StatDude's NCAA Basketball Thread

[statdude]

Handing out winners... get ready. One play here per day max.

VCU -15.5

Daily play record: 0-0 (-110 odds)

[statdude]

Ouch. That should've been a win, leading by 19 at half and 8 with 6 minutes to go.

Today:
[532] Tulsa -6.5 vs TCU

sbr daily play record - 0-1 -1.1 units

[statdude]

0-2 Start. I know I can turn it around here. here's today's:

My latest project has been developing my ncaab database and looking for angles to win. I have several working day-to-day, but wondered what situational angles were strongest in this sport.

One that has surprised me the most is the results of large spreads & away teams.
Since 2007:
Against the open, with a spread over 9 points, away underdogs cover at a rate of 53.1%. Away favorites cover at a rate of 56.7%.
Some excellent blind winners. Coupled with other indicators, these can be very strong plays.
I have a very specific angle that builds off this that has gone 8-4. Today's qualifying play is Oregon State -10.5 (up to -12)

Good luck!