Today's Not-Popular but Winning Plays

kuyyo_morro · 02-06-13, 01:01 PM

Thank you. Added a parlay with your picks.

mandude · 02-06-13, 03:06 PM

I haven't had time to look into the others yet but E. Mich really stands out to me. I don't understand why they're a 2 pt home dog. It doesn't make sense to me. Not that the Eagles are a great team but they've been solid at home all season & Buffalo hasn't done anything to warrant this line in my opinion.

ashulga · 02-06-13, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by mandude

I haven't had time to look into the others yet but E. Mich really stands out to me. I don't understand why they're a 2 pt home dog. It doesn't make sense to me. Not that the Eagles are a great team but they've been solid at home all season & Buffalo hasn't done anything to warrant this line in my opinion.

Exactly, but 70% of the public is on Buffalo, that's why. They know they can shaft the public for few pts and still get away with this, just like they are doing now. So we are getting about 4 points of value here as real spread should me E MICH-2. 3 out of 4 dogs I listed I say have 50/50 chance winning straight up so any points we are getting is advantage for us, not to mention fading the public usually helps as well.

ashulga · 02-06-13, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by kuyyo_morro

Thank you. Added a parlay with your picks.

BOL, Let's hit all 4. I am not big fan of parlays though as you can have great night, go 3 for 4 and have nothing to show for it. Best way is to make slow and steady gains vs going for it all with parlay. I will do two team parlay max and usually if I do that I will play both sides separate as well so at least if one hits I got something to show for it.

mandude · 02-06-13, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by ashulga

Exactly, but 70% of the public is on Buffalo, that's why. They know they can shaft the public for few pts and still get away with this, just like they are doing now. So we are getting about 4 points of value here as real spread should me E MICH-2. 3 out of 4 dogs I listed I say have 50/50 chance winning straight up so any points we are getting is advantage for us, not to mention fading the public usually helps as well.

I agree. I already had my eye on UNC Wil today. GAST is a better team but they have no business being a 5pt road fav. This line is over-inflated big time. I like your plays tonight. You should show a profit tonight. GL.

Da Manster! · 02-06-13, 04:06 PM

I've got Georgia St (-3.5)!...bought a 1.5bucket @ -140 to get the line down from 5....I don't know bro...NC-Wilmington sucks moose dong...but may the best man win!....

....hell, we could middle this game and have it land on 4 and we'll both happy!...

ashulga · 02-06-13, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

I've got Georgia St (-3.5)!...bought a 1.5bucket @ -140 to get the line down from 5....I don't know bro...NC-Wilmington sucks moose dong...but may the best man win!....

....hell, we could middle this game and have it land on 4 and we'll both happy!...

I will take the middle @4. I hope we all win. My take is no way you should lay 5 pts with a team with 4-7 road record going against the team that is 7-2 at home. UNC Wilmington can easily win this game straight up. Don't look to deep into overall records because those don't matter as much in these situtations. BOL

Da Manster! · 02-06-13, 04:44 PM

yeah, but you have to consider that 7 - 2 home record don't mean crap when you play schools like Mother of Mary for the Blind, JJGold's Culinary school of Fine Arts, Coker, etc!...

...but seriously, all kidding aside, no way in hell could I back a school like NC-Wilmington that has lost 8 out of 11, and 4 out of the last 5....The wheels have come off and they are downright terrible at the moment...They've gotten blown out in back-to-back CAA games!...here are the results of their last 5 games including an 18 pt beat down at the hands of Georgia ST....

Jan 23	@Georgia St.	Lost 63-81	7-11 (2-4)
Jan 26	@Hofstra	Won 57-51	8-11 (3-4)
Jan 28	James Madison	Lost 56-63	8-12 (3-5)
Feb 2	@Delaware	Lost 56-71	8-13 (3-6)
Feb 4	@Towson	Lost 68-81	8-14 (3-7)

ashulga · 02-06-13, 06:45 PM

adding Clippers under 185.5 nba.

ashulga · 02-06-13, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

yeah, but you have to consider that 7 - 2 home record don't mean crap when you play schools like Mother of Mary for the Blind, JJGold's Culinary school of Fine Arts, Coker, etc!...

...but seriously, all kidding aside, no way in hell could I back a school like NC-Wilmington that has lost 8 out of 11, and 4 out of the last 5....The wheels have come off and they are downright terrible at the moment...They've gotten blown out in back-to-back CAA games!...here are the results of their last 5 games including an 18 pt beat down at the hands of Georgia ST....

Jan 23	@Georgia St.	Lost 63-81	7-11 (2-4)
Jan 26	@Hofstra	Won 57-51	8-11 (3-4)
Jan 28	James Madison	Lost 56-63	8-12 (3-5)
Feb 2	@Delaware	Lost 56-71	8-13 (3-6)
Feb 4	@Towson	Lost 68-81	8-14 (3-7)

I am sticking with them lol. But my local kinda screwed me I got the line of only +4, was hoping for 5, but I am sticking with it. BOL with your plays