1st off the whole overthinking thing is horse shit.. I cap the games and play accordingly.. Far as the number some days id be better w less but for myself I've found the more I play the better off I am as I believe in my capping but far as each individual gm u can't control the outcome so the more plays u get in the better chance the good and bad even out, like sure la salle lost but my numbers said they shoulda been favs and not only led most the second half woulda covered if it was for ots which a dog killer..