We went 10-0 yesterday. Let's see what we can do today.
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3 Big Favorites I'm not sure about
Memphis -27
Marquette -23
Arizona -28
The prediction model actually says the dogs are the right play in these 3 games. The model gave true spreads of:
Marist +11
Central Michigan +15
Loyola Marymount +15
I'm still on the fence on these 3 games. Central Michigan seems like the line is way off. Central Michigan isn't that bad of a team.Comment -
Of these three games, Marist + 27 seems to be the best play.Comment -
I tailed you on
Cent. Mich
Clemson ML
Ohio State
and Purdue
I'm terrible at college ball so win or lose, who cares.Comment -
Ohio St St Louis Clemson Duke Houston all dogs could winComment -
will you post your most confident plays curious? thanks! and congrats on going 10-0Comment -
Since I don't flat bet you can tell what I think the win probability is by the amount of units to win for favs and the amount of units at risk for dogs.
I use a unit system of 10-300 units. 10 units means the play is marginal "so what the hell". 200 units or above means that i think the line that the books are setting is way way off. Between those two extremes I bet the probability using the kelly criterion with a 1% risk of ruin.
So, the short answer is the more money risked the better I like the play.
My system works well across a large number of plays so I don't advise people to pick and choose. Keep in mind that I could care less about win - loss %, what I care about is number of units won. If you had followed all of my picks this year (I started posting on Nov 25) and you were playing $10 a unit, you would be up $69,000.00. $100 a unit and you would be up $690,000, A dime per unit and you would be up $6.9 million! LOLComment -
[/QUOTE] If you had followed all of my picks this year (I started posting on Nov 25) and you were playing $10 a unit, you would be up $69,000.00. $100 a unit and you would be up $690,000, A dime per unit and you would be up $6.9 million! LOL[/QUOTE]
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Horse shitComment -
curious what do you use to make plays?
what is your record in previous seasons?Comment -
gimme one for sure bet tonight=)? plz?Comment -
If you had followed all of my picks this year (I started posting on Nov 25) and you were playing $10 a unit, you would be up $69,000.00. $100 a unit and you would be up $690,000, A dime per unit and you would be up $6.9 million! LOL[/QUOTE]
Blah Blah Blah
Horse shit[/QUOTE]
Do the math yourself crackhead, my picks are all public and all made before game time.Comment -
I started making picks in July of 2007. For MLB that year I was absolutely on fire. NCAAB is my best sport. My win loss record is a solid +60% for all sports, but remember I don't care about win loss I care about number of units won. My college football record in terms of units won is ridiculous because I am good at picking big dogs on the moneyline.
I stopped posting in sbr several months ago because I got tired of being harassed by idiots.
I found I seem to do better when I post my plays in a public place. Not sure why.Comment -
Don"t Stop Posting Man A Lot Of People Here Respect Your Hard Work Congrats On Last Night.Comment -
damn, against you on the South Carolina game and the Southern Mississippi game. With you on the others thoughComment -
I create a mathematical model of how strong the team will be if they play today. I take into account a laundry list of stats which are good predictors of future play ability for that sport. I weigh strength of schedule very heavily. My system works better for college than for pros for some reason. I also find that lines in colllege games can be way way off to a much higher degree than in the pros. I weigh regional rivalry for teams that that matters. Some teams are going to crush you no matter where you play, the game could be in northern Greenland adn they will crush you. Some teams are almost impossble to beat at home but don't seem to give a shit on the road. I try to figure out which teams have a regional rivalry bonus.
Something I noticed about west coast teams, when they play on the west coast against east coast teams they are brutal. The line means almost nothing. But these teams are very inconsistent, you never know which team is going to show up. I like betting these west coast teams when they play at home against an east coast team and the west coast team has a history of being tough at home and they are a big dog. Pacifica met this criteria not too long ago and blew out whoever they were playing even though they were an 8 point dog. I had them on the moneyline.
I also look at trend because the lines seem to have memory and there is a lag time for lines to adjust to a team that is playing way differently now than they were a few weeks ago. What I means by this is, suppose a team was blowing everyone off the court the first two weeks of the season. And for the next 5 days they have just blown. The line will still reflect how "good" they were the first two weeks for some time.
You would have made a big pile of money on Tampa Bay in MLB this year the first month of the season because TBay was a very different team comared to the year before but the lines were being set based on the year before. I made a post about TBay just prior to the season start that talked about this.Comment -
nice record to date BOL i like a few plays on your card as for smucksmith the key word was IF you followed and place the amount of units bet you would be plus unitsComment -
Yeah, you are one rich guy I guess. Probably sitting there in your apartment with the kerosene heater and the TV with rabbit ears.....Comment -
yeah I know So. Miss is supposed to be pretty good this year, but South Alabama has already went to Louisville and Ole Miss. They played Arkansas really tough and I think already playing tougher teams on the road will take a little of So. Miss's home court edge off.Comment -
niceComment -
curious which sports book do you use or is it local?Comment -
CW
He is betting $10 a gameComment -
HEY shit chuck where's your plays this guy went 10-0 last night how did you do?
The guys giving FREE solid picks more than I can say for you.Comment -
Actually SHIT CHUCK nobody wants your shit plays go kill yourselfComment -
goodluck tonght Curious with you on alot of themComment -
Back to bussiness thinking possible 3 to 4 team parlay
MInn_6.5
St.Louis+8
Washst -20
Dayton _19.5
anything you would change or like better? THANKSComment -
will do thanksComment -
I use a wide array of different books both online, local, and Vegas. I limit plays with any one book and I don't let any one book owe me very much money. I travel a lot and I am in Vegas a lot. Plus I earn points with the wife by taking her to Vegas from time to time.
you can ask anyone who knows me why I do this.
The wife was objecting to sports betting until I started playing some in her name and paying her winnings to her in cash. LOLComment -
Think I will drop St.louis like the pick but three is hard enough . Your right we all have better things to do like making money.Comment
