*

Texas Tech +3
Wright St -11
Texas -20.5
Idaho +1.5
Furman +10
Coll Of Charltn -10.5
Samford -12

##############

***3-star***

Princeton +8
Tennessee Martin +4.5

##############

*****5-star (max)*****

Detroit -5.5
Loyola Chicago +10
The Citadel +1

YESTERDAY
*1-star (min)*

: 3-4
***3-star***

: 0-2
*****5-star (max)*****

: 1-2

RECORDS
*1-star (min)*

: 9-9
***3-star***

: 7-7
*****5-star (max)*****

: 5-5

themente · 12-04-09, 06:03 AM

04-12-2009

*1-star (min)*

Kent State +14.5
Wofford +19.5

##############

***3-star***

Auburn -9
Northern Colorado -0
Montana -8

##############

*****5-star (max)*****

Texas A&M -12
Iona -8

themente · 12-05-09, 05:24 AM

Originally posted by themente

04-12-2009

*1-star (min)*

Kent State +14.5
Wofford +19.5

##############

***3-star***

Auburn -9
Northern Colorado -0
Montana -8

##############

*****5-star (max)*****

Texas A&M -12
Iona -8

YESTERDAY
*1-star (min)*

: 1-1
***3-star***

: 1-2
*****5-star (max)*****

: 0-1-1

RECORDS
*1-star (min)*

: 10-10
***3-star***

: 8-9
*****5-star (max)*****

: 5-6-1

themente · 12-05-09, 07:27 AM

Now i'll start a *new* method.

1 star = 1 unit (expected win = 60%)
2 stars = 2 units(expected win = 60~70%)
3 stars = 3 units (expected win = 70~80%)
5 stars =5 units (very special, rarely) (expected win = 80~90%)

#############################

05-12-2009

*1-star (min)*

Alabama -16.5
Butler -17
Hofstra +1
Purdue -22
BYU -19
Illinois St. -14.5
Loyola Chicago +11
Austin Peay -7.5

##############

**2-star**

Old Dominio -19
Missouri St. -17.5
Wisc Green Bay -10.5

##############

***3-star***

Detroit -3.5
Temple -7.5
Gonzaga -6
Loyola Marymount +4.5
San Diego St. -4.5
UNLV -8
The Citadel -5
W Carolina -4
Murray St. -9

##############

*****5-star*****

E Kentucky -5

themente · 12-06-09, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by themente

Now i'll start a *new* method.

1 star = 1 unit (expected win = 60%)
2 stars = 2 units(expected win = 60~70%)
3 stars = 3 units (expected win = 70~80%)
5 stars =5 units (very special, rarely) (expected win = 80~90%)

#############################

05-12-2009

*1-star (min)*

Alabama -16.5
Butler -17
Hofstra +1
Purdue -22
BYU -19
Illinois St. -14.5
Loyola Chicago +11
Austin Peay -7.5

##############

**2-star**

Old Dominio -19
Missouri St. -17.5
Wisc Green Bay -10.5

##############

***3-star***

Detroit -3.5
Temple -7.5
Gonzaga -6
Loyola Marymount +4.5
San Diego St. -4.5
UNLV -8
The Citadel -5
W Carolina -4
Murray St. -9

##############

*****5-star*****

E Kentucky -5

New Model Stats
*1-star (min)*

: 6-1-1
**2-star**

: 2-1
***3-star***

: 5-4
*****5-star (max)*****

: 1-0

themente · 12-06-09, 11:23 AM

I'm without time to a good analisy

06-12-2009

*1-star (min)*

Florida St. -26.5
San Diego -0
Rider -13.5

##############

***3-star***

Nebraska +4.5
Kansas -15.5
Arizona +8
Canisius -6