Towson +2 1/2

[QuantumLeap]

Got this at Bovada.

Testing my fading of consensus theory. Yes, I know this is a minor game but I'm wondering if this will get more money bet because there are such few games to bet on at this time.

[QuantumLeap]

Towson 76, Iona 69

I'm guessing the public was on Iona with their 8-3 record while Towson was 7-5 but that's just a guess.

[QuantumLeap]

Also going with:

UNLV +11 1/2 over Kansas (1st half)

I've found these large spreads are better being bet in the 1st half. This time of year the big favorites have taken over in the 2nd half sometimes.

[QuantumLeap]

I got good input from Malik in my previous thread about over-analyzing. I had actually thought the same thing before reading his post and thought I over-analyzed by going for 1st half scores. I got side-tracked when I had 2 close losers on Tuesday.

So out of the games I posted this week, here is the record I would have had if I faded the public favorites and taken the full game instead of over-analyzing and taking some 1st halves. The record is 5-3 but easily could have been 7-1 with the 2 close losers. There were no close winners.

I also missed taking Louisville yesterday and missed taking UCSB against Nevada today so the record could have been 9-1.

Monday
Win: Cornell (vs. USC)

Tuesday
Loss: ASU (vs. Creighton) [lost by only 2]
Loss: Cal Poly SLO (vs. Washington] [lost by only 1]

Wednesday
Loss: Northern Iowa (vs. UNC) [lost big]
Win: W. Mich (vs. UCLA) [covered big]
Win: Oregon St. (vs. Kent St) [covered big]

Thursday
Win: Towson St (vs. Iona) [covered big]
Win: UNLV (vs. Kansas) [covered]

[readytowinem]

Got this at Bovada.

Testing my fading of consensus theory. Yes, I know this is a minor game but I'm wondering if this will get more money bet because there are such few games to bet on at this time.

The line started at like 7 and moved all the way to 2/2.5 before the game.

[readytowinem]

I got good input from Malik in my previous thread about over-analyzing. I had actually thought the same thing before reading his post and thought I over-analyzed by going for 1st half scores. I got side-tracked when I had 2 close losers on Tuesday.

So out of the games I posted this week, here is the record I would have had if I faded the public favorites and taken the full game instead of over-analyzing and taking some 1st halves. The record is 5-3 but easily could have been 7-1 with the 2 close losers. There were no close winners.

I also missed taking Louisville yesterday and missed taking UCSB against Nevada today so the record could have been 9-1.

Monday
Win: Cornell (vs. USC)

Tuesday
Loss: ASU (vs. Creighton) [lost by only 2]
Loss: Cal Poly SLO (vs. Washington] [lost by only 1]

Wednesday
Loss: Northern Iowa (vs. UNC) [lost big]
Win: W. Mich (vs. UCLA) [covered big]
Win: Oregon St. (vs. Kent St) [covered big]

Thursday
Win: Towson St (vs. Iona) [covered big]
Win: UNLV (vs. Kansas) [covered]

You are def doing a great job. Stick to the plan and don't try to deviate from this due to a small sample size. If you did this over the long haul and found these results to be true that is another thing.

[QuantumLeap]

The line started at like 7 and moved all the way to 2/2.5 before the game.

I like to look at reverse line movement as well but I'm finding out it isn't a necessary component.

[QuantumLeap]

You are def doing a great job. Stick to the plan and don't try to deviate from this due to a small sample size. If you did this over the long haul and found these results to be true that is another thing.

Thanks and also thanks for the input.

It was mentioned in a previous thread that maybe these don't get enough money to make fading consensus worthwhile but it seems as though the books care enough about some of these to move the line a bit and that tells me it may be valid. Certainly I don't pay attention to the minor games because the percentages could be off.

[readytowinem]

I feel like lines are always inflated in these. Most people never was to take these lower level team vs the top ranked or near tope ranked teams.

I actually won on Cincy 2nd half vs Marshall yesterday but the line was complete bs. Cincy was a -18 point favorite to start the game but after being down 12 at half they made the line -13.5 and then -14 right before the start of the 2nd half. No way should it of been - 13.5 or even -14.

In these early mismatches most of the time it has been the underdog holding down fort for 1 half. That is all they need to do to have a shot at the cover. This with the line being slightly biased to the favorite gives the underdog the needed edge imo...

[QuantumLeap]

I feel like lines are always inflated in these. Most people never was to take these lower level team vs the top ranked or near tope ranked teams.

I actually won on Cincy 2nd half vs Marshall yesterday but the line was complete bs. Cincy was a -18 point favorite to start the game but after being down 12 at half they made the line -13.5 and then -14 right before the start of the 2nd half. No way should it of been - 13.5 or even -14.

In these early mismatches most of the time it has been the underdog holding down fort for 1 half. That is all they need to do to have a shot at the cover. This with the line being slightly biased to the favorite gives the underdog the needed edge imo...

It will be interesting to see how the dynamic changes after conference play starts.

[readytowinem]

It will be interesting to see how the dynamic changes after conference play starts.

Much different imo.

Thoughts on Northern Kentucky vs WVU?

[QuantumLeap]

Much different imo.

Thoughts on Northern Kentucky vs WVU?

Sorry, didn't see this until now. Busy shopping for Christmas.

I didn't see enough one-sided bets so I stayed away.