Machine Choice

[G's pks]

Good Luck tomorrow Machine...there are some followers in here that really need you...

[Machine Choice]

I am looking at Xavier / Pitt.

[Machine Choice]

Musketeer Magic.

Sweet 16
Xavier +6.5

[Machine Choice]

I'll tell you what....I'm gonna add 'Nova +2.5 small tonight ($143 on it).

There's some stuff I like here.

Maybe nothing to this, but the last time Duke was in the city of Boston they lost (against BC on Feb 15). I realize this is a neutral game, but all five of Duke's losses came when they were away from Cameron arena as they will be tonight.

Against Sagarin top 25 competition, Duke is 4-4 and 'Nova is 6-6.

Here's the clincher for me. Against offensive teams avg more than 77 ppg, 'Nova is 9-2 ATS. I think tonight they will take Duke out of their gameplan.

[G's pks]

Good luck with nova.... I like them too... but will stick to U conn which I let the forum pick for me -3.5 (bgt 3)...
Xavier is looking good up to now...

[Machine Choice]

Musketeer Magic.

Sweet 16
Xavier +6.5

GAME OVER

Overall: 69-52 (57%)

[G's pks]

Good luck with nova.... I like them too... but will stick to U conn which I let the forum pick for me -3.5 (bgt 3)...
Xavier is looking good up to now...

Good call machine I won my only game tonight...

[Machine Choice]

Friday #1

Kansas +1.5

[Machine Choice]

Friday Final Play

Syracuse +1

[G's pks]

Nice job tonight Machine...soon your followers will be back... As I mentioned earlier... I liked Nova too... but decided to stick to my one pk winner... Nice night for you 2-0... expect the groupies back soon...

GL tomorrow... G.

[Machine Choice]

I'll tell you what....I'm gonna add 'Nova +2.5 small tonight ($143 on it).

There's some stuff I like here.

Maybe nothing to this, but the last time Duke was in the city of Boston they lost (against BC on Feb 15). I realize this is a neutral game, but all five of Duke's losses came when they were away from Cameron arena as they will be tonight.

Against Sagarin top 25 competition, Duke is 4-4 and 'Nova is 6-6.

Here's the clincher for me. Against offensive teams avg more than 77 ppg, 'Nova is 9-2 ATS. I think tonight they will take Duke out of their gameplan.

GAME OVER

2-0 Thurs

Overall: 70-52 (57.3%)

[G's pks]

tough night for machine 0-2.... I was 0-1 hockey got me better luck tomorrow...

[Machine Choice]

Overall: 70-54 (56.4%)

When the tournament started, I noticed that none of the angles or stats I used to handicap regular-season games could apply in the tournament. But I tried to make them work anyway. Wrong answer.

Here's why they could not work: during the regular season, I was handicapping matchups for teams in the same conference, playing similar strengths of schedule, using coaches who had much experience studying and facing their opponents. Alot of times these games played themselves out on paper before they even started. But in the tournament you get almost none of that.

Instead, the tourament is like starting a new season. My mistake is that I went into this tournament with no clear method of how I was to adjust my handicaping. I did not have a "system" like I used during regular season.

I am going to spend the rest of this night figuring out how I should handicap the rest of this short season. ATS trends are not the answer, or else Kansas should have covered last night. There is an answer but I have to find it.

[G's pks]

Machine enough Bs.... figure out if Louisville and NC. win tomorrow easily.... I think Louisville should get the job done.... College games not my thing.... I like nba... 1-2 today on college ball....

[Machine Choice]

Machine enough Bs.... figure out if Louisville and NC. win tomorrow easily.... I think Louisville should get the job done.... College games not my thing.... I like nba... 1-2 today on college ball....

I am going to handicap all five remaining games, and I am going to post exactly how I capped them. I need to start keeping a diary for capping methodology. I have one for baseball, for college football, and for NCAAB regular season. I need one for the tourney.

[G's pks]

Machine work hard on tomorrows games... Why do I like the favorites so much in both games.... See what you come up with... GL tomorrow! G.

[Machine Choice]

Louisville vs Michigan State

Line: Louisville -6.5 (Greek)

The criteria I used was: 1. NCAA tournament performance 2. Sagarin Predictor model 3. Avg ranking of each team's loss oponent 4. Road ATS 5. Who worked harder in their last game?

I decided to go with whichever team took the majority of these categories.

1. The avg ranking of Louisville's NCAA opponents (Sagarin) was 87. In those games, Louisville went 85/63 in PF/PA. MSU's avg opponent ranking was 59. In those games MSU went 73/64 in PF/PA. Edge to cover the spread: Louisville

2. Sagarin Predictor Model: Louisville by 4.
Edge to cover the spread: MSU

3. Avg Sagarin ranking for each team's losses oponent: Louisville (44), MSU (34). Edge to cover the spread: MSU

4. Road Record ATS: Louisville 12-6, MSU 9-9. Edge: Louisville

5. Who worked harder in their last game? MSU. Edge: Louisville

MY CHOICE: Louisville -6 (bought hook)

[Ticon18]

I agree. Louisville win by double digits or close to. BOL

[G's pks]

Lets Go Louisville!!!

[caseyking2]

BOL good luck fellows lets cash this shit

[Machine Choice]

North Carolina vs Oklahoma

Line: UNC -7

1. Even

2. Oklahoma

3. Oklahoma

4. Oklahoma

5. UNC

My CHOICE: Oklahoma +7

[alukk]

BOL machine. this far im liking UNC and louville. buying 2 points in both games

[sallysnax8]

teaser louisville -2.5 okl +11

[solobass]

Machine and others on this board I would like to propose a few things. First of all, yes your capping has to change dramatically to be successful in this tournament but a lot of conventional wisdom always helps. First round, I bet the ML on all the 12 seeds. 1 win = your money back and 3 of them cashed! Regarding your posting above Machine, I would like to argue that road record ATS is not relevant in these cases. SU records are a much better indicator, especially when you are looking at a true live dog. ATS records can be deceiving unless you break them down even further. More revealing would be how many times has Louisville covered against a top 10 RPI team when they were favored by 5 or more, and conversely for MSU how many times have they covered as a 5 pt dog in the same situation?

That being said, remember the tournament sees so much square money (like the superbowl) and the public usually pounds favorites and overs and the sharps take the dogs and the unders. The only favorite I have bet on is Michigan State (i live 2 miles from campus) so please exercise some smart contrarian betting as well.

[Machine Choice]

Machine and others on this board I would like to propose a few things. First of all, yes your capping has to change dramatically to be successful in this tournament but a lot of conventional wisdom always helps. First round, I bet the ML on all the 12 seeds. 1 win = your money back and 3 of them cashed! Regarding your posting above Machine, I would like to argue that road record ATS is not relevant in these cases. SU records are a much better indicator, especially when you are looking at a true live dog. ATS records can be deceiving unless you break them down even further. More revealing would be how many times has Louisville covered against a top 10 RPI team when they were favored by 5 or more, and conversely for MSU how many times have they covered as a 5 pt dog in the same situation?

That being said, remember the tournament sees so much square money (like the superbowl) and the public usually pounds favorites and overs and the sharps take the dogs and the unders. The only favorite I have bet on is Michigan State (i live 2 miles from campus) so please exercise some smart contrarian betting as well.

Good points. The method I described is so crude that it is a joke. Actually, it's laughable. The problem for me is that I have the intellectual curiosity to devise a relevant system that considers the most important factors affecting the spread, but the lack of time and work/family support to do it. Therefore, I have to come up with these crude systems and cross my fingers.

In my next post, I will show you how I capped the regular season with good (not great) success.

[Machine Choice]

What I need is "startup financing" that would allow me to handicap as a full-time job. If I could only have this, I think there are no limits to what could be accomplished. It would allow me not only to analyze statistical indicators, but also personnel matchups and personnel storylines. These last two components are as important as SIs, but you need time to search them out on the net.

I am in a career that requires most of my free time to be consumed by professional study not related to gambling. That is unfortunate. I envision a day when I can gamble full time for salary, write articles, devise systems, and publish.

[solobass]

What I need is "startup financing" that would allow me to handicap as a full-time job. If I could only have this, I think there are no limits to what could be accomplished. It would allow me not only to analyze statistical indicators, but also personnel matchups and personnel storylines. These last two components are as important as SIs, but you need time to search them out on the net.

I am in a career that requires most of my free time to be consumed by professional study not related to gambling. That is unfortunate. I envision a day when I can gamble full time for salary, write articles, devise systems, and publish.

I just passed my year mark of me leaving the 9-5 world and gambling full time. The profits have been used to start 2 other businesses and best of all the freedom that it allows has been the biggest blessing for me. PM me sometime so we can talk, I think you have what it takes. There are pros and cons for sure though. I have an idea of how you cap CBB games, I believe I read it somewhere in your thread many many moons and pages ago. Having all day to really look at the games has enormous benefits. Sometimes I have my cap done and are waiting for the lines to come out. When you watch the lines all day you can tell when the square money comes in. For example between 12:30 and tip, I expect more money (already at 77%ATS 87%ML) to come in and pump up the Louisville line to 7 before tip. Getting in at the right time means a lot, and saves you sometimes from buying a whole point and just taking the hook or just getting the best possible odds in regards to ML betting.

[Machine Choice]

I just passed my year mark of me leaving the 9-5 world and gambling full time. The profits have been used to start 2 other businesses and best of all the freedom that it allows has been the biggest blessing for me. PM me sometime so we can talk, I think you have what it takes. There are pros and cons for sure though. I have an idea of how you cap CBB games, I believe I read it somewhere in your thread many many moons and pages ago. Having all day to really look at the games has enormous benefits. Sometimes I have my cap done and are waiting for the lines to come out. When you watch the lines all day you can tell when the square money comes in. For example between 12:30 and tip, I expect more money (already at 77%ATS 87%ML) to come in and pump up the Louisville line to 7 before tip. Getting in at the right time means a lot, and saves you sometimes from buying a whole point and just taking the hook or just getting the best possible odds in regards to ML betting.

I posted my NCAAB capping strategy several weeks ago, but then I tweaked it again and reeled of an 11-0 run afterward. I'll post the new version, but it's very long and probably unreadable. It doesn't work in the tourney.

[Machine Choice]

I just passed my year mark of me leaving the 9-5 world and gambling full time. The profits have been used to start 2 other businesses and best of all the freedom that it allows has been the biggest blessing for me. PM me sometime so we can talk, I think you have what it takes. There are pros and cons for sure though. I have an idea of how you cap CBB games, I believe I read it somewhere in your thread many many moons and pages ago. Having all day to really look at the games has enormous benefits. Sometimes I have my cap done and are waiting for the lines to come out. When you watch the lines all day you can tell when the square money comes in. For example between 12:30 and tip, I expect more money (already at 77%ATS 87%ML) to come in and pump up the Louisville line to 7 before tip. Getting in at the right time means a lot, and saves you sometimes from buying a whole point and just taking the hook or just getting the best possible odds in regards to ML betting.

I am curious how you are able to do this full-time if you do not live in Las Vegas unless you are a bookmaker yourself. As far as online, I have had problems structuring my payouts without raising legal eyebrows. I live under constant worry.

[Achilles15]

Louisville vs Michigan State

Line: Louisville -6.5 (Greek)

The criteria I used was: 1. NCAA tournament performance 2. Sagarin Predictor model 3. Avg ranking of each team's loss oponent 4. Road ATS 5. Who worked harder in their last game?

I decided to go with whichever team took the majority of these categories.

1. The avg ranking of Louisville's NCAA opponents (Sagarin) was 87. In those games, Louisville went 85/63 in PF/PA. MSU's avg opponent ranking was 59. In those games MSU went 73/64 in PF/PA. Edge to cover the spread: Louisville

2. Sagarin Predictor Model: Louisville by 4.
Edge to cover the spread: MSU

3. Avg Sagarin ranking for each team's losses oponent: Louisville (44), MSU (34). Edge to cover the spread: MSU

4. Road Record ATS: Louisville 12-6, MSU 9-9. Edge: Louisville

5. Who worked harder in their last game? MSU. Edge: Louisville

MY CHOICE: Louisville -6 (bought hook)

GENIUS!!

EDGE: Michigan state, dont tell us how you capped it , it doesnt matter anyway, just give us your plays, maybe the next one will work out, we are all rooting for you

[Machine Choice]

GENIUS!!

EDGE: Michigan state, dont tell us how you capped it , it doesnt matter anyway, just give us your plays, maybe the next one will work out, we are all rooting for you

If you tailed me, you deserve what you get. Don't tail. Do your own work and form your own opinions.

[Machine Choice]

In my last 22 plays I am 4-18. With the way the Sooners are playing, I'm pretty sure that will go to 4-19. If I had TRIED to do that badly I couldn't have. You can't make this stuff up. All I can do is laugh, hit the bottle, and stay away from my account until I ride this out.

[solobass]

damn right machine form your own opinions and tail nobody!

[Vonnegut]

NCAA tournament is tough. I had a pretty bad year this year in NCAA, started losing a bit of money management discipline during the last month and ended up a measly 4 units. I am barely over the .500 mark units wise in the tournament. The lines have been sharp and the angles few and far between.

57% of the course of a season is nothing to sneeze at.

[solobass]

NCAA tournament is tough. I had a pretty bad year this year in NCAA, started losing a bit of money management discipline during the last month and ended up a measly 4 units. I am barely over the .500 mark units wise in the tournament. The lines have been sharp and the angles few and far between.

57% of the course of a season is nothing to sneeze at.

hey it is still profitable which is better than 80% of people here on SBR. every time i get away from the boards i seem to do better than when i am on here. hey just go back to the drawing board we have another year's worth of data to analyze that can help us next year that is the way i see it.