Missouri St. +13.5

[Jago2008]

The Missouri State Bears are a team rounding into form since entering Missouri Valley play:


Missouri State is 3-1 SU & a perfect 4-0 ATS in MVC play. They have been covering the spread consistently in conference action and overall lately. They opened with a 70-59 home victory over Southern Illinois as a 5-point underdog. They proceeded to lose at Evansville 59-62 as a 13-point underdog and also winning at Drake 77-65 as a 10-point underdog.

Furthermore they beat Illinois State 62-55 as a 10-point home underdog. Missouri State has beaten the spread by a combined 65 points in its four conference games. I feel with 13.5-point buffer, especially at home against a team that's been competitive against consistently over the last few years this is a solid bet.

1/18/2012	Creighton (2)	66	30	W	L	25-45 55.6%	11-14 78.6%	5-16 31.2%	33	14
	Missouri State (144.5)	65	34	L	W	25-64 39.1%	10-14 71.4%	5-20 25.0%	30	3
12/28/2011	Missouri St (144.5)	77	32	W	W	29-60 48.3%	12-14 85.7%	7-17 41.2%	34	7
	Creighton (10)	65	34	L	L	21-55 38.2%	14-20 70.0%	9-21 42.9%	35	12
3/5/2011	Creighton (0)	50	0	L	L	0-0 0.0%	0-0 0.0%	0-0 0.0%	0	0
	Missouri St (4)	60	0	W	W	0-0 0.0%	0-0 0.0%	0-0 0.0%	0	0

Miss St. + 13.5 GL.

[SanFran]

Creighton wins by 17+

[hougigo]

I'm actually feeling MSt too.... but I know I'll probably get burned by them

[nicktran808]

I've been wary of Creighton's big spreads but...

Missouri State handed Creighton a loss at home last year. Creighton beat them by 1 the next leg @MoSt. I think this will be a huge revenge game for Creighton

Creighton has also been shooting ridiculously hot. Drake never had a chance.

Also let's take a look at these two graphics...




14 points is a pretty small spread for Creighton to beat the sh*t out of a shitty MVC team like MoSt. I was expecting 17 or 18 after the beatdown on Drake.

Creighton's defense is also light years improved ahead of last year's #222 ranked defense. One site I'm looking at briefly has them at #219 last year, and at #61 this year.

The team also doesn't need to rely on Doug McD anymore either. Double teaming Doug leaves Grant Gibbs wide open to pick apart the defense. It also takes away from sharpshooting Ethan Wragge on the perimeter to drain 3s. Three leg Greg Echenique is also playing like the big ass man he is this season by going hard in the paint. I think he's gonna have a big game after botching a few easy dunks and layups against Drake, dropping him from #4 in FG% to #5 in the nation up until that game.

Fade the homer if you want, but I'm putting my money on Creighton ATS (along with Creighton in a teaser w/ Broncos -3) for the first time in a while.

[Jeff Grant]

Very difficult game to handicap - Missouri State has had trouble rebounding this year - but can definitely defend the perimeter

[dumbmoney]

Missouri State definitely seems like they are improving as a team. The game against So. Ill was the turning point for them, and when they started to come together more, and easily won SU as a big dog. But still I respect Creighton and their potential to blow teams out enough that I'm laying off this game. Good luck.

[Jeff Grant]

Missouri State definitely seems like they are improving as a team. The game against So. Ill was the turning point for them, and when they started to come together more, and easily won SU as a big dog. But still I respect Creighton and their potential to blow teams out enough that I'm laying off this game. Good luck.

Everything must go right for the Bears to stay within this number - gotta let the JQH Arena work its magic

[Louisvillekid1]

Great work Jeff,

We totally agree tonight...

Capped this game exactly the same...

[Jeff Grant]

Great work Jeff,

We totally agree tonight...

Capped this game exactly the same...

Bears just need to stay above the slippery slope - don't fall behind by double digits in the first half

[Jago2008]

Very difficult game to handicap - Missouri State has had trouble rebounding this year - but can definitely defend the perimeter

Thanks for your input Jeff.

I like almost everything about this bet, Miss. St. has played well and up to competition in Missouri valley conference games, furthermore we aren't on the public side. Yes Creighton can blow any team out on any given night but they've struggled here, I think Miss. St. will keep it in this buffer of 14 as I originally posted.

[Jago2008]

I've been wary of Creighton's big spreads but...

Missouri State handed Creighton a loss at home last year. Creighton beat them by 1 the next leg @MoSt. I think this will be a huge revenge game for Creighton

Creighton has also been shooting ridiculously hot. Drake never had a chance.

Also let's take a look at these two graphics...




14 points is a pretty small spread for Creighton to beat the sh*t out of a shitty MVC team like MoSt. I was expecting 17 or 18 after the beatdown on Drake.

Creighton's defense is also light years improved ahead of last year's #222 ranked defense. One site I'm looking at briefly has them at #219 last year, and at #61 this year.

The team also doesn't need to rely on Doug McD anymore either. Double teaming Doug leaves Grant Gibbs wide open to pick apart the defense. It also takes away from sharpshooting Ethan Wragge on the perimeter to drain 3s. Three leg Greg Echenique is also playing like the big ass man he is this season by going hard in the paint. I think he's gonna have a big game after botching a few easy dunks and layups against Drake, dropping him from #4 in FG% to #5 in the nation up until that game.

Fade the homer if you want, but I'm putting my money on Creighton ATS (along with Creighton in a teaser w/ Broncos -3) for the first time in a while.

I just think this is too many points to give an underdog at home, furthermore I think Miss. St. will defend the perimeter better, they have been playing much better lately and I generally don't like to fade streaks. But GL to man, looks like your Creighton Jays and my San Diego State Aztecs will be in the Tourny again.

Thanks for your input.

[nicktran808]

Missouri State crowd completely shut the fk up when Doug embarrassed the defender in his face with a 3 to make it an 18 point lead

[Bbfromgpt]

Yea this one isn't looking good. They avoided the 1H slide but fell behind too big too early in the 2H

[nicktran808]

Yea this one isn't looking good. They avoided the 1H slide but fell behind too big too early in the 2H

Crowd cheered when Doug missed his first shot in about 25 minutes.

[nicktran808]

And Creighton wins by 24 with Doug shooting lights out. He sure shut the crowd up. Went on a ~25 min run without missing a single basket.

Creighton shooting 57.4% on the day against a tough MOSU defense. If only NBA teams today could even shoot something within 15% of that so I would win my friggin NBA totals (EVERYTHING went UNDER for me today)

[Jago2008]

outscored 42-25 in the second can only be defined by:

FAIL.

you deserve some credit Nick as you said this game would go in favor of the Jays. Hopefully you took their spread, was an easy win for the Jays in the 2nd half. After Miss. St. was down by 5 in the 1st I thought a spirited defense and push would keep the spread favorable... not.

[Jago2008]

Obviously I take full responsibility for posting a loser, trolls pour it on if you feel inclined. Definitely will make this up tomorrow.

[nicktran808]

outscored 42-25 in the second can only be defined by:

FAIL.

you deserve some credit Nick as you said this game would go in favor of the Jays. Hopefully you took their spread, was an easy win for the Jays in the 2nd half. After Miss. St. was down by 5 in the 1st I thought a spirited defense and push would keep the spread favorable... not.

Nah I took a teaser to Creighton -9 with Broncos -2. I'm still wary of double digit Creighton spreads, especially on the road against a tough team like Missouri State. Wish I did take the spread though with how my NBA bets are going today (terrible).

First half was a nailbiter for sure, but Creighton always comes out strong in the 2nd half to pull away. They did it to Illinois State and Indiana State, and now Missouri State is the next victim of it.