Thursday Discussion/Plays

[Louisvillekid1]

So far:

528 UL Monroe +4.5 (-105) 1x
581 USC Upstate +4 (-105) 1x
1506 Minnesota 1H +3.5 (-105) 1x
1587 Holy Cross 1H +3 (-105) 1x

[Louisvillekid1]

VCU sucks without Weber man. Never would of thought that he was what made that team tick. Davidson first half on senior night for me....I know VCU is usually strong in the second half with big comebacks against Richmond and ODU both on the road that I can pull off the top of my head. Might be able to get a good number on a second half VCU play

That was rather obvious to me, but I wouldn't say they suck as TG is still unarguable. It was sad day in that richmond game even though i was cashing nice ticket.

your right on w/ davidson and I'm gonna try to get a better line @ half on VCU if I like what i see

[Louisvillekid1]

That was rather obvious to me, but I wouldn't say they suck. IT was sad day in that richmond game even though i was cashing nice ticket.

your right on w/ davidson and I'm gonna try to get a better line @ half on VCU if I like what i see

To your point for Senior night, davidson only has 1 senior I believe

[2daBank]

ML is dropping. One of the stranger lines I've seen all season long. Arkansas should've opened at -4.

Like I said in 1st post. If this wasn't higher when I woke up Id worry.. Can't believe fukkin thing dropped.. Thought for sure that they would take on sharp and square money alike. I just don't buy scary, ark does play some close as road gms tho. I've made my bed for 1u, figured I could always buy out if I wanted but line moving wrong way so it is what is is..guess I just need to find some more winners to make up for whatever happens there

Maybe wizzle can take scary, that would fix this! Def his kind of play!

[RavensFan2k3]

Like I said in 1st post. If this wasn't higher when I woke up Id worry.. Can't believe fukkin thing dropped.. Thought for sure that they would take on sharp and square money alike. I just don't buy scary, ark does play some close as road gms tho. I've made my bed for 1u, figured I could always buy out if I wanted but line moving wrong way so it is what is is..guess I just need to find some more winners to make up for whatever happens there

Maybe wizzle can take scary, that would fix this! Def his kind of play!

Honestly I feel better that the line dropped, if the libe stayed in the 2-3 range I wouldnt like Arkansas here given where it opened. Just wish I would have waited and got a better line

[2daBank]

lol @ that wax bro, shit is selling like crazy here...

I don't smoke personally, but all these college heads and their big ass torches..

Anyway, Lets find some winners!

Lol, I just use the ecig thing to smoke it, don't need those insane bong rips they getting with the torch! That have me tripping! I don't smoke a lot but when I do it either some super high grade shit, hash, or now wax. Only things that don't paranoi me, lol..

[GHSCREW]

kid, what u got on siena
am I the only one that likes the Saints here?

[2daBank]

kid, what u got on siena
am I the only one that likes the Saints here?

i initially thought them naturally since they play the tourney on their court but man they been struggling while nia been playing pretty well down the stretch. plus i think they both won on the others court this season.. im not so sure bout laying the points..

[Louisvillekid1]

kid, what u got on siena
am I the only one that likes the Saints here?

My bad Im getting to that one...

[Louisvillekid1]

So far:

528 UL Monroe +4.5 (-105) 1x
581 USC Upstate +4 (-105) 1x
1506 Minnesota 1H +3.5 (-105) 1x
1587 Holy Cross 1H +3 (-105) 1x

Not a big Chalk player but lets go ahead and mix one in here.

La Tech -11 1H

This is just a complete mismatch no need to give the run down here. But its senior night for a group that's been together for a while and has a nice mix of youth. They flat out do what they want @ home and get whatever shot they want. They are undefeated @ home and I believe only 2 games were in single digits. UAB by 3 & the opening home game of season beat Morehead by 9.

Southern miss is a banged up youthful squad who has only 1 road win on the season against North Texas in OT. Im thinking this one gets ugly early and lets take away the backdoor chance w/ an investment on the first 20 minutes.

Slow start I be happy to double up on them 2nd half.

[2daBank]

speaking of chalk..

quinipiac-7..they have lost 3 of 4 coming in but marist is a great matchup for them (and bigger losers, losing 6 of last 7), we all know what quin does, offensive rebound with reckless abandon. marist is 318th in the country controlling their defensive glass. quin grabbed 27 offensive boards in the 1st 2 meetings, a double digit win @ quin then a tight 2 point win @ marist but those gms were played right on top of each other which i think helped make it a closer gm, that and the gm at marist quin didnt enjoy the ft adv you would expect them to in this matchup and should again tonight.. that the other good thing about this gm and makes me more willing to lay the number, quin is the best ft team in the conf so when they have the lead late i expect them to be able to put marist away at the line if it comes to that..

[Louisvillekid1]

I really enjoy betting the MAAC , let me just say.

Man did Siena get hit w/ the injury bug or what?

Brett Bisping	F	12/07/2014	is expected to miss the remainder of the season	Out	toe surgery
Patrick Cole	F	12/20/2014	is expected to miss the remainder of the season	Suspended	disciplinary
Rob Poole	G	03/05/2015	is probable for Thursday's MAAC Tournament game against Niagara	Probable	sprained ankle
Imoh Silas	C	11/12/2014	will miss the entire season	Out	right knee surgery
Michael Wolfe	F	12/10/2014	has decided to transfer	Out	personal

Is poole playing?

They have been shorthanded and it looks like it has caught up to them, dropping their last 5 and 9 of their last 11. Niagara is the pretty much the youngest squad in all of NCAABB and they look like they are starting to put it together. They won their last 4 including 3 straight on the road which is very impressive.

Siena should turn them over but I think Niagara will get the better looks and plenty of second chance opp's. If the 3 ball is raining which it should here I see no reason why the purple eagles can win here.

Maybe you should tell me why you like saints because I might of just sold myself on the other way, and we can go from there.

[Louisvillekid1]

speaking of chalk..

quinipiac-7..they have lost 3 of 4 coming in but marist is a great matchup for them (and bigger losers, losing 6 of last 7), we all know what quin does, offensive rebound with reckless abandon. marist is 318th in the country controlling their defensive glass. quin grabbed 27 offensive boards in the 1st 2 meetings, a double digit win @ quin then a tight 2 point win @ marist but those gms were played right on top of each other which i think helped make it a closer gm, that and the gm at marist quin didnt enjoy the ft adv you would expect them to in this matchup and should again tonight.. that the other good thing about this gm and makes me more willing to lay the number, quin is the best ft team in the conf so when they have the lead late i expect them to be able to put marist away at the line if it comes to that..

They should dominate the boards here, and I was strongly considering this. Great read! I was thinking since the edge on glass is really going to wear down Marist maybe wait until half for a better #, or use them on the ML in a parlay as I really didn't want to lay 7.

If you move on it I'll tail however, just a thought.

EDIT: Would hate to have great start wasting , I'm gonna lock it in for 0.5 w/ intent of adding or using the other half of unit on a ml par

[2daBank]

Temple - 5 at ECU. Very important must-win for Tempe.

i really thought bout ecu, i like playing them as dogs cause they straight up chuck it from deep all day, always have a punchers chance with the great equalizer.. that said temple pays some of the better 3 point defense in the country and held them to 8-22 the 1st meeting. long as you can keep ecu under their avg they pretty easy to beat. there are some exceptions to that tho, they did beat mem and cincy at home shooting pretty poorly from behind the arc, in those gms im assuming teams made a big effort to run them off the line as they shot pretty well from 2.. tough gm, temple can struggle so much offensively at times it will give ecu a chance to stay in it by knocking down some shots.. ecu been pretty tough at home either beating good teams or hanging around against everyone but ucon. the points are tempting to me but ill prob pass.. gl

[2daBank]

I really enjoy betting the MAAC , let me just say.

Man did Siena get hit w/ the injury bug or what?

Brett Bisping	F	12/07/2014	is expected to miss the remainder of the season	Out	toe surgery
Patrick Cole	F	12/20/2014	is expected to miss the remainder of the season	Suspended	disciplinary
Rob Poole	G	03/05/2015	is probable for Thursday's MAAC Tournament game against Niagara	Probable	sprained ankle
Imoh Silas	C	11/12/2014	will miss the entire season	Out	right knee surgery
Michael Wolfe	F	12/10/2014	has decided to transfer	Out	personal

Is poole playing?

They have been shorthanded and it looks like it has caught up to them, dropping their last 5 and 9 of their last 11. Niagara is the pretty much the youngest squad in all of NCAABB and they look like they are starting to put it together. They won their last 4 including 3 straight on the road which is very impressive.

Siena should turn them over but I think Niagara will get the better looks and plenty of second chance opp's. If the 3 ball is raining which it should here I see no reason why the purple eagles can win here.

Maybe you should tell me why you like saints because I might of just sold myself on the other way, and we can go from there.

like i said i went in thinking siena and came out thinking nia, gms where i do that i usually feel pretty confident. i think nia with the points is the play myself as i agree there no reason they cant win this gm,...

[2daBank]

They should dominate the boards here, and I was strongly considering this. Great read! I was thinking since the edge on glass is really going to wear down Marist maybe wait until half for a better #, or use them on the ML in a parlay as I really didn't want to lay 7.

If you move on it I'll tail however, just a thought.

EDIT: Would hate to have great start wasting , I'm gonna lock it in for 0.5 w/ intent of adding or using the other half of unit on a ml par

yea i grabbed them for half unit with same intention of you, putting the other half into some sort of ml parlay..

[2daBank]

i shoulda bet st pete last night but i was boarder line on the number, think RAS in on them now so line inst even worth considering.

[Louisvillekid1]

Yeah Fran has done one of the best coaching jobs in the nation this year w/ the owls. So many new faces, banker pretty much sum'd it up. I have no interest in laying points here.

[2daBank]

sorry if you already wrote bout LK but i didnt see it.. why holy cross? there some other sharp money on them as well, just curious what ya see..

[Louisvillekid1]

I gotta go shovel all this dam snow lol, atleast get some of it up, then do my grandparents crib...

I'll check back in after prob like an hour...

[krk1030]

uconn, arkansas, wisky, cal

looking at washington, are the injuries to key players? love betting them at home.

[Louisvillekid1]

No worries wrote about those 2 in other thread

Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 6 Kennesaw St @ 3 USC Upstate

The Owls lost both match-ups this year by 3 on the road (68-65) & drilled at home by 28 (74-46).

No injuries that I see

The owls have only 2 road conference wins this year @ Jacksonville by 1 (51-50) & @ Stetson by 5 (61-56). Both the bottom dwellers of there Atlantic Sun.

USC Upstate has showed several signs this year at times that they can pull off an upset or 2 in this tournament. They have one of the best scorers in the Nation in Ty Greene and they really get after you on the defensive end. The Spartans force a ton of turnovers and really make it difficult to get good looks at times.

This game is route city even though its the 3/6 match-up I wouldn't bet against this one being the biggest scoring differential. Spartans will get plenty of second chance points and w/ a player like Ty Greene could give FGC everything they want in the next round.

Unfortunately books will prob be on this and set a line around 14/15.

If it was 11/12 I'd take a shot here on the favorite.
Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1
7 Jacksonville @ 2 Florida Gulf Coast

These squads split this season first stomping the Dolphins by 29 @ home (79-50) & then just losing to them by 8 on the road (75-67) to close the season.

The Eagles win with defense and second chance points for the most part. They really defend the 3 (10th in the nation) which is important here as the Dolphins can really stroke it.

If I had to take a shot playing this game I might take a flyer on the Dolphins 1h. We could see an inflated line because of the FGC tourney run and they actually have dropped 2 straight, while the Dolphins should come in with confidence after pulling the upset last week. If this line is like 14ish and you get Jacksonville +8ish 1H is might be worth a small investment imo.

Anyway, that's my thoughts on the first round off the Atlantic sun, Nothing jumps out as a full play to me and I will post if I do play anything.

Ideally I would hope for FGC to roll and USC Upstate to squeak by and give us a big line with the Spartans as I think they could pull off the upset



Pretty much already wrote about this, but sign me up for Upstate +4 for a unit. Books aren't dumb as I was hoping we get more because everyone knows Gulf Coast and nobody knows about Ty Greene and Upstate.

With the same logic you'd think it might be smart to hold off but the opener is showing me its time to lock this in. (although Im no expert line reader and im wrong all the time)

-------------

Holy Cross vs Bucknell

I'll take a shot here w/ Holy Cross +3 1H. They lead at half in both prior meetings, as they split the season series. The Bison albeit more talented than the Crusaders but they are much less experience. Many freshman get playing time and a few start. Holy Cross is lead by upper class-men, meaning this isn't their first Conference tournament.

Im banking on the fact that Holy Cross just played hoping the Bison might be a little nervous and show some rust being off for a week.

More of a gut feeling and looking back it prob should of just been a 0.5x and the other 1x plays I like much more...

[Regul8er]

Have fun LKid......just finished the snow here!

Gonna post my plays up here soon.

[GHSCREW]

I really enjoy betting the MAAC , let me just say.

Man did Siena get hit w/ the injury bug or what?

Brett Bisping	F	12/07/2014	is expected to miss the remainder of the season	Out	toe surgery
Patrick Cole	F	12/20/2014	is expected to miss the remainder of the season	Suspended	disciplinary
Rob Poole	G	03/05/2015	is probable for Thursday's MAAC Tournament game against Niagara	Probable	sprained ankle
Imoh Silas	C	11/12/2014	will miss the entire season	Out	right knee surgery
Michael Wolfe	F	12/10/2014	has decided to transfer	Out	personal

Is poole playing?

They have been shorthanded and it looks like it has caught up to them, dropping their last 5 and 9 of their last 11. Niagara is the pretty much the youngest squad in all of NCAABB and they look like they are starting to put it together. They won their last 4 including 3 straight on the road which is very impressive.

Siena should turn them over but I think Niagara will get the better looks and plenty of second chance opp's. If the 3 ball is raining which it should here I see no reason why the purple eagles can win here.

Maybe you should tell me why you like saints because I might of just sold myself on the other way, and we can go from there.

First of all, all those injuries occured before Siena played any basketball against Niagara, and covered both times ATS.

http://blog.timesunion.com/collegesp...niagara/19977/ Poole is saying he's gonna play, but be restricted in getting away from his defender. I mean what does that mean, he's gotta play basketball? I don't see a problem if he is going to suit up and play ball, instincts take over at a certain time.

I was speaking with someone earlier about Siena's poor form, and Niagara's winning form, but I just feel that in the two meetings that Siena had played Niagara, they cleaned up. Now that the Times Union will be filled with even more people, I feel like the Saints are just gonna get up and run with it.

Gl if you decide to go the other way anyway

[jameski999]

I really enjoy betting the MAAC , let me just say.

Man did Siena get hit w/ the injury bug or what?

Brett Bisping	F	12/07/2014	is expected to miss the remainder of the season	Out	toe surgery
Patrick Cole	F	12/20/2014	is expected to miss the remainder of the season	Suspended	disciplinary
Rob Poole	G	03/05/2015	is probable for Thursday's MAAC Tournament game against Niagara	Probable	sprained ankle
Imoh Silas	C	11/12/2014	will miss the entire season	Out	right knee surgery
Michael Wolfe	F	12/10/2014	has decided to transfer	Out	personal

Is poole playing?

They have been shorthanded and it looks like it has caught up to them, dropping their last 5 and 9 of their last 11. Niagara is the pretty much the youngest squad in all of NCAABB and they look like they are starting to put it together. They won their last 4 including 3 straight on the road which is very impressive.

Siena should turn them over but I think Niagara will get the better looks and plenty of second chance opp's. If the 3 ball is raining which it should here I see no reason why the purple eagles can win here.

Maybe you should tell me why you like saints because I might of just sold myself on the other way, and we can go from there.

Really liking the Purple in this spot. Niagara is starting to figure it out and looks like Siena is headed in the opposite direction. I'm throwing out the 1st match up between these two early in the season. Siena jumped out to a 21-1 lead to start the game and the Purple couldnt recover and Siena covered the -8.5 and won 10. The latest match up between the two the Purple failed to cover the -2 on their home court but was a closely contested game. That being said Siena was 8.5 point favs at home in the 1st match up and today -3.5 factor in the injury bug for Siena and the line seems legit. But also looks like Vegas is wanting some Siena money and thats what they are getting looks like line at some shops is going to 4.

So 3 units on the Purple. Dont want the points. Dont need the points. I'll take the points. Niagara+4. And a unit on the ML

[RavensFan2k3]

Really liking the Purple in this spot. Niagara is starting to figure it out and looks like Siena is headed in the opposite direction. I'm throwing out the 1st match up between these two early in the season. Siena jumped out to a 21-1 lead to start the game and the Purple couldnt recover and Siena covered the -8.5 and won 10. The latest match up between the two the Purple failed to cover the -2 on their home court but was a closely contested game. That being said Siena was 8.5 point favs at home in the 1st match up and today -3.5 factor in the injury bug for Siena and the line seems legit. But also looks like Vegas is wanting some Siena money and thats what they are getting looks like line at some shops is going to 4.

So 3 units on the Purple. Dont want the points. Dont need the points. I'll take the points. Niagara+4. And a unit on the ML

I agree with except Siena was never -8.5 favorites over Niagara

[2daBank]

First of all, all those injuries occured before Siena played any basketball against Niagara, and covered both times ATS.

http://blog.timesunion.com/collegesp...niagara/19977/ Poole is saying he's gonna play, but be restricted in getting away from his defender. I mean what does that mean, he's gotta play basketball? I don't see a problem if he is going to suit up and play ball, instincts take over at a certain time.

I was speaking with someone earlier about Siena's poor form, and Niagara's winning form, but I just feel that in the two meetings that Siena had played Niagara, they cleaned up. Now that the Times Union will be filled with even more people, I feel like the Saints are just gonna get up and run with it.

Gl if you decide to go the other way anyway

i think you gotta consider how young nia is and that when siena beat them those gms they were losing to everyone.. since then it appears a team full of fresh and soph has done what they should under good coaching and improve. the last month outside of 1 or 2 performances poole has been pretty bad so not sure i would count on a injured poole playing great..

[jameski999]

I agree with except Siena was never -8.5 favorites over Niagara

1st matchup of the season between the 2. 1/8/15 at Siena they were -8.5 favs o/u was 136 is that not correct?

[jameski999]

i think you gotta consider how young nia is and that when siena beat them those gms they were losing to everyone.. since then it appears a team full of fresh and soph has done what they should under good coaching and improve. the last month outside of 1 or 2 performances poole has been pretty bad so not sure i would count on a injured poole playing great..

Also pretty hard to beat a team 3 times in a season with the talent between the 2 teams so close. Have to play the percentages even if the Purple get bet.

[2daBank]

missouri st +3..nothing special bout either team, lets face it they both really bad. i think siu is worse tho and miz st beat them twice this season.. dont really have a lot to say bout it other than i woulda made this missouri st-1 or pk so i think there def some value taking them catching 3 points. i see that line has been tampered with a bunch, bet all the way down from +4 to +1.5 and now on way back up, no clue who fukkin with that line or why? guess im gonna wait a few and see if it gets back up any further but i think missouri st + anything is the right side.

[2daBank]

Also pretty hard to beat a team 3 times in a season with the talent between the 2 teams so close. Have to play the percentages even if the Purple get bet.

ive always tried not to let that whole "tough to beat a team 3 x" thinking get involved in my capping cause quite honestly i dont know the numbers and think it more myth than fact. i could be wrong cause like i said i honestly have no idea (pretty sure when they say it with nfl teams in playoffs it myth), i mean there also something to a team just owning you as some teams just match up better with certain teams. in this case im not sure the thinking relevant either way considering how long ago those other 2 gms were and what the forms the teams were in then compared to now.. i really dont like the idea of fading seina in the 1st round on their home court but it nia or nothing for me, havnt decided which.. prob half on nia will be where im at.

[mrlif1]

in and out today. actually making me work, the nerve...

any one mention colgate? 1h looks real nice. split reg season games with navy, however at home they were cruising all game and literally within the last minute gave up a 10 point lead. colgate** 4th in league in exp, 341st in bench minutes, the players should recall this hiccup vividly. we get 7th best 3 shooting team in nation, 1st in conference, against the 341st 3-defending team, 9th in conference. navy 205th in nation 1h, -3.2 pt diff on road, colgate 171st, but with 5.5 pt diff at home (in last 3 they are +7.7). im not really cherry picking stats either, navy doesnt offer much to trouble colgate besides depth. we get a nice little revenge angle with navy coming off close army victory (season sweep). at -3.5 this is a definitely play. already a 1.5 to win on it for me.

[2daBank]

in and out today. actually making me work, the nerve...

any one mention colgate? 1h looks real nice. split reg season games with navy, however at home they were cruising all game and literally within the last minute gave up a 10 point lead. navy 4th in league in exp, 341st in bench minutes, the players should recall this hiccup vividly. we get 7th best 3 shooting team in nation, 1st in conference, against the 341st 3-defending team, 9th in conference. navy 205th in nation 1h, -3.2 pt diff on road, colgate 171st, but with 5.5 pt diff at home (in last 3 they are +7.7). im not really cherry picking stats either, navy doesnt offer much to trouble colgate besides depth. we get a nice little revenge angle with navy coming off close army victory (season sweep). at -3.5 this is a definitely play. already a unit on it for me.

no but i will def check it out..

[jameski999]

ive always tried not to let that whole "tough to beat a team 3 x" thinking get involved in my capping cause quite honestly i dont know the numbers and think it more myth than fact. i could be wrong cause like i said i honestly have no idea (pretty sure when they say it with nfl teams in playoffs it myth), i mean there also something to a team just owning you as some teams just match up better with certain teams. in this case im not sure the thinking relevant either way considering how long ago those other 2 gms were and what the forms the teams were in then compared to now.. i really dont like the idea of fading seina in the 1st round on their home court but it nia or nothing for me, havnt decided which.. prob half on nia will be where im at.

Yeah i hear ya, Purple or nothing. The home court really doesnt help but doesnt really bother me that much. Seina only 5-9 at home this year and 2-8 last 10 straight up. If the Purple can avoid getting run in the 1st 10mins cause they always start slow. I believe it will be back and forth the whole game. BOL

[2daBank]

in and out today. actually making me work, the nerve...

any one mention colgate? 1h looks real nice. split reg season games with navy, however at home they were cruising all game and literally within the last minute gave up a 10 point lead. colgate** 4th in league in exp, 341st in bench minutes, the players should recall this hiccup vividly. we get 7th best 3 shooting team in nation, 1st in conference, against the 341st 3-defending team, 9th in conference. navy 205th in nation 1h, -3.2 pt diff on road, colgate 171st, but with 5.5 pt diff at home (in last 3 they are +7.7). im not really cherry picking stats either, navy doesnt offer much to trouble colgate besides depth. we get a nice little revenge angle with navy coming off close army victory (season sweep). at -3.5 this is a definitely play. already a 1.5 to win on it for me.

my only question would be is 1st half really stronger than gm? the meeting colgate won they were in fact trailing at half, and they been off for a week while navy had to play the other day to get into this gm so i worry bout little rust early while id think navy more prone to wearing down late. i def think colgate worth a play as i agree with everything you said (good find), just trying to find best way to approach it. i guess could always do 1st half for .5 then be willing to chase them 2nd half with better gm number if they dont cover the 1st..