Lucky1's Hoops week#18

[Lucky1g]

Last week: 15-8-1


OVERALL***UPDATED*** YEAR TO DATE RECORD
All Selections: 152-119-8-56.1% (DIME players are now up $21,100)
Sides: 113-98-5 54%
Totals: 39-21-3 65%


Regular Selections: 140-111-7 55.8%
side plays: 102-90-5 53%
totals plays: 38-21-2 64%


**UPDATED-COMBINED TOP RATED PLAYS SINCE 2011**
OVERALL: 49-24 67.1%


**TOP RATED**this season now: 12-8-1 60%
side plays: 11-8 58%
totals plays: 1-0-1 100%

[mikmik]

That's a beautiful year

[mikmik]

As usual thanks for posting

[Lucky1g]

On to the 18th week of posting. It's been a season of grinding through highs and lows. If you've been with me from the start, you are sitting on a nice little chunk of cash and your bookie is getting sick of paying you. I'd be interested to hear how many guys out there tail me exclusively and are way up on there book this year?(I know a few of you guys who post in my thread weekly) check in and let me know. I've been Posting on this forum and keeping an updated thread since first week of college football and nfl.(had a great regular season and struggled through the playoffs and bowls) anyways it can become quite a chore at times. My goal is to stick with posting through the NCAA championship game before I take a nice extended break from the forum.The main reason I post is to a) keep myself accountable & b) help the masses on this forum figure out to gamble successfully...

Let's keep it rolling, here we go! Back later with any action for big Monday. As always, cheers!

[mikmik]

Yes sir. I've killed it with you. I play 200 a play and 300 for top plays. And if I like a game that you don't post I play for 25 a game. This year my bookis wondering why I'm so didisciplined. Lol.

[mikmik]

This baseball season I'm going low limit. Saving up for football with you. Going to save around 7000.play 400-500. A play.

[mikmik]

Lucky what books do you use? Do you get banned? Or do you have multiple? How long have you been gambling?

[Heandog]

yes sir a follower for sure 3 years now. No complaints here. Thanks G

[alamo]

Lucky, I have been following from the start. I have slowly increased my plays and play with two books - Pinny and Bet365. Both only in the last week have started to limit me. I wasnt surprised with B365 but when Pinny also limited me that surprised me as they pride themselves on supposedly not icing (as i call it) their clients. Am interested to know what books you play with given that your betting a 1000 per play.

[sportsguy04]

Lucky, I have been following from the start. I have slowly increased my plays and play with two books - Pinny and Bet365. Both only in the last week have started to limit me. I wasnt surprised with B365 but when Pinny also limited me that surprised me as they pride themselves on supposedly not icing (as i call it) their clients. Am interested to know what books you play with given that your betting a 1000 per play.

Local probably

[mikmik]

No way local just wants to keep loosing. G record speaks for himself.

[brandcorytoby]

I have been following you since last basketball season. I have found you to be a great handicapper and your record keeping and posting have been accurate and professional.

Thanks again and looking forward to many more winners!

[Poppa K]

Lucky,,, I don't blindly tail. I do however always check your picks and try not to be on the other side of them as more often than not, that's the wrong side. I do enjoy it when I've already got a pick pending and you post the same. Although those have been off as well, not nearly as often as they've been on.

Appreciate what you do and wish you all the best going forward. Cheers...

[Tacklin Fuel]

Lucky - this is my first year on site and have tailed all your picks this year. I will say I have learned quite a bit from you and your followers post this year on what to do and what not to do. I did not fully incorporate that feedback this year and have not profited as much as I should. I must say its been a learning lesson and looking forward to starting fresh next year. Thanks for your dedication to posting all your picks and helping us all!!

[dwatersalec]

Lucky - I started playing CBB right around the time of the NFL playoffs and started tailing 5 cappers mentioned on capperslist. Luckily, I was smart enough to look at the previous year's ranking where your name was listed. Over the month of January, which is when it turned exclusively to conference play, I decided to abandon the other 4 cappers because of 2 reasons: 1) they had almost exclusively picked favorites (and many of them road faves) and 2) I would find that their lines were always running the other way after they posted their picks. In other words, if they picked Iowa -4, I would find that close to tip, it would be Iowa -2.5. Almost all of your picks are at lines that move in a way that makes it more of a disadvantage to tail your pick, which means that you were strong at assessing value.

That has actually come to bite me a couple of times as I wait for a line to change and I do not book the play by the tip time. Actually happened last week on your Utah -5 pick vs Colorado. I could only get 5.5 or 6 and waited too long and let it slip my mind. Of course, I felt like a tool when I saw them up by 25 at half.

Keep up the great work and thanks for making the significant time investment and sharing your picks. One thing you will never get from me is that I will never give you grief when a bet is lost. You take the time to research and post and I decide to blindly tail you (because you are tons better than me), that gives me no right to moan. I will just say thank you and go on my way.

[iloseagain]

GL today!

[Nuggets77]

I make it a point to check in every day. It's been a rough season for me this season but fortunately you & the Heandog have been saviors. Extremely solid, sir!

Thank you

[AlCar G.]

As I hope you know, I'm a dedicated follower. I found you about mid season last year and have been with you since. In fact, I got a 5dimes account because the other two sites I use didn't offer many of your plays (totals) and I wanted to be sure I followed ALL of your plays. And I absolutely follow you exclusively. Everyone who is trying to learn must remember this; it cannot be denied that Lucky is profitable every year. If you're going to follow you must play EVERY play, which is hard for me because I travel a lot for my business, but I get it done even if I have to have my wife check it for me...lol. Every capper goes through their variances and you never know when that is going to happen. This is probably the biggest problem with following multiple cappers. Even though all of them might be profitable like Lucky; they all aren't on the same variance cycle. When one is up the other is down, etc. and you'll drive yourself nuts and have "wash" or losing days more times than not. I chose Lucky because I like his style and I think our business sense matches up. Believe me it does take disipline. I can't tell you how many times I would see one of Luck's plays and I'm like, "What is he crazy??? What the hell does he possible see in this???". But I play it and the interesting part is that those always hit. This is why the books are profitable. The favorite of the masses almost never hit. It takes balls to be a profitable capper.

Think about this; did you ever notice that really good cappers that post their plays and "lean" list (plays they arent going to play because they couldn't bring themselves to pull the trigger). Their record on their "leans" is almost always better than their record on their plays. another lesson; don't ignore your gut!!!


As I mentioned in the past, I'm here to learn and I have learned a lot. I'm at the point now where I look at the card and cap myself and see how my plays match up with Lucky's. I'm getting really good at identifying the situations where I'll know it will be one of Lucky's plays. For example, UNC played a make-up game against Duke a few weeks ago. UNC was +2. The money poured in on Duke and no matter how lopsided the money got the line didn't budge. I said to myself, "this will be a Top Rated Play" and it was. I still suck at actually capping and one big thing I need to learn is how to decide on which games to focus on; especially on Saturdays where there are a shitload of games. Right now, I try and look at Lucky's picks and try to figure out what it was that he saw.


As always, thanks for everything my friend and I look forward to your capping insights when you are able. Sorry for the long post again. I'm snowed in at a hotel so had a little time on my hands.

[AlCar G.]

O.K. "G". I hope you don't mind, but I want to take a guess at what you might be looking at tonight. I'm thinking UNC -10.5 will be a play and maybe Xavier and Pitt? Let's see if I've learned anything. haha!!! I didn't "list" them becuase the last thing I want to do is post plays in your thread and confuse people.

[bababooey13]

O.K. "G". I hope you don't mind, but I want to take a guess at what you might be looking at tonight. I'm thinking UNC -10.5 will be a play and maybe Xavier and Pitt? Let's see if I've learned anything. haha!!! I didn't "list" them becuase the last thing I want to do is post plays in your thread and confuse people.

im pretty sure he wont be playing the two biggest public plays on the board but we shall see

[AlCar G.]

im pretty sure he wont be playing the two biggest public plays on the board but we shall see

Yea after posting I regreted putting Xavier out there. As for the other two, my thought process was that UNC couldn't come close to covering a dd number last time and ND ahs been doing well. Pitt has struggled as of late to even win at home let alone cover; so I figured everyone would be on the other side of those two. You're right though brother, we will see. If I didn't even get one right then I got a long way to go beofre doing this on my own. Haha!!

Good luck to us all.

[Lucky1g]

I use 2 locals who have ability to lay off my action to the big wigs in the region. And also use 5 dimes which has been a great resource. They limit my totals plays which sucks but they are reliable and also offer reduced juice which can really help with your profit margins during the course of a season. Paying 5%on losses versus 10% adds up.

What a great response. I appreciate the kind words and this just confirms for me that there's a bunch of you that are starting to "get it" when it comes to beating the odds with me. Hopefully I can make a run at 30k in profits regular and post season combined. One day at a time here..

[Lucky1g]

Kansas State+9

maybe one more, back to post by 6:30 if I play it.

[AlCar G.]

Well Damn! I didn't even get the games right. Haha!!!

Thanks "G"!!!

[Catchn_Picks]

Wow...you really are Lucky to have a great group of followers tailing you. All words are very deserving. All of us run into the difficult situation of playing a game only to see that you have posted the opposite.

You are the only capper that I will reverse my play once you post your position. In capper's world..that is ultimate respect, imo.

Go out and buy yourself a new pair of dancing shoes Lucky...the madness begins.

[Lucky1g]

Notre Dame+11

This ones for u AlCar:

Unc has monster game coming with Duke @cameron. This is your classic trap game, look ahead spot. Although better lately at the foul line, unc has a team is still statistically one of worst teams in country at ft line versus a quality ft shooting team in the Irish. Irish are also have a few nice 3pt shooters that will hopefully make some timely baskets tonight.also worth noting is only 2 of irish's acc losses have been by more then 11 pts. Unc will be very tough tonight and I'm concerned about unc's offensive rebounding. but as far as the spreads concerned, I like the Irish to lose by 8 or 9...BOL

[Mozzie7]

Lucky - I echo the sentiments posted above. I don't post often, but I felt the need to chime in with my support given all you do for the people on this forum.

As a rule, I refuse tail anyone blindly, but I ALWAYS check this thread and at a minimum use your picks as a tool of sorts to see if I missed something in my initial analysis of the card. I often find that I have and end up siding with your selection. You are also the only person on this forum that I won't go against -- if I like a game and you come out on the other side I will not bet it.

Best of luck the rest of the way...

[jimm246]

Lucky you are good people

[mikmik]

G call me crazy but ND ml has a chance

[AlCar G.]

Notre Dame+11

This ones for u AlCar:

Unc has monster game coming with Duke @cameron. This is your classic trap game, look ahead spot. Although better lately at the foul line, unc has a team is still statistically one of worst teams in country at ft line versus a quality ft shooting team in the Irish. Irish are also have a few nice 3pt shooters that will hopefully make some timely baskets tonight.also worth noting is only 2 of irish's acc losses have been by more then 11 pts. Unc will be very tough tonight and I'm concerned about unc's offensive rebounding. but as far as the spreads concerned, I like the Irish to lose by 8 or 9...BOL

Haha!!! Yea only problem is I thought you'd be on UNC, but I see why you went w/ ND now. Also, I thought for sure that the public would be all over ND, but it's quite the opposite.

With ya win or lose. Either way we all have fun. Thanks for the insights too.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Hate betting on teams with too many white guys yikes Nd. Scary part about K-St and Lucky I believe you notice these trends like I do but dogs the public are in love with hardly ever cover unless they win outright. Cats fit the mold tonight but I see the angle with Osu high on their Jayfawks win and Cats needing a sig road win. You see K-st pulling off the upset here?

[jimm246]

Hate betting on teams with too many white guys yikes Nd. Scary part about K-St and Lucky I believe you notice these trends like I do but dogs the public are in love with hardly ever cover unless they win outright. Cats fit the mold tonight but I see the angle with Osu high on their Jayfawks win and Cats needing a sig road win. You see K-st pulling off the upset here?

I hear ya. too many white guy=shoot a lot of 3's to win. if not white dudes are dead meat

[mikmik]

Common baby ND ml let's go lol

[R.P. McMurphy]

Wow Whitey Rollin

[jimm246]

Wow Whitey Rollin

told you white=3's or lose