My two big games are MSU/Duke and KU/UofM. I'm not touching the L'ville/Oregon game, and although I like Florida, FGCU is on fire and actually matches up much better than you think size-wise.
KANSAS should beat Michigan, and I think KU has the potential to run the Wolverines out of the court. With UofM's blowout win vs VCU, and how KU has struggled in 3/4 halves this tourney, I think KU-1.5 is the lowest possible spread - it could be as high as 7 or 8 but I think it's on the low end due to low KU stock and too high Mich stock.
Kansas struggles against teams that stretch withey out of the paint. McGary cannot do this, he is a post only guy that can't shoot. And Jordan Morgan hasn't been playing in the tourney. So that leaves Jeff Withey open to go HAM down low on offense and defense. Releford is one of the best defenders in the country - and actually KU's half court D is one of the best in the country. KU has beaten perimeter shooting teams (like Iowa state) and teams with athletic PGs (like OkSt). Michigan will struggle on the glass and in the paint - and will rely on 3 pt shooting. Also, I believe maclemore is due to get hot and go off.
Finally, Bill Self > Boelein all day, and Mich is relying heavily on freshmen while Kansas has a veteran squad who made it to the ship last year.
This MSU/Duke game should be a little closer, and I believe this battle involves the two best coaches in cbb. Msu has the edge matchup wise, as Payne&Nix outmatch Plumlee&Kelly. Payne has more talent than Kelly and won't have a problem guarding his stretch 4 style. Nix has the significant weight advantage over Plumlee - and if you haven't noticed, Plumlee struggled all year against good, big centers (remember Len, twice).
Msu is the better rebounding and more physical team which should give dukey problems. Harris can shoot 3s all day as can Currey. Dawson is a shut-down defender and will probably take Sulaimon out of the game offensively. Appling is a straight up question mark but if he can hold his own, Harris can take over the scoring role.
KANSAS should beat Michigan, and I think KU has the potential to run the Wolverines out of the court. With UofM's blowout win vs VCU, and how KU has struggled in 3/4 halves this tourney, I think KU-1.5 is the lowest possible spread - it could be as high as 7 or 8 but I think it's on the low end due to low KU stock and too high Mich stock.
Kansas struggles against teams that stretch withey out of the paint. McGary cannot do this, he is a post only guy that can't shoot. And Jordan Morgan hasn't been playing in the tourney. So that leaves Jeff Withey open to go HAM down low on offense and defense. Releford is one of the best defenders in the country - and actually KU's half court D is one of the best in the country. KU has beaten perimeter shooting teams (like Iowa state) and teams with athletic PGs (like OkSt). Michigan will struggle on the glass and in the paint - and will rely on 3 pt shooting. Also, I believe maclemore is due to get hot and go off.
Finally, Bill Self > Boelein all day, and Mich is relying heavily on freshmen while Kansas has a veteran squad who made it to the ship last year.
This MSU/Duke game should be a little closer, and I believe this battle involves the two best coaches in cbb. Msu has the edge matchup wise, as Payne&Nix outmatch Plumlee&Kelly. Payne has more talent than Kelly and won't have a problem guarding his stretch 4 style. Nix has the significant weight advantage over Plumlee - and if you haven't noticed, Plumlee struggled all year against good, big centers (remember Len, twice).
Msu is the better rebounding and more physical team which should give dukey problems. Harris can shoot 3s all day as can Currey. Dawson is a shut-down defender and will probably take Sulaimon out of the game offensively. Appling is a straight up question mark but if he can hold his own, Harris can take over the scoring role.