Nate Silver System

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  • coop
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 08-11-11
    • 616

    #1
    Nate Silver System
    Bet any game where Silver's projected winning % (I converted to pt spread) differed with Vegas closer by more than 1. He tracked it in 2011 and it went 26-18: http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...1-popup-v2.jpg

    Today's plays:
    Albany +20.5 (His line: +16.5)
    Ohio State -14 (His line: -16)
    Cincinnati +3.5 (His line: +2.5)
    Wisconsin -6 (his line: -7)
    Northwestern St +20.5 (his line: +17)
    Notre Dame +1 (his line: -2.5)
    Oklahoma +3 (his line: +1.5)
    NC State -4 (his line: -6)

    I don't follow college bball that closely so I figured this was better than throwing darts. This is the sharpest publicly available info IMO, if you are a skeptic read here as to how he does it: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...n-c-a-a-picks/

    Also, for the conversions of winning probability % to point spread, I used the same number (10.36) that he used in 2011. I have no clue whether that is standard or if it would differ from year to year.
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