I saw SportsInsights posted Iowa St opened as a 1.5-point favorite. That line quickly moved. Call me a "square" but I'll be taking UNC somewhat heavy (minimum of 2x) when my books releases the line.
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
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Cyclones a different team without NiangComment -
Not sure if I mis-read the information I saw or the line is on a see-saw but now I'm seeing a lot of Iowa St -1.5 out there. That's roughly around where I thought the line would be (was thinking Iowa St in the -2.5 area. Still going to fire on UNC today with the intentions of possibly adding more tomorrow.Comment -
I'm a homer but I really didn't see how Iowa St. was going to hang with our size even before Niang got hurt. The tallest player they have that doesn't trip over his own feet is 6-6. Brice Johnson & McAdoo are 6-9 and athletic and Iowa St. has nobody that can even begin to bang with Meeks down low. If their 3's are not falling they may get blown out, and if their 3s are falling UNC will still be able to keep it close. Also doesn't help that they had no bench to begin with and now they have NO bench.Comment -
There is NO doubt in my mind that NC +1.5 is the correct side. This line should be NC -4. No team can lose a player of Niangs caliber in the most crucial of situations and not be affected psychologically and strategically. The current line is primarily a factor of the huge money bet on the tournament by silly Willies looking to give their money away.
The only caveat with this bet is that frequently in a situation like this, the injured team comes out like an adrenaline fueled fury ball so the best bet could be on the 2H. I will be putting a half unit on NC +1.5, and if I am getting better than a pregame pick at halftime I will put another half unit on NC. If you want to be super conservative, wait until halftime and bet it if you are getting pregame NC +2 or better.
BOL
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I personally already locked in on UNC +1.5. McAdoo can't get into foul trouble and Paige needs to have a stellar performance, something he basically does every game. Iowa St's offense is really fun to watch, but hoping they're off a bit tomorrow and the Tar Heels take advantage of it. There's a possibility the Cyclones rally behind Niang's injury but with such a short turnaround I see it favoring UNC slightly. Should be a good game either way. I will also be looking into Creighton and Tennessee.Comment
