C-Batch Brackets 2014 Postseason Plays (53.1% Reg Season)

[CGBatch]

This was my first year posting my plays to SBR and I did pretty well I'd have to say. All my plays are documented in this thread http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-baske...013-picks.html. As you can see we hit 53.1% overall and an impressive 54.5% on totals where the majority of my focus is. For the postseason I plan to release totals from all postseason tournaments (Including NIT, CBI and CIT) as well a few select spreads from the NCAA tourney only (No NIT, CBI, CIT spreads). My goal is to get my plays out in the morning, I'm already looking at the NCAA lines for Thursday and Friday so those shouldn't have any problems. Let's kick it off where the regular season ended!

Regular Season Record (2013-14)

Sides: (87-90 ytd)
Totals: (269-225 ytd)
Overall: (356-315 ytd)

Our first play of 2014 postseason is:

541 Under 147.0

Belmont at WI-Grn Bay

[CGBatch]

Start off on the right foot with a winner!

18 March Results:

Sides: 0-0 (0-0 ytd)
Totals: 1-0 (1-0 ytd)
Overall: 1-0 (1-0 ytd)

19 March plays:

669 Under 133.0	Cleveland St at Ohio
631 Under 144.0	Toledo at S Mississippi
655 Under 134.5	Fresno St at TX El Paso

[CGBatch]

Great start as we sweep the board last night!

19 March Results:

Sides: 0-0 (0-0 ytd)
Totals: 3-0 (4-0 ytd)
Overall: 3-0 (4-0 ytd)

20 March Plays:

724 Louisville -16.5	vs Manhattan
717 Albany +21.0	vs Florida

737 Under 152.0	N Dakota St vs Oklahoma
727 Under 120.5	American vs Wisconsin
731 Under 129.5	Wofford vs Michigan

[CGBatch]

20 March Results:

Sides: 1-1 (1-1 ytd)
Totals: 2-1 (6-1 ytd)
Overall: 3-2 (7-2 ytd)

21 March Plays:

839 Under 154.5	LA Lafayette vs Creighton
831 Under 150.5	E Kentucky vs Kansas
849 Under 127.5	Weber State vs Arizona
843 Under 145.0	NC Central vs Iowa State
845 Under 137.0	Ste F Austin vs VCU
825 Under 122.5	Coastal Car vs Virginia

[CGBatch]

21 March Results:

Sides: 0-0 (1-1 ytd)
Totals: 3-3 (9-4 ytd)
Overall: 3-3 (10-5 ytd)

22 March Plays:

529 Under 136.5	Harvard vs Michigan St
527 Under 140.0	Texas vs Michigan
521 Under 124.0	Pittsburgh vs Florida
525 Under 144.5	Oregon vs Wisconsin
517 Under 127.5	Dayton vs Syracuse

[CGBatch]

22 March Results:

Sides: 0-0 (1-1 ytd)
Totals: 2-3 (11-7 ytd)
Overall: 2-3 (12-8 ytd)

23 March Plays:

723 Under 142.5	Baylor vs Creighton
725 Under 159.0	N Carolina vs Iowa State
721 Under 134.5	Kentucky vs Wichita St
731 Under 138.5	St Marys at Minnesota
727 Under 129.0	Gonzaga vs Arizona

[thekoreanmang]

Do you just go Under everything and hope it hits? Is there any reasoning to this?

[CGBatch]

Do you just go Under everything and hope it hits? Is there any reasoning to this?

Pretty much most of the plays come up Under. I'm not exactly sure why it works but it has been. I've been trying to consider how the possibility of overtime creates an externality in sports totals, in theory it has to one way or the other (either inflate number slightly and give up points if game doesn't go to OT; or don't inflate number and give up points if the game does go to OT). I ran a bunch of numbers in excel and created a few filters to apply, if the play fits the criteria then I release it. Currently there is only a filter for overs and not a filter for unders, so unders are much more likely to fit. In the regular season I had 149 overs and 349 unders, though my past data (2007-2013) I've used to create this model only favored 33% more unders (2005-2647 O/U). That leads me to believe some years unders will be favored more disproportionately and others may be closer to even distribution. The real strength of the system relies on the ability to filter certain conferences as my conference games result is almost a full 2% better than my non-conference games. I'm looking to refine the model in the offseason as well as try to create a model for NCAA Football. It's ironic you've asked this today as you'll see today's play goes against the grain.

23 March Results:

Sides: 0-0 (1-1 ytd)
Totals: 2-3 (13-10 ytd)
Overall: 2-3 (14-11 ytd)

24 March Plays:

633 Over 127.0

Texas A&M at Illinois St

[CGBatch]

24 March Results:

Sides: 0-0 (1-1 ytd)
Totals: 0-1 (13-11 ytd)
Overall: 0-1 (14-12 ytd)

25 March Plays:

659 Under 137.0

Belmont at Clemson

[CGBatch]

25 March Results:

Sides: 0-0 (1-1 ytd)
Totals: 0-1 (13-12 ytd)
Overall: 0-1 (14-13 ytd)

26 March Plays:

785 Under 138.0	California at S Methodist
779 Under 139.5	San Diego at Pacific
771 Over 133.5	Illinois St at Siena

[CGBatch]

26 March Results:

Sides: 0-0 (1-1 ytd)
Totals: 2-1 (15-13 ytd)
Overall: 2-1 (16-14 ytd)

27 March Plays:

811 Under 133.5	Dayton vs Stanford
813 Under 136.0	Baylor vs Wisconsin

[CGBatch]

27 March Results:

Sides: 0-0 (1-1 ytd)
Totals: 1-1 (16-14 ytd)
Overall: 1-1 (17-15 ytd)

28 March Plays:

877 Under 129.0	Michigan St vs Virginia
879 Under 136.0	Tennessee vs Michigan

[CGBatch]

Sorry I didn't get this posted before the game started.

28 March Results:

Sides: 0-0 (1-1 ytd)
Totals: 1-1 (17-15 ytd)
Overall: 1-1 (18-16 ytd)

29 March Plays:

513 Under 134.0

Dayton vs Florida

[CGBatch]

29 March Results:

Sides: 0-0 (1-1 ytd)
Totals: 1-0 (18-15 ytd)
Overall: 1-0 (19-16 ytd)

30 March Plays:

719 Under 141.0

Kentucky vs Michigan

[CGBatch]

30 March Results:

Sides: 0-0 (1-1 ytd)
Totals: 0-1 (18-16 ytd)
Overall: 0-1 (19-17 ytd)

2 April Plays:

527 Over 134.5

Fresno St at Siena