how does anyone win around here

Conqueror · 01-19-14, 03:45 PM

Find folks to fade (lol)

Will Book · 01-19-14, 03:56 PM

Figure out which way you are being persuaded to play based on the spread and go the other way. If it doesn't hurt when you play it, it probably ain't a winner. Remember books are "given the trash", but they collect the money. So, you bet like an idiot and keep the trash instead of giving it away.

drfunkmaster · 01-19-14, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by Will Book

Figure out which way you are being persuaded to play based on the spread and go the other way. If it doesn't hurt when you play it, it probably ain't a winner. Remember books are "given the trash", but they collect the money. So, you bet like an idiot and keep the trash instead of giving it away.

i told myself to fade myself, but i simply cant . cuz i capped the game. But if i did, i would be in the winning right now. shit.. I think i am worse than brock landers right about now... I forgot how to pick my nose evem, and cant pick the games either. Its terrible..

Will Book · 01-19-14, 06:50 PM

Over 20 yrs. ago, I bought into the premise that Vegas uses the lines to influence people's decisions on certain games. Some games the line is where it should be, but there are games where the number is not, and those are games I focus on for plays. For example, and although this example is about football, it is still applicable to picking college basketball. About 15 yrs. ago, Ga. beat Miss. St. at state 46 - 0. The very next week Miss. State beat Aub. at state 17 - 0. The very next week Aub. played Ga. at Ga. I expected the line to come out at double digits favoring Ga. The line came out at Ga. -2. At game time, you could get all you wanted of Ga. - 2.5. Certainly looks like the lock of the day, and in the ten years I was betting before this game, I would have been all over Ga. I was a twenty dollar bettor at the time this happened. I played Aub for $400. That was the hardest bet I have ever made in my life. Aub. won the game straight up. Again, if it doesn't hurt, it probably ain't a winner. Looks for things that appear easy, but go the other way. I know this is easier said than done, but just ask yourself why is the line what it is, and that will point you in the right direction.

drfunkmaster · 01-19-14, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by Will Book

Over 20 yrs. ago, I bought into the premise that Vegas uses the lines to influence people's decisions on certain games. Some games the line is where it should be, but there are games where the number is not, and those are games I focus on for plays. For example, and although this example is about football, it is still applicable to picking college basketball. About 15 yrs. ago, Ga. beat Miss. St. at state 46 - 0. The very next week Miss. State beat Aub. at state 17 - 0. The very next week Aub. played Ga. at Ga. I expected the line to come out at double digits favoring Ga. The line came out at Ga. -2. At game time, you could get all you wanted of Ga. - 2.5. Certainly looks like the lock of the day, and in the ten years I was betting before this game, I would have been all over Ga. I was a twenty dollar bettor at the time this happened. I played Aub for $400. That was the hardest bet I have ever made in my life. Aub. won the game straight up. Again, if it doesn't hurt, it probably ain't a winner. Looks for things that appear easy, but go the other way. I know this is easier said than done, but just ask yourself why is the line what it is, and that will point you in the right direction.

yes i know what you mean. Just like this oregon game...screams oregon... but thats the wrong side and just as expected. Story of my life...

jtoler · 01-19-14, 10:18 PM

Wrong, wrong, and wrong. Line aint meant to confuse you its to get balanced money even though that never happens. Just dont bet unless you feel you have an edge, people bet too many games thats a big problem. Just because its there doesnt mean you have to bet on it.

Will Book · 01-20-14, 10:39 AM

[QUOTE=jtoler;20930044]Wrong, wrong, and wrong. Line aint meant to confuse you its to get balanced money even though that never happens. Just dont bet unless you feel you have an edge, people bet too many games thats a big problem. Just because its there doesnt mean you have to bet on it.[/QUOTE

I want to thank you for your input. Nobody said the line was meant to confuse. In fact, what I said is that on some games they set the line so there is no doubt which way the public will play. (See Aub. example above in previous post). I also agreed with you, in part that "most" lines were set right, which should get equal or close to the same amount of money on each side. However, books get loaded up on one side every week in certain games. This happens on about 5 or 6 games on any given Sat. in football. I booked for several years, and I know this as the truth and not what I perceive the truth to be. Other books in the area would have the same thing happen to them on the same games. Those are the games on which we made the bulk of our money, and those are the games that had "funny" lines. Our bettors might hit one or two a week, but we won all the others. You are missing the point that in some games, like the above mentioned Aub. game, the lines are set to insure that you take a particular side. Not so you will be confused and accidently take GA, which is why the line never went to Ga. -3 although everybody was taking Ga. This is what I call a trap. As for an edge, this has produced profits for me for 20 years. I don't think it is a coincidence that it has worked that long, and I am sure as hell not that lucky. Simply put, the line on some games are set to insure you take a particular side. My book told me he was pulling for me when I bet Aub. b/c he only had 4 bets on Aub. and the rest were on Ga. Suckers could not see the trap coming b/c they did not question the reason the line was so low. This process plays out every week in football and basketball.

Now that the game is over, look back at the Iowa v. Minn. gamed played yesterday. Both teams just played Ohio State, and both teams won by 10 pts. over Oh. St. I was looking for a number to come out below 5, but Iowa came out -9.5. Looked easy to take Minny getting that many points, especially as good as they had been playing recently. Furthermore, my book said he was loaded up on Minny. We both know how that worked out for Minn.

Also, you have stated that I am wrong, wrong and wrong about all of this. Yet, I have not heard any profound insight on how you determine your plays, only criticism on how I pick my plays.

LetsStreak2442 · 01-20-14, 10:50 AM

There are 3 kinds of lines. 1 type is a direct 50/50 line where it could go either way. The other is a 60/40 line where Vegas has a pretty good idea of who will win. Then there is a 70/30 line where they know the 30% of the people will win....i.e. every Duke Road Game where they are favored little and lose lol.

Key is to read underneath the line yet also not over analyzing

jtoler · 01-21-14, 05:01 AM

[QUOTE=Will Book;20934036]

Originally posted by jtoler

Wrong, wrong, and wrong. Line aint meant to confuse you its to get balanced money even though that never happens. Just dont bet unless you feel you have an edge, people bet too many games thats a big problem. Just because its there doesnt mean you have to bet on it.[/QUOTE

I want to thank you for your input. Nobody said the line was meant to confuse. In fact, what I said is that on some games they set the line so there is no doubt which way the public will play. (See Aub. example above in previous post). I also agreed with you, in part that "most" lines were set right, which should get equal or close to the same amount of money on each side. However, books get loaded up on one side every week in certain games. This happens on about 5 or 6 games on any given Sat. in football. I booked for several years, and I know this as the truth and not what I perceive the truth to be. Other books in the area would have the same thing happen to them on the same games. Those are the games on which we made the bulk of our money, and those are the games that had "funny" lines. Our bettors might hit one or two a week, but we won all the others. You are missing the point that in some games, like the above mentioned Aub. game, the lines are set to insure that you take a particular side. Not so you will be confused and accidently take GA, which is why the line never went to Ga. -3 although everybody was taking Ga. This is what I call a trap. As for an edge, this has produced profits for me for 20 years. I don't think it is a coincidence that it has worked that long, and I am sure as hell not that lucky. Simply put, the line on some games are set to insure you take a particular side. My book told me he was pulling for me when I bet Aub. b/c he only had 4 bets on Aub. and the rest were on Ga. Suckers could not see the trap coming b/c they did not question the reason the line was so low. This process plays out every week in football and basketball.

Now that the game is over, look back at the Iowa v. Minn. gamed played yesterday. Both teams just played Ohio State, and both teams won by 10 pts. over Oh. St. I was looking for a number to come out below 5, but Iowa came out -9.5. Looked easy to take Minny getting that many points, especially as good as they had been playing recently. Furthermore, my book said he was loaded up on Minny. We both know how that worked out for Minn.

Also, you have stated that I am wrong, wrong and wrong about all of this. Yet, I have not heard any profound insight on how you determine your plays, only criticism on how I pick my plays.

Not sure I was responding to you personally with my reply or not. But if you booked you should know how lines come about, it should be the first thing a handicapper should know before they bet. Yes I know some lines are put out a certain way because they expect it to move a certain way, helps them to get alot of money on a number before moving it to a worse number for bettors betting after the number change. I wasnt criticizing you, if your way is working I surely wouldnt change. I go about plays numerous ways, just depends on the situation alot of times, hardly ever one particular thing, but I look at a ton of stuff before I make the pick, the typical stuff that everyone should be looking at, injuries, ratings, home/road, situation, coaches, style of play vs. opponents' strengths/weaknesses, an occasionally I may lean on a certain trend, always bet small with that though. Nice to hear from you.

Ralphie Halves · 01-21-14, 06:44 AM

This is one of those years in NCAAB where the bettor has no chance, just like NFL was this year. The key is to realize it early.

And nobody ever does/cares.

keitht · 01-21-14, 09:04 AM

martingale system never loses.. look it up