Wednesday Discussion/Plays

[Louisvillekid1]

Just getting started on the card rough night last night going 2-2 ATS and losing a unit on nd ml in a parlay, lets bounce back.

UMASS is off b2b losses on the road and come back home to play St Joes who hasn't won a game on the road in conference play this year. Umass is also in a revenge spot not that I put much weight into that as I believe that's the most meaningless overused reasoning in handicapping today. I don't want to the lay the number here but I am interested in playing them on the ML.

Also in A10 Duquesne is playing St Louis who is actually in the same situation. The Bilkens haven't won on the road all season in conference and they are fresh off big OT win against LaSalle. St. Louis also won this first matchup at home, so that revenge factor does arise here as well.

Minutemen/Dukes Parlay pays +112 and I'll be glad to lock that in for a unit

[survive]

I was on Richmond in the first meeting vs VCU, I might take them again here. Getting points at home with a team that doesn't turn the rock over much looks good to me

[Louisvillekid1]

Staying in the A-10 Fordham has really been playing much better play over the last several games, (yes they got blown out by davidson last out) but they have been much improved. LaSalle off that OT loss, I'd be more than happy to take the Points at home here for a unit.

In situation like this I like to play the 1H as well, as I've noticed taking the weaker team as a home dog normally doesn't make a 2h charge and if they win they normally get out to strong start.

So I'll go ahead and play this 0.8x +5 and 0.4x +2.5 1H

[Louisvillekid1]

I was on Richmond in the first meeting vs VCU, I might take them again here. Getting points at home with a team that doesn't turn the rock over much looks good to me

I was on Richmond plus those 8 & ML pretty big earlier as well, was a bitter sweet win as we had to witness Weber's season ending injury. I hate to see that go down, no matter if I'm on the other side or not.

They take care of the ball well, and I agree Richmond or nothing

[Louisvillekid1]

UNC wilmington on senior night hosting JMU who hasn't lost since these 2 last met. Kevin Keats has done a very nice job with UNCW and I like this matchup because they really get after you on the defense end forcing turnovers on over 20% of their opponents possesion. Which is a big factor here against a JMU squad who turns it over at the same clip.

JMU has a very balanced offense, but I believe UNCW will defend the 3 very well as they have all season making them more one dimensional. In the first matchup they held JMU to 4-19 from the 3 on the road. Being at home on senior night with the ability to turn the opposition over can really get the momentum going in your favor, hopefully converting those turnovers into easy scores. The seahawks should also get several second chance shots in this one.

I don't think this will be an easy win but I they should do enough to get the home win.

side note Hari Hall continues to be sidelined w/ a concussion for JMU.

Sign me up for -3 0.5x and -150 0.5x

[Louisvillekid1]

Man indiana is tempting with that huge discrepancy with the 3 ball. NW has won 3 in a row giving value on the other side, but I'm not in the business on backing IU on the road laying points... No play for me

[Louisvillekid1]

I was on Richmond in the first meeting vs VCU, I might take them again here. Getting points at home with a team that doesn't turn the rock over much looks good to me

I was on Richmond plus those 8 & ML pretty big earlier as well, was a bitter sweet win as we had to witness Weber's season ending injury. I hate to see that go down, no matter if I'm on the other side or not.

They take care of the ball well, and I agree Richmond or nothing

I have strange feeling about this game for whatever reason, but I will also be on richmond but hoping to get 3 -115, going to watch line and will post If it gets there or I play it.

[RPK2004]

UNC wilmington on senior night hosting JMU who hasn't lost since these 2 last met. Kevin Keats has done a very nice job with UNCW and I like this matchup because they really get after you on the defense end forcing turnovers on over 20% of their opponents possesion. Which is a big factor here against a JMU squad who turns it over at the same clip.

JMU has a very balanced offense, but I believe UNCW will defend the 3 very well as they have all season making them more one dimensional. I the first matchup they held JMU to 4-19 from the 3 on the road. Being at home on senior night with the ability to turn the opposition over can really get the momentum going in your favor, hopefully converting those turnovers into easy scores. The seahawks should also get several second chance shots in this one.

I don't think this will be an easy win but I they should do enough to get the home win.

side not Hari Hall continues to be sidelined w/ a concussion for JMU.

Sign me up for -3 0.5x and -150 0.5x

One of the best plays of the day in my opinion. On it with you and good luck!

[Louisvillekid1]

ECU +5 is a strong lean at this point, UConn continues to be overvalued based on the name on the front of the jersey (just like florida). ECU hit 11-21 from 3 on the road in the first meeting so you figure they can match that or better at home. They won't be able to score inside on UConn however, but that's not their game anyway.

Uconn also hit 11 3's in that game don't expect that to happen tonight. Huskies just have such a strong edge on the glass and should be able to score rather easy inside. ITS ECU or nothing for sure, but might pass here.

[Louisvillekid1]

Wake Forest +7.5 and +4 1h @ home w/ a week to prep for a team they lost only by 1 on the road too, 11 days ago.

Yes please

Lets not forget that London Perrantes is banged up (one of my favorite PG's in the nation btw) I mean didn't he break his nose and have mild concussion last game? No Justin Anderson of course, sign me up for this one.

Another example and where I like to split 0.8x +7.5 and 0.4x 1H

[PorkChop]

Uconn - 5 / Cannot afford this loss. ECU isnt on same level
Rhode Island -3 / Small lean, Home team lean large
Indiana -3 / Would be my play of night if NWest wasn't this hot winning 3 straight. Don't see the upset, but..
Valpal -4.5 / Valpal should NOT lose this game, thought line would be a little larger. Detroit played them decent last month, if drops to 4 points im running with Vapal

[Louisvillekid1]

One of the best plays of the day in my opinion. On it with you and good luck!

lets cash it

[Louisvillekid1]

Uconn - 5 / Cannot afford this loss. ECU isnt on same level
Rhode Island -3 / Small lean, Home team lean large
Indiana -3 / Would be my play of night if NWest wasn't this hot winning 3 straight. Don't see the upset, but..
Valpal -4.5 / Valpal should NOT lose this game, thought line would be a little larger. Detroit played them decent last month, if drops to 4 points im running with Vapal

Here's a situation where I'm potentially looking the play them 2h, as davidson has been a monster 1h team. I might be risking a winning play here but I'll gamble and hope for a better number 2h, unless of course I don't like what has transpired in the 1h.

Detroit is tough to figure they like to show up for games like this, I hate backing road favorites here but agree with you. However I won't be playing this game.

IU/Uconn I already spoke about

[DavieVegas]

I am playing UCF +22 and Fresno state +12.5 on a 6 pt teaser. Cinci does not blow out teams and even though Larry Nance Jr is coming back from mono for Wyoming, I am still picking fresno state to cover. MY cousin had mono and he was out for 3 months. NO way Nance is affective tonight with only being out couple weeks. Wyoming is throwing this guy in because they are losing there ass lately.

[Louisvillekid1]

Shockers have been priced to high all year but have burned me several times. They of course have the rematch with UNI in the rear view but I really dont want to back Indy st tonight.

[Louisvillekid1]

I am playing UCF +22 and Fresno state +12.5 on a 6 pt teaser. Cinci does not blow out teams and even though Larry Nance Jr is coming back from mono for Wyoming, I am still picking fresno state to cover. MY cousin had mono and he was out for 3 months. NO way Nance is affective tonight with only being out couple weeks. Wyoming is throwing this guy in because they are losing there ass lately.

agree with the logic on both, really tough to gauge Nance's impact. if he is close to 100% Im not crazy about backing them (even though they owe me one after that big comeback against Nevada last out! dammit)

I only play teasers in the NFL, but they play looks good.

My only concern is Fresno's desire to play 1 on 1 ball with zero desire to rebound could be a problem against Shyatt's defense but they did play a strong game in the first matchup..

I hope you cash it!

[Louisvillekid1]

Few more thoughts:

I think Baylor could play big tonight, they have really impressed me this year as I've tried to fade them several times lol. Can't believe Im going to say this but Drew has done a decent job with this unit. Although I'm scared to shitless to bet against the Hilton Magic, so even though the Books have finally addressed the ISU home lines I'm not touching a side on this one.

I wanted to back the Fighting Buzz Williams' but line already moved too much and really don't like backing dogs I don't think can win.

[Louisvillekid1]

AS much as I love Coach Larranga I don't understand why they need to be laying 8.5 to rival FSU. I don't really wanna back FSU but line seems high to me

[thecutter]

I think if anyone wants to play Richmond it should be 1st half only I get the feeling they will look good for most of game and vcu pulls it out.

[Louisvillekid1]

USC/Wazzou St could hit 160 but the line is slightly too high for me.

UCLA should be able to blowout Wash but not really interested in laying 10 w/ the pretty boys.

Uga/OLe miss is the game im most interested in watching tonight. Should be fun

[Louisvillekid1]

I think if anyone wants to play Richmond it should be 1st half only I get the feeling they will look good for most of game and vcu pulls it out.

If i pull the trigger on the SPiders I will be splitting with 1h in some fashion

[Louisvillekid1]

After the first run through I got

Umass/Duq ML par Risking 1 to win 1.12
Fordham +5 risking 0.84 to win 0.8
Fordham +2.5 1H risking 0.42 to win 0.4
UNCW -3 risking 0.53 to win 0.5
UNCW -150 risking 0.75 to win 0.5
Wake Forest +7.5 risking 0.84 to win 0.8
Wake Forest +4 1H risking 0.42 to win 0.4

(line watching Richmond)

[bobtoma]

Like Kentucky.1st half -10.5 and over 57.5.. Worst case split...

[THam12]

Uconn - 5 / Cannot afford this loss. ECU isnt on same level
Rhode Island -3 / Small lean, Home team lean large
Indiana -3 / Would be my play of night if NWest wasn't this hot winning 3 straight. Don't see the upset, but..
Valpal -4.5 / Valpal should NOT lose this game, thought line would be a little larger. Detroit played them decent last month, if drops to 4 points im running with Vapal

No idea what youve seen from UConn that makes you think theyre on any "level."
They're a blew average team.

[GHSCREW]

UNC wilmington on senior night hosting JMU who hasn't lost since these 2 last met. Kevin Keats has done a very nice job with UNCW and I like this matchup because they really get after you on the defense end forcing turnovers on over 20% of their opponents possesion. Which is a big factor here against a JMU squad who turns it over at the same clip.

JMU has a very balanced offense, but I believe UNCW will defend the 3 very well as they have all season making them more one dimensional. In the first matchup they held JMU to 4-19 from the 3 on the road. Being at home on senior night with the ability to turn the opposition over can really get the momentum going in your favor, hopefully converting those turnovers into easy scores. The seahawks should also get several second chance shots in this one.

I don't think this will be an easy win but I they should do enough to get the home win.

side note Hari Hall continues to be sidelined w/ a concussion for JMU.

Sign me up for -3 0.5x and -150 0.5x

convinced me on UNC Wilmington. Thanks bud, and get to see ya back Kid!

[BadLuckSanta]

northwestern points and straight up

enjoy

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

Its true. Hes back.

[Louisvillekid1]

Like Kentucky.1st half -10.5 and over 57.5.. Worst case split...

Slight lean both sides

No idea what youve seen from UConn that makes you think theyre on any "level."
They're a blew average team.

agree

convinced me on UNC Wilmington. Thanks bud, and get to see ya back Kid!

lets get it

northwestern points and straight up

enjoy

slight Lean other way

Its true. Hes back.

hope all is well, baseball not far away

[mrlif1]

northern iowa 1h -7 is a play. as is toledo 1h.

[BeanTownClown88]

Hey LK, I've been Ice Cold but grinding along..looking at Duquesne covering at home vs SLU...avenging a road loss to SLU, SLU sux on the road, and Duq has covered every home game thus far...my funks bound to end eventually..right?

[Louisvillekid1]

Hey LK, I've been Ice Cold but grinding along..looking at Duquesne covering at home vs SLU...avenging a road loss to SLU, SLU sux on the road, and Duq has covered every home game thus far...my funks bound to end eventually..right?

Well im using them on the ml only, but i agree with your reasoning as i mentioned in post #1

[THam12]

Hey LK, I've been Ice Cold but grinding along..looking at Duquesne covering at home vs SLU...avenging a road loss to SLU, SLU sux on the road, and Duq has covered every home game thus far...my funks bound to end eventually..right?

I like duquesne. Good find

[ronin47]

can you post a video kid....i want to make sure that you are the real louisville kid and not some sbr guy taking over a popular account after the real man left. i respect your ncaab opinion and would like to confirm that it is indeed you before posting. make a reference to this thread in the video.

[SilverTongueFox]

USC/Wazzou St could hit 160 but the line is slightly too high for me.

UCLA should be able to blowout Wash but not really interested in laying 10 w/ the pretty boys.

Uga/OLe miss is the game im most interested in watching tonight. Should be fun

Ole Miss closed campus today due to snow. Game will be played as UGA arrived yesterday. This should impact attendance as we all know smallest amount of snow cripples the south. It's a late game too. Not even checking tickets at the door tonight so I'm guessing they are expecting fewer attendance. Do students show up? Don't see snow much may say screw the game lets have some toddy's and make some snow angels. UGS getting healthy too. Need to put a lock on Moody though as he is playing well and gave UGA fits in Athens. I'm thinking UGA and pts tonight.

[Louisvillekid1]

can you post a video kid....i want to make sure that you are the real louisville kid and not some sbr guy taking over a popular account after the real man left. i respect your ncaab opinion and would like to confirm that it is indeed you before posting. make a reference to this thread in the video.

lol its me, you can prob tell by my posting...