wednesday halftime leans

WestsidePete · 02-18-09, 01:38 AM

I just posted on this one as well...but for the entire game...huge rebounding edge in that win and like the +3 in this one....GL

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 04:30 AM

Other leans:
Utah/CSU under 65.5 (half)
Davis/Cal poly under 70.5 (half)
UNLV/Wyoming under 69.5 (half)
Houston -3 (half)

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 05:25 AM

Other halftime leans:

Utah/Colorado St under 65.5 1st half
-I was looking at CSU 1st half scoring last 4 home games. Here are the results of the last 4 home games for CSU.
UNLV 28 CSU 32 (1/14/09)
Air Force 31 CSU 29 (1/20/09)
San DIego St 35 CSU 24 (1-31-09)
TCU 27 CSU 27 (2/7/09)

I think both teams will try to slow down the game especially colorado st. Colorado st does not want to get into a shootout and as a result get blown out of the building. I believe that Utah will do just eneogh to get a win here. I think its harder for teams to get into an uptempo game in the high altitude. CSU has given up 51 points in the first half in each of its last 2 games which were on the road (UNLV and BYU).

Earlier this season, Utah played at Air Force (in Colorado) on Jan 15 and this was the lowest scoring game for both teams as Utah won 57-36. The halftime score was 31-14 utah. THe two teams combined to score 45 1st half points. The same two teams met in Utah on Feb 14 and Utah won 74-59. Air Force led at halftime by a score of 28-27. Teams playing at Air Force, Colorado U, CSU and Denver U get themselves into low scoring games. These teams from Colorado just slow down the game and that is what happened in the first Utah/Air Force game.

Prediction: CSU will slow down the game like they did in their previous home games. This is the only way for CSU to keep the game close. I also do not think UTah is going to get into a shootout in the high altitude of Colorado.

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 09:11 AM

UNLV/Wyoming under 69.5 (1st half)
UNLV plays very defense when playing away. At the same time, they do not score much in away games. Woyming has a tendency to slow down games. Neiither team will score more than 35 points in the first half. I see one team scoring in the low 30's and the other team in the high 20's, UNLV may struggle offensively being in a different time zone. If they do struggle offensively, UNLV will play good defense to keep it close.

Prediction:
UNLV 33
Wyoming 29

BiffTFinancial · 02-18-09, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by hoop guru

UNLV/Wyoming under 69.5 (1st half)
UNLV plays very defense when playing away. At the same time, they do not score much in away games. Woyming has a tendency to slow down games. Neiither team will score more than 35 points in the first half. I see one team scoring in the low 30's and the other team in the high 20's, UNLV may struggle offensively being in a different time zone. If they do struggle offensively, UNLV will play good defense to keep it close.

Prediction:
UNLV 33
Wyoming 29

hoop, like this pick a lot. my forecast for the game is UNLV, 74-65, but i think that seems a little high. wyoming has played some high-scoring games, but is still be definition a slow-down team and would appear to be an under team. their problem is that they are turnover-happy and give up a lot of offensive boards, so opponents get 10 more shots per game than they do, even at home. i think your instinct about style of play for this game is solid, esp for 1H - UNLV will control the game, and their away style dictates a score similar to your prediction.

BiffTFinancial · 02-18-09, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by hoop guru

Other halftime leans:

Utah/Colorado St under 65.5 1st half
-I was looking at CSU 1st half scoring last 4 home games. Here are the results of the last 4 home games for CSU.
UNLV 28 CSU 32 (1/14/09)
Air Force 31 CSU 29 (1/20/09)
San DIego St 35 CSU 24 (1-31-09)
TCU 27 CSU 27 (2/7/09)

I think both teams will try to slow down the game especially colorado st. Colorado st does not want to get into a shootout and as a result get blown out of the building. I believe that Utah will do just eneogh to get a win here. I think its harder for teams to get into an uptempo game in the high altitude. CSU has given up 51 points in the first half in each of its last 2 games which were on the road (UNLV and BYU).

Earlier this season, Utah played at Air Force (in Colorado) on Jan 15 and this was the lowest scoring game for both teams as Utah won 57-36. The halftime score was 31-14 utah. THe two teams combined to score 45 1st half points. The same two teams met in Utah on Feb 14 and Utah won 74-59. Air Force led at halftime by a score of 28-27. Teams playing at Air Force, Colorado U, CSU and Denver U get themselves into low scoring games. These teams from Colorado just slow down the game and that is what happened in the first Utah/Air Force game.

Prediction: CSU will slow down the game like they did in their previous home games. This is the only way for CSU to keep the game close. I also do not think UTah is going to get into a shootout in the high altitude of Colorado.

May like this one better than UNLV 1H under, though I guess the lower number makes them roughly even in my mind and both strong plays. forecast for this game is 72-58, putting it 10 under for the game and which is usually good news for 1H under.

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 11:55 AM

Biff,
Besides losing in the st mary's game, we have lost one under which went over with 4 seconds left in the half. We have done very well when we agree with picks. Both unders are very solid plays. What do you think of the miami ohio +1.5 1st half.

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 12:30 PM

Adding: Cal poly/UC Davis under 70.5

BiffTFinancial · 02-18-09, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by hoop guru

Biff,
Besides losing in the st mary's game, we have lost one under which went over with 4 seconds left in the half. We have done very well when we agree with picks. Both unders are very solid plays. What do you think of the miami ohio +1.5 1st half.

Agreed - just gotta keep it going. I'm not as bullish on Miami-OH 1H +1.5 as I am on the 2 unders, but the same was true of OU last night and that was probably the easiest cover of the evening. My forecast for the Akron game is Akron, 63-60, so Miami covering by 1/2 point for the game. Also, Akron has been hot lately by beating up on the dregs of the MAC and probably is experiencing a little line inflation due to their streak. My biggest concern is that Akron has played some nice first halves, but their 1H stats have, again, been padded by their recent schedule. In light of your analysis of prior match-up and motivational edge above, I'm inclined to follow you on Miami.

BiffTFinancial · 02-18-09, 12:51 PM

Originally posted by hoop guru

Adding: Cal poly/UC Davis under 70.5

Will add that one. Any thoughts on the Ytown St/Cleveland St 1H under? CSU games can go from one media timeout* to another without a single bucket being scored (*can't call it a tv timeout when games aren't on tv). I think it goes under for the game by about 15.

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 01:02 PM

I really do not much about either team (youngstown st or cleveland st). I also like Houston -3 (1st half)at Marshall. Houston is such a better quality team. I think they will be up double digits at halftime. I think this game is easier to cap than Miami (oh).

scotty3698 · 02-18-09, 02:12 PM

So out of these games which would be your top five picks

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 02:17 PM

1. Miami Oh +1.5 1st half (-105)
2. Utah/CSU under 65.5 1st half
3. Davis/Cal poly under 70.5 1st half
4. UNLV/Wyoming under 69.5 1st half
5. HOuston -3 1st half (-105)

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 02:24 PM

I was looking at the spread on MIami (oh) at the greek.com. It was Miami (oh) +1.5 (-105). I also was considering taking Miami (oh) on the ML but the payoff is even money (+100). I was hoping it would be +110 or +115 but no its even money. I get the feeling the books do not want on the ML and that is why the payoff is lousy. Probably know that Miami (oh) is going to cover the halftime ML and the spread. I also took a look at betmaker and the spread is +2 there. I like the laying less wood as is the case here. Lets cash in on some easy money.

BiffTFinancial · 02-18-09, 02:46 PM

forecasts:

Cal Poly, 69-67 [well under the 149.5 number for the game, which makes the 1H under quite attractive based upon recent history; this one also works under your theory of when 2 bad teams meet, look for the under].

Houston, 76-67 [like Houston 1H -3 a lot; Houston is 1H team and Marshall blows plus also has some injury issues tonight. don't like giving points on road 1H, as i think that home teams get some breaks from refs (eg, vandy and texas a&m) but those were at least passable teams. Houston's good and Marshall's a trainwreck playing the likes of Rio Grande in February].

G'town, 65-57 [i've seen g'town play pretty crappy on road and USF is tougher at home this year, so USF +3 1H looks like it has potential, though i note that it appears that you've backed off of that one].

Tennessee, 73-70 [also noted that Miss +2.5 now no longer a play, but fwiw i think i like that one better than USF; tenn is way overrated and sucks on the road].

eatdust11 · 02-18-09, 03:08 PM

I like Houston -4.5 for the entire game... Houston -3 in half one is also very good

BiffTFinancial · 02-18-09, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by eatdust11

I like Houston -4.5 for the entire game... Houston -3 in half one is also very good

With you on Houston for game. I see this as a 9-point win, not accounting for technicals for stepping on guys' faces.

Hells Kitchen · 02-18-09, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

With you on Houston for game. I see this as a 9-point win, not accounting for technicals for stepping on guys' faces.

Dont know about stepping on guys faces,but the chic in your avatar can do something to my face. Preferably sit

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 06:20 PM

Adding UMASS +1 1st half

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:11 PM

Umass 10-2

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:12 PM

UMASS is going to win this game tonite. Take them in the 2nd half too

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:15 PM

15-9 umass with 1256 left in the half

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:17 PM

4-1 miami oh with 1447 left

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:20 PM

6-3 miami with1335 left.

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:24 PM

20-12 umass

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:24 PM

Miami Oh maybe a nail biter

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:25 PM

22-12 umass with 909 left in half

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:27 PM

9-7 miami oh with 902 left in the half

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:28 PM

24-15 umass with 823 left

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:28 PM

12-7 miami with 8 minutes left in the half. wow

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:33 PM

12-10 miami 625 left, what a dull game

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:34 PM

24-16 umass

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:35 PM

14-13 miami oh 532 left

hoop guru · 02-18-09, 07:38 PM

akron 15-14