Wave Theory Experiment

[Fishscale]

Completely got moosed on the Blazers by some crazy 16-0 run with 5 minutes left. However the list I made went 16-7. I played 4 plays off it and went 1-3. Just my fukkin luck.

Something I've noticed. I'm somewhat familiar with the Elliot wave and from my understanding it goes in cycles, and that's because whatever you're investing in goes 365 days/yr, until the company folds up.

I already graphed out 8 nba teams, as well as the over/unders, and the NHL over/unders, which includes all games played thus far. I've noticed a similar theme in the waves. Being that a college basketball season is roughly 40 games and an nba season is 82, there's really only enough time for 2 big waves and corrections with nba and 1 wave and correction for college. Out of the 8 teams done, the majority have either hit the first big wave, or are in the lull period.

The Oklahoma City Thunder graph looks different from the rest. It just goes up and up. No real correction. The Jazz were on my list, I figure sooner or later the Thunder have to stop covering consistently, and they did for tonight.

And the Heat seem to hover around the 0 point, which is ideal for a bookmaker being that they're a public play 90% of the time. The other teams done (Jazz, Blazers, Raptors, Nuggets, Warriors, Rockets) all show similar patterns with a wave and correction.

[Fishscale]

It's been some time since I engaged in a thread at sbr because it's overflowing with snot-nosed punks or pathetic degens starving for validation. Refreshing to run across a thread with some intellect behind it.

Personally, I haven't applied the wave theory to how I pick my games.

Looks like your model is off to a good start. However, I suspect that over-reliance on any single principle will, sooner or later, gravitate to around 50% (give or take a few percentage points). Vegas is too efficient and it will adapt.

For example, there was a time when the zig-zag theory was profitable during nba playoffs. Eventually, the market adapted and those who wagered based on that theory broke even at best.

In my experience, a confluence of several fundamental principles will yield more consistent results. I am not saying dump the wave theory but keep an eye out for ways to incorporate it into a more sophisticated model.

Absolutely. I'm trying to spot progression/regression and apply it to different spots.

[EVPlus]

Completely got moosed on the Blazers by some crazy 16-0 run with 5 minutes left. However the list I made went 16-7. I played 4 plays off it and went 1-3. Just my fukkin luck.

Something I've noticed. I'm somewhat familiar with the Elliot wave and from my understanding it goes in cycles, and that's because whatever you're investing in goes 365 days/yr, until the company folds up.

I already graphed out 8 nba teams, as well as the over/unders, and the NHL over/unders, which includes all games played thus far. I've noticed a similar theme in the waves. Being that a college basketball season is roughly 40 games and an nba season is 82, there's really only enough time for 2 big waves and corrections with nba and 1 wave and correction for college. Out of the 8 teams done, the majority have either hit the first big wave, or are in the lull period.

The Oklahoma City Thunder graph looks different from the rest. It just goes up and up. No real correction. The Jazz were on my list, I figure sooner or later the Thunder have to stop covering consistently, and they did for tonight.

And the Heat seem to hover around the 0 point, which is ideal for a bookmaker being that they're a public play 90% of the time. The other teams done (Jazz, Blazers, Raptors, Nuggets, Warriors, Rockets) all show similar patterns with a wave and correction.

I confess I dropped a unit on Portland last night as the play fit my model. That's the high variance in sports wagering and why money management so critical. Shit happens and pity anyone who goes all-in on any single event.

There are teams that simply will NOT obey any established model. Old Dominion is one example in college hoops. IMO, this is why the ability to adapt is so important. Some teams, for me, are simply no plays.

[surfpunk17]

That Portland game was ridiculous. Last I checked, it was 94-40 Blazers with just a few minutes left... Unreal.

Anyway, you're mostly correct about the cycles. The general idea behind EW is that these patterns are fractal. So the idea being that if you were looking at a one year chart of a stock, and comparing it with a 1 day chart of the same company, you could in theory identify similar patterns despite the huge difference in time. Obviously with CBB, you've only got 40 games, so there is only 1 chart per team.

From what I've seen so far, it looks like the 70% of teams in CBB are at least somewhat fitting into a pattern. From those I'd say more than half are either nearing the end of the first cycle or beginning a second. Old Dominion is a great example of a team not fitting into any pattern whatsoever. There are a good amount of these teams. For the most part they should be avoided.

Fish, I'm stoked someone else is looking into this as well. Obviously 11 games isn't a big enough sample size to conclude anything, but I really do believe there is something here. Very interested to see how your over/unders turn out as that's what I plan on using for MLB season.

BOL

[surfpunk17]

2/13/13

SDSU +5.5

Record 8-3-0

[alamo]

Dam, Got hooked.

[surfpunk17]

2/14/13

Montana +7

Record 8-4-0

[Fishscale]

Just like the Blazers the night before that SD State play was an out of the ordinary late cover involving fluke turnovers and phantom fouls. Eff it, just count it as a win. Just kidding.

[surfpunk17]

2/15/13

Iona -2

Record 8-5

[Fishscale]

Georgetown is on a serious wave right now. Good luck tonight.

[surfpunk17]

Yea they are.. Hard to say where it's gonna end. Definite avoid game for me.. BOL

[surfpunk17]

2/16/13

Kansas St -5

Record 8-6-0

[ghislaine]

Tailing

[ghislaine]

Back at it ? Turn it back around to making again

[surfpunk17]

2/18/13

Iona +3

Record 9-6-0

[tjohnstone3]

2/18/13

Iona +3

Record 9-6-0

Phew, this one was tight! Looking forward to seeing what you got for tonight!

[surfpunk17]

2/19/13

Virginia Commonwealth +3

Record 10-6-0

[surfpunk17]

2/20/12

Charleston -2.5

Record 10-7-0

[ghislaine]

On it

[BlitzTheBooks]

2/20/12

Charleston -2.5

Record 10-7-0

Handicapping alone this is my biggest play of the day. Good to see your angle lining up with it

[surfpunk17]

2/21/12

Stanford -1.5

Record 10-8

[chosen4th]

2/21/12

Stanford -1.5

Record 10-8

AHHHH i really want to take ore state

[surfpunk17]

2/22/13

Darthmouth +11

Record 11-8

[tjohnstone3]

2/22/13

Darthmouth +11

Record 11-8

Thanks, didn't tail last night as you were against the Crusher so just laid off. Saved me an L!