My good friend has a $600 future/long shot bet that pays $34,000 if Kentucky wins the National Championship. What is the best way to go about hedging this bet?
-
-
Throw some money on Wisconsin ML... Then throw some money on who ever wins UCONN or FloridaComment -
Your ticket is currently worth around $7k.
To guarantee that payout right now:
Go to a reputable book and place $26.5k on Kentucky not to win it all (Pinnacle have this market, others probably do also).
If you don't have $26.5k to hedge now, then you need to step your way thru:
1: Watch Ucon/Fla game and root for Ucon.
2. Bet Wiscy to beat Kentucky in second Final 4 game (if Ucon have won by now then your ticket is worth much more than $7k; maybe 10-12).
The amount you need to bet on Wiscy v Kentucky will depend on the result of the first game.
Bet Wiscy at the spread v Kentucky (+2). Why not? This way you could middle it and win both ways, and you'd be pissed if Kentucky won by 1 point.
If Wiscy win the sweat is over. You have $7-12k (dependent on whether Fla or Ucon have advanced) in your (friend's) sky rocket, and you can then congratulate each other on reading this.
If Kentucky beat Wiscy, you then have around $25k left with which to continue to hedge, and you will then need to bet the other side in the Final.
Good luck. I'd hedge it too.
p.s. You should be able to sell it for $5-6k on the street right now. It's guaranteed worth at least $7k.
p.p.s. Yes, I realise my figures are not exact, but I think they are roughly correct.Comment -
One other thing.
If you are of the belief that Vegas/Atlanta/Sicily/Columbia manipulates results, then just bet Wiscy money line rather than the spread.Comment