02/19/15 Thriller Plays

2daBank · 02-19-15, 01:25 PM

taking the points seems like the right play in the temple/smu gm. both really good defensively, 7 a lot when you talking bout a gm where low 60s will win it.. my biggest concern would be that temple shot better than 50% from inside the arc the 1st meeting and lost by 5, smu doesnt allow teams to shoot that well real often and temple is only shooting 42.7% from 2 on the season. smu shot well from 2 as well in the 1st gm but that isnt out of character for them so the question is can temple still stay in the gm if they shoot a lower percentage as you have to expect on the road against a defense as good as the stangs?

indy at home is a lot different than indy away. they typically shoot lights out in their gym, i dont see pur winning so really dont think you getting enough points to play them.. there a reason hoosiers are laying 4 to a team that beat them by 16 the 1st meeting..

2daBank · 02-19-15, 01:30 PM

if hawkins plays for uc davis tonight i love them catching 7, he hasnt played the last 3 and is questionable for tonight so i dunno if he plays or not??

KDF500 · 02-19-15, 01:37 PM

Guys any thoughts in Central Florida +7

2daBank · 02-19-15, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by KDF500

Guys any thoughts in Central Florida +7

not really, they fit the system that hendog post which is very good with very sound logic behind it so it ucf or nothing but far as actually capping it i didnt have a lean one way or the other..

chipshipley · 02-19-15, 01:52 PM

Yes if IU heats up they will roll tonight and i am thinking about taking UCD if Hawkins does play its money.

zephyr · 02-19-15, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

if hawkins plays for uc davis tonight i love them catching 7, he hasnt played the last 3 and is questionable for tonight so i dunno if he plays or not??

As far a I can tell, we have to assume Hawkins will not play; I'm pretty sure the line assumes that. But it's still tempting, isn't it? UCD has played very well without Hawkins. 3-0, 2-1 ATS, 2-0 ATS on the road, without him. I'm especially looking at how they blew out UC Irvine, as 8 point dogs on the road, without Hawkins. That game seems somewhat analogous to the game tonight. I'm wondering if the line is adjusting too much for Hawkins' absence. Maybe not giving the rest of the team enough credit? The reverse line movement is pretty serious though, and does concern me. And I see that UCD's stats have slid over the last three games and they are probably due for a big letdown. But dang. That's a lot of points to give to a generally good defensive team, and a generally good shooting team, on a mission from God, in conference play in the Big West.

2daBank · 02-19-15, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by zephyr

As far a I can tell, we have to assume Hawkins will not play; I'm pretty sure the line assumes that. But it's still tempting, isn't t? UCD has played very well without Hawkins. 3-0, 2-1 ATS, 2-0 ATS on the road, without him. I'm especially looking at how they blew out UC Irvine, as 8 point dogs on the road, without Hawkins. That game seems somewhat analogous to the game tonight. I'm wondering if the line is adjusting too much for Hawkins' absence. Maybe not giving the rest of the team enough credit? The reverse line movement is pretty serious though, and does concern me. And I see that UCD's stats have slid over the last three games and they are probably due for a big letdown. But dang. That's a lot of points to give to a generally good defensive team, and a generally good shooting team, on a mission from God, in conference play in the Big West.

i agree with pretty much all that, id def assume they expect he not playing with that line. although i will say ucd has had some curious lines in a lot of gms this season (many that have had similar rlm). and yea they are tempting without hawkins at that number considering if he did play id be on the ml, as good as he is he prob not worth 7, although he scored 28 in the 1st meeting that went to ot.. very strange line considering lbst hasnt been playing well of late, losing 3 in a row coming into this gm all against teams ucd has already beaten..

red12sox · 02-19-15, 03:13 PM

WKU +3.5, rider -3.5, are my initial leans. Agree with everyone about uc davis. They have been very good to me.

DOM_Toretto · 02-19-15, 03:18 PM

I'm on the fence with Indiana. Having Hanner back should make a huge difference. Playing at home makes a huge difference. I can't see IU losing; is there any reason to think they can't cover 4.5?

Lean SMU as I think they are hot right now and have much more talent than temple. This team reminds me of last year's Uconn, maybe cuz I've bet them so much and mostly covered.

Speaking of Uconn, I like them to beat Memphis with or without Nichols.

PhilTheTHRILL · 02-19-15, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by DOM_Toretto

I'm on the fence with Indiana. Having Hanner back should make a huge difference. Playing at home makes a huge difference. I can't see IU losing; is there any reason to think they can't cover 4.5?

Lean SMU as I think they are hot right now and have much more talent than temple. This team reminds me of last year's Uconn, maybe cuz I've bet them so much and mostly covered.

Speaking of Uconn, I like them to beat Memphis with or without Nichols.

Thanks for the insight DOM, Good stuff. I'm sticking with Purdue because like you said about SMU, Purdue has been doing the same for me. I have to admit I was really skeptical of the SMU and Temple game, but to be honest my gut just told me Temple hangs around. Which means nothing, but.. I went with it. I know when I'm fade material, because I fade my gut when thats the case. However, right now I'm feeling good. As always though, I could be wrong about everything. haha

PhilTheTHRILL · 02-19-15, 03:49 PM

I'm gonna get in on the UC Davis action. Grabbing them 1H and +7 for the game.

PhilTheTHRILL · 02-19-15, 03:49 PM

Sucks that Purdue is at +4.5 already. Dang.

DOM_Toretto · 02-19-15, 04:37 PM

You & I talked myself out of SMU. I can see them winning this by 5 for some reason. They're the better team but it may be a close one. Laying 7 is too much right now.

DOM_Toretto · 02-19-15, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by DOM_Toretto

I'm on the fence with Indiana. Having Hanner back should make a huge difference. Playing at home makes a huge difference. I can't see IU losing; is there any reason to think they can't cover 4.5?

On second thought, no - there's no reason to think they can't cover. Unless you really think this comes down to the last second shot. If IU takes the lead by 4 or more at any point in the last 1:30 they should end up covering as they are great FT shooters (yogi is like top 10-15 FT in the country). They shoot lights out at home, will have a rowdy Thursday night crowd looking for revenge, might get some calls their way (Purdue already fouls more than Indiana). Purdue has been hot lately but they have also been letting opponents shoot 40%+ from 3 which could bury them tonight.

PhilTheTHRILL · 02-19-15, 05:32 PM

Well, Marshall getting wrecked already. Here's to a better 2nd Half!

. At least I can limit myself to small plays when i'm looking for early action. Thats a plus at least.

epics · 02-19-15, 05:40 PM

26-34 1:29 left still got a chance for 1H!

epics · 02-19-15, 05:41 PM

Hit a 3 here for the tie! cmon!!

DOM_Toretto · 02-19-15, 08:54 PM

Fukk Austin Nichols is playing for Memphis. Maybe he'll be limited. Still like Uconn, just gonna be tougher now.

PhilTheTHRILL · 02-19-15, 09:18 PM

Well Marshall shit the bed. But I made it clear is was a play for just action. Purdue comes through tonight with not only a cover but a big win. Temple covered us in the 1H but then screwed themselves bad in the second half. Getting in on the UC Davis hype tonight for a half unit.

red12sox · 02-19-15, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by red12sox

WKU +3.5, rider -3.5, are my initial leans. Agree with everyone about uc davis. They have been very good to me.

Cashed rider, tenn. Martin, uc davis. 3-2 on the night. UC davis might be my favorite team. Wish Indiana could have pulled it out. WKU was up at half and shitt the bed.