This is a sleeper that I noticed today

[Pickle_02]

Well, I'm new to the site guys and lately, I haven't exited this site in forever. I've been lurking around but now, I'm being more active.

This is a game that caught my attention. Evansville @ Creighton

Creighton-12
Creighton -6 1h

Creighton is 21-6 SU and 15-8 ATS. They are at 40% from the 3pt. line and a great 76% from the free throw. Pretty damn good for a team as a whole. Evansville is 68% from the FT and a measely 31.3 from the 3pt. line.

Their last meeting was on 1/20/2009.
Creighton 79 Line -1
Evansville 57

Creighton shot 56% from the field 30-53
Evansville shot 39.6% from the field 21-53

Creighton shot 56% from the 3pt. line 10-18
Evansville shot 8.3% from the 3pt. line 1-12

I'm new here so I know you all dont care about this. I just wanna start capping, cause sometimes, I feel bad for just following everyone. Goodluck to everyone

[roadwarrior1]

you can bet that Creighton will not shot that good from 3pt again! and Evansville will not shoot that bad! so considering the numbers will not be that far off of their averages then you will see a much closer matchup.

[Pickle_02]

Yea, we will see how things go. This is just a play that I chose out of my pocket. If it comes in, it comes in, if not, so what? I'm gonna make a small wager of a nickle 1h and nickle fg just to test out the new week.

[BiffTFinancial]

Pickle - I think that you've honed in on a couple of good items here. Creighton clearly superior team, but no way that huge 3-point differential occurs again. That was worth 27 points in game 1, and average for these two teams would be 15 [creighton averages 8 3s per game, evansville 3] esp given that Evansville is normally decent defending 3s [32.9%]. When I capped this one this morning, I came out with Creighton 78-66 - right on the spread, so moved it a point towards the dog at 77-66. Bottomline: Creighton has been so hot that there's not much value in this line, and this line requires a blow-out, so even their great FT shooting probably won't help much b/c Evansville won't keep fouling if lead is double digits. I'm not playing this game, but if I did, I'd probably go with the over or Evansville 1H [revenge plus creighton's overachievement last time vs evansville plus they've played Creighton relatively tough in 1Hs historically and gotten blown away in 2H]. BOL tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

Yea, we will see how things go. This is just a play that I chose out of my pocket. If it comes in, it comes in, if not, so what? I'm gonna make a small wager of a nickle 1h and nickle fg just to test out the new week.

Out of curiosity, which side you taking for each - fave or dog?

[gameday10]

I capped this game for 2-3 hours last night. After I was through I only had a lean with Creighton and was not very confident. I posted a write-up in my thread about it. This also might be a play for the game instead of ATS. What I did come across after capping and number crunching was:

The over might be a play. Both teams on streaks of overs. Creighton's last 4 games have gone over and 5 out of the last 6 have. Evansville last 2 have gone over and 3 of there last 4. Evansville last 4 games have given up average of 50.1% FG and Creighton has averaged 52% the last 4 games. When Creighton makes above 50% FG the over is 7-0. This might be my play for this game. I have not decided. I will have more games later.

[Pickle_02]

Out of curiosity, which side you taking for each - fave or dog?

I'm taking the favorite, YOu? OH yea, u said ur taking evansville. That was last time, and that was playing @ Evansville. This time, they are playing at Creighton. I'm predicting a blowout in my opinion. Ok, it wont happen again, but look at the team stats overall. 40% from the 3pt. line agaisnt a 30% 3pt. And 76% vs 68% from the ft. I know they are just numbers and anything can happen, but I am on a roll lately and before, I wouldnt cap, I would just pick the plays on instinct, and well u know how that can go. I have a better win percentage now, and in the long run, if you do your homework, you should come out on top. Best of luck, my friend

[Pickle_02]

I'm loving the over in this game, I'm just not a big over/under guy

[gameday10]

I'm loving the over in this game, I'm just not a big over/under guy

Neither am I. I usually do not take o/u but today there are 2 I like in Creighton and Austin Peay. These two stood out. I was not even capping the o/u in the creighton game, but after number crunching I came across these.

[Pickle_02]

Neither am I. I usually do not take o/u but today there are 2 I like in Creighton and Austin Peay. These two stood out. I was not even capping the o/u in the creighton game, but after number crunching I came across these.

Yea, these are gonna be my plays.

Creighton -12 fg Nickle
Creighton -7 1h Nickle

Over 64 1/2 1h Nickle
Over 137 fg Nickle