How much of a factor does the team 3-point % play into your handicapping?

Madetowin · 03-11-09, 02:08 PM

Way the teams have played lately is huge for me . Leads to many upsets. Injuries and defense presence. Blocks rebounds and height. A good offensive presence of course.

freeVICK · 03-11-09, 02:20 PM

this time of year, defense is the only thing that matters. bet on dogs with the better D, and you will be ok

BiffTFinancial · 03-11-09, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by The General

Is it a big factor for you or just a small piece of the puzzle? What is the most important factor in your handicapping, esp during tourney time?

Thanks

i weight 3PT% and opp 3PT% the same [they are mid-tier stats in my valuation methodology] but i think that 3PT differential is a huge stat. if you look at boxscores, you'd be surprised how often a game that seems like an aberration is explained by teams deviating from their standard 3PT diff.

Cleveland State/Butler last night is a great example. CSU has 3PT diff of -0.2 [gets outshot from 3 by 0.2 3-pointers per game] while Butler is +2.6. that was the single biggest stat heading into that game. you'd expect CSU to get outshot by 3 3s, but when they made 10 to Butler's 4 [a 9-make or 27-point departure from the norm]. that stat alone turned the game. if that stat is normal or close to normal, it's hard to see where CSU finds enough offense to win.

most important stat is capping is rather mundane, but it's been fairly definitely shown to be point differential.