Better than Free Picks Articles

fhizzex · 01-09-13, 04:22 PM

My picks for tonight with how I came to the decision below the picks. Then following you will see honorable mentions - ones I didn't actually bet on.

4 Team Teaser - Teased 10.0 points
(723) Dayton +20½ Jan 09/13@06:00p
(728) George Washington +7 Jan 09/13@06:00p
(732) Kansas -2½ Jan 09/13@06:00p
(733) Syracuse -½ Jan 09/13@06:00p

UD as not lost by more than 10 all year and VC has not won by more than 10 against a decent team similar to Dayton.
GW is consistent through both halves and the Bonnies are not, GW should win, but if they don't it'll be a close one but not more than a 7 pt loss.
Kansas should blow out the competition which is why this is a safe bet giving up just 2.5
Same with Syracuse, they should blow out the competition making this a safe bet.

4 Team Teaser - Teased 10.0 points
(740) Michigan -11½ Jan 09/13@06:00p
(742) Seton Hall +20 Jan 09/13@06:00p
(770) Florida -9½ Jan 09/13@06:00p
(743) William & Mary +14½ Jan 09/13@06:00p

Michigan at home against an average team, they should cover the 21 point spread easily.
Seton Hall is one of the more unsure bets, but they haven't lost by 20 yet, and I believe their zone defense and home advantage can keep it closer than one might think.
Florida at home should easily cover the 19.5 point spread making this pretty safe
W&M has been a decent team, and they haven't lost by more than 14 and Towson hasn't won by more than 14 except once to a nobody school.
**As I'm writing this I see Florida scratched from betting on Bovada so it must be an easy win

3 Team Parlay
(733) Syracuse -10½ Jan 09/13@06:00p
(740) Michigan -21½ Jan 09/13@06:00p
(778) North Carolina State -9½ Jan 09/13@07:00p

This is my big parlay for the night, I like the ranked teams against the non ranked teams covering their spreads, plus 2/3 are home.
You can always do a single bet on all 3 to be safe

4 Team Teaser - Teased 10.0 points
(767) Bradley +14½ Jan 09/13@06:00p
(773) La Salle +10 Jan 09/13@06:30p
(783) East Carolina +25 Jan 09/13@07:00p
(787) South Carolina +13½ Jan 09/13@07:00p

Bradley is one of my surprise teams this year, they've done better than most would expect against decent teams. I expect this one to be within 5 or 6 points.
La Salle is one of my favorite smaller school teams, however they are playing at charlotte who has had a pretty good season so far. For this game I see LaSalle coming out stronger than Charlotte in the beginning which should keep them within 7-8 by the end one way or another.
East Carolina has some good stats and Memphis is starting to level out as a top 35 team but no better, but East Carolina has the ability to keep the deficit under 25.
MissSt is simply terrible, home or not, SC is the better team here, but they are the under dog because they are away.

Honorable Mentions:
If I could, I'd pick a half time bet on Rhode Island +5.
Reason: RI has been a first half team lately and given up big runs to opponents in the second half. Richmond has been a second half team pulling ahead for the win late.

I guess we'll see how this goes.

longstrangetrip · 01-09-13, 05:24 PM

I'll give it a shot. BOL

JR007 · 01-09-13, 05:38 PM

good luck

fhizzex · 01-09-13, 09:39 PM

Well, 2-2 isn't bad. So I've added one late.
4 Team Teaser - Teased 10.0 points
(816) Wyoming +5 Jan 09/13@09:00p
(819) UNLV +13½ Jan 09/13@09:00p
(821) Washington State +18½ Jan 09/13@09:00p
(825) Hawaii +17 Jan 09/13@10:00p

Lets see if I can come out 1 up.

longstrangetrip · 01-09-13, 10:16 PM

Where are you getting 10 pt teasers?

fhizzex · 01-10-13, 12:15 AM

Bovada, but only if you tease exactly 4 teams. Not a bad price either, -120. Bet 120 win 100.

MrBig33 · 01-10-13, 12:25 AM

Originally posted by fhizzex

Bovada, but only if you tease exactly 4 teams. Not a bad price either, -120. Bet 120 win 100.

I am on bovada as well and those sweetheart teasers are nice for college basketball..you hit way more times than you lose if you know what you are doing....my 4 teamer tonight with 10pts...

4 Team Teaser #280600234
Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(724) Va Commonwealth -1 Jan 09/13@07:00p
Teased 10.0 points

Final Scores
Dayton 62
Va Commonwealth 74

Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(732) Kansas -2½ Jan 09/13@07:00p
Teased 10.0 points

Final Scores
Iowa State 89
Kansas 97

Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(733) Syracuse -1 Jan 09/13@07:00p
Teased 10.0 points

Final Scores
Syracuse 72
Providence 66

Basketball - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(741) Louisville -½ Jan 09/13@07:00p
Teased 10.0 points

Final Scores
Louisville 73
Seton Hall 58

Outcome: Win
Date settled: Jan 09, 2013 09:27:47 PM

fhizzex · 01-10-13, 12:38 AM

Quick analysis of tonight's picks. I was wrong on one game in my teasers. Bradley ended up blowing it at the very end losing by 15 when I gave them only 14. But really not that bad when I picked all others correctly. Hawaii is still playing, but it's a close game in the second half so it's very unlikely they lose by more than 17. Today's record 3-2, I'll probably lay off the parlays unless they are ML. Also, I was way off on that honorable mention so I'll probably lay off the first half bets. If you only look at the teasers I'll end up 3-1 today, but overall so far I'm 7-3. I'll post my picks tomorrow afternoon.

fhizzex · 01-10-13, 12:41 AM

I watched that Kansas game and if it wasn't for the refs it wouldn't have been so close in regulation and Kansas would have won early, but then again the refs really helped Kansas in OT, but man was I sweating it out!
Seaton Hall hung in there until towards the end as well. I still think Louisville is overrated. Look for their first loss in a Big East match up soon.

MrBig33 · 01-10-13, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by fhizzex

I watched that Kansas game and if it wasn't for the refs it wouldn't have been so close in regulation and Kansas would have won early, but then again the refs really helped Kansas in OT, but man was I sweating it out!
Seaton Hall hung in there until towards the end as well. I still think Louisville is overrated. Look for their first loss in a Big East match up soon.

Becareful with Louisville...they somtimes play like crap but that pressure defense always gives them easy steals and baskets...so it can be a little deceiving.

fhizzex · 01-10-13, 11:01 AM

Should be some easy matchups today. I'm hoping to have 4 or 5 teasers and that's it. It seems to be the most reliable. Teaser record - 5-2. 71% win. Should have the picks up in 4 or 5 hours.

thfootball · 01-10-13, 12:40 PM

fhizzex · 01-10-13, 01:37 PM

I'll have the later picks in a bit, but for the early games I have three 10 pt teasers.

4 Team Teaser - Teased 10.0 points
(508) Troy +6 Jan 10/13@06:00p
(511) Temple +7 Jan 10/13@06:00p
(514) George Mason -1 Jan 10/13@06:00p
(515) Michigan State +8½ Jan 10/13@06:00p

I like Troy at home, it could be a close game, but I expect them to win.
Temple is simply the better team, Xavier has been very inconsistent, and after Temple's close loss to Kansas they want this win more than Xavier.
GM is playing a very bad ODU team at home, ODU covers a lot of spreads, but as long as GM wins, we win.
MSU is the better team here. IU had a bad game in Iowa, but I see the better team coming out on top again.

4 Team Teaser - Teased 10.0 points
(518) North Carolina +5½ Jan 10/13@06:00p
(509) Detroit +8 Jan 10/13@06:00p
(519) Northwestern +12 Jan 10/13@07:00p
(522) Middle Tenn. St. -6½ Jan 10/13@07:00p

These should be some close games, except the MTSU one which they should easily cover the spread.
UNC at home is tough to beat.
Detroit has lost to some good teams, and YSU won't be one of them.
After 2 consecutive losses to top teams NW will win at PSU.

4 Team Teaser - Teased 10.0 points
(531) Louisiana Tech +2 Jan 10/13@07:00p
(526) Arkansas State -½ Jan 10/13@07:00p
(528) Arkansas Little Rock +6½ Jan 10/13@07:00p
(529) South Alabama +12 Jan 10/13@07:00p

LT is a top WAC team vs a bottom WAC team, shouldn't be close
Same thing with Arkansas St, top Sun Belt team at home vs a bottom sun belt team, should be an easy win.
UALR is a decent team at home and NT is at the bottom of their sun belt division and away, could be close which is why I like the +6.5.
South Alabama is the away team, but do not underestimate the Jaguars seeing as how thy kept the game close against a very good MTSU team last week.

fhizzex · 01-10-13, 04:31 PM

Later game teasers:

4 Team Teaser - Teased 10.0 points
Oregon +11
Kentucky -2½
St Louis -1
Colorado +1½

4 Team Teaser - Teased 10.0 points
Idaho +7
Gonzaga +½
Oregon St +5
Santa Clara +4½

MrBig33 · 01-10-13, 04:48 PM

With so many teasers you are bound to lose a few bundles man...smart way to play 10pt teasers is to find the very best 4 of the bunch and hammer away at it...been using this method awhile and that works best for me. You should be winning over 85% of your games if you only play one 4 team bundle.

fhizzex · 01-10-13, 05:26 PM

I see your point. More than likely I will go 3-2 or 4-1 most of the time which only gives me 70% win. I suppose I could aim for 2 really good teasers a day if there are 30+ games for the day depending on the match-ups, and only 1 on the days with few games. My strategy was, bet on 3 early game teasers and if I lose 1 or 2, grab a couple teasers from the later games. I guess the goal was use smaller bets on more teasers creating a smaller risk. The less teasers I bet, I should put more on the line, but that increases the risk.

So, really the decision is more sure bets with increased money at risk, or smaller bets with almost guarantee to come out even or better.

longstrangetrip · 01-10-13, 05:41 PM

Quality over quanity, I like MB 33's concept, do you post your picks MB?

MrBig33 · 01-10-13, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by longstrangetrip

Quality over quanity, I like MB 33's concept, do you post your picks MB?

Sometimes I do post them but mostly just provide input to whatever the game may be.....tonight my 4team 10pt bundle is Kentucky -2.5...arizona +8.5....Gonzaga +.5....Michiganst +8. I think Wednesdays and Saturdays are days you can play two 4 team bundles without strecthing for games.

MrBig33 · 01-10-13, 11:15 PM

My own Cats screw me...damnit!....

fhizzex · 01-11-13, 12:08 AM

The refs can take part of the blame, but then again, the refs really screwed Vandy with the shot clock no call.

fhizzex · 01-11-13, 12:11 AM

2-3 for the night is pretty disappointing. I'll take your advice and stick to one or two 10-pt teasers a day. I appreciate the advice.
And this is assuming Oregon St and the Zags hold on and they should.
Also note, I live in Nashville, but I grew up in Lexington. Always cheering for the Cats.

fhizzex · 01-11-13, 09:35 AM

Even more disappointing Oregon State losing by 10 bringing the record to 1-4 for the day. Sure, everyone has their bad days, but that was not the point of this experiment. I'm going to start a new thread and do just as MrBig suggested, pick 1-2 10 point teasers and I should come out better. Look for it later today under a new thread called "Bovada 10-pt teasers"