Hi Guys,
Just some quick background: I am a casual bettor (don't wager anything near as serious as most folks on here at least claim to do). I am a big football fan, but once the games slow down and particularly after the super bowl I love watching college basketball.
I love building models to test them out and see how they work. What will usually happen after the tourney is that I forget about them and don't try to improve them.
Now I am booked for Vegas during March Madness and I am determined to build a good model that will help me with the games for the tourney. I was curious if anyone on here has built models using KenPom stats before?
I figure now that we are 5 conference games deep we can start to get a much better idea of who these teams are and KenPom numbers should be much more reliable.
As of now I am simplistically estimating the amount of possessions each team will have, then assigning an Offensive Efficiency number to each team for that game. So for instance tonight I had Minne-Ohio St each having 65 possessions, with Minnesota having an Oeff of 103 (103 points if they had 100 possessions), and OSU with Oeff of 108. The number turned out to be 62.5 possessions, w Minne having 103.28 and OSu a putrid 82.81. So I rightly had Minne but whiffed on the over.
Anyways, I am only a week into this thing and understand this is going to take some time to fine tune and analyze where my blind spots (and KenPom's) are. So anyone that has experience doing this, your 2 cents is helpful. Thank you in advance.
Just some quick background: I am a casual bettor (don't wager anything near as serious as most folks on here at least claim to do). I am a big football fan, but once the games slow down and particularly after the super bowl I love watching college basketball.
I love building models to test them out and see how they work. What will usually happen after the tourney is that I forget about them and don't try to improve them.
Now I am booked for Vegas during March Madness and I am determined to build a good model that will help me with the games for the tourney. I was curious if anyone on here has built models using KenPom stats before?
I figure now that we are 5 conference games deep we can start to get a much better idea of who these teams are and KenPom numbers should be much more reliable.
As of now I am simplistically estimating the amount of possessions each team will have, then assigning an Offensive Efficiency number to each team for that game. So for instance tonight I had Minne-Ohio St each having 65 possessions, with Minnesota having an Oeff of 103 (103 points if they had 100 possessions), and OSU with Oeff of 108. The number turned out to be 62.5 possessions, w Minne having 103.28 and OSu a putrid 82.81. So I rightly had Minne but whiffed on the over.
Anyways, I am only a week into this thing and understand this is going to take some time to fine tune and analyze where my blind spots (and KenPom's) are. So anyone that has experience doing this, your 2 cents is helpful. Thank you in advance.
