Duke +3.5 and ML

[Owls]

Louisville has been feasting on teams that panic under the press. Duke has the ball handlers and the coaching to attack the press, not just get by it. The way you beat a pressing team is to get easy baskets in transition with sharp passing and not turn the ball over, something Duke is very capable of. Duke alreadyy beat VCU easily earlier in the year and beat Louisville without Dieng, but Louisville was still pressing that game and Duke handled it well.

i don't see Louisville forcing enough turnovers to cover the spread. If Louisville doesn't force a lot of turnovers, they are a worse team than Duke. Their offense is very stagnant, it relies on Russ Smith penetrating. They are a bad jump shooting team so Duke can pack it in and not pay the price. Rasheed Sulaimon is a very good defender, I see him giving Russ Smith a hard time in this game.

I expect a Duke win here. ML at +160 is a steal. Duke wins this matchup vs. Lousiville more than half the time over many games.

[tylerguy02]

I am with you on this. My only problem is that I always get burned when I bet on a Duke game (Like against M St.). I'll probably through a few units on it tonight just in case the line jumps by tomorrow morning. It seems like everyone is riding Louisville dick, but they could not blow out Oregon, who was overrrated by the media.

[pdubb86]

[Frisco]

Duke's D was really impressive last game. This game is a no play for me unless I see something juicy live. Just don't see any real edges to make it worth a bet

[STAY STRONG]

lville moves on.

[Crayzee]

i'm with you on duke but pointspread only I will buy 1/2 pt to + 4

[Owls]

Been waiting for this game since the bracket came out, Duke plays much better as a dog than as a favorite.

[Da Manster!]

Sorry Owls, I'm on the other end...I think Louisville rolls....Like i said in the other thread, I think they win by double digits, let alone cover the spread...the only reason DOOK won the other night was because Seth Curry had a horseshoe up his ass and shot lights out and the fact that Sparty went almost 13:00 minutes in the second half without a FG!...that won't happy today....GL!...at least one of us will be happy!...

[Serbone]

Duke never gets credit but they play great "D". And yes, their guards can handle the press so that will negate a lot of Louisville's advantage.

I worry that Duke is a little light up front, if Plumlee gets in foul trouble (which he usually does) Louisville will flourish. I expect that Pitino will have his kids take it to the hoop early to get Plumlee in trouble. We shall see.

Also, the illness with Louisville... wait until game time, usually somebody goes to the locker room and gives a last minute update. (10 mins before Akron vs VCU, gal says not only PG out, but other starting G out, and a reserve guard, and a reserve center... VCU by 40!). SO I am putting a pinch on Duke, but waiting for the last minute update in case the gal (or whoever) tells us some of the Louisville kids are struggling... they were on antibiotics... a sign that it is significant.