WNBA moving forward down the stretch

R.P. McMurphy · 09-08-12, 03:29 AM

For starters what I have found is pretty basic stuff however anyone tailing keep this in mind. Seattle has won 9 straight vs. Tulsa and getting Lauren Jackson (star olympic player) back and in the groove should only help this team who is fighting for a playoff birth

That means they are hungry and starting to click on all cylinders now down the stretch. Tulsa on the other hand has been solid lately but have nothing to play for at this point. If anyone finds out the status of these "important" pieces who were missing from Tulsa on Thursday night could share that would be great. However I see no reason on the surface why Seattle does not win this game by dd's to get their game in top form for post-season.

face · 09-08-12, 09:55 AM

i think the sky look pretty good. they play good defense and score easy. tall mean bitches

don't know much but i bet on them after they beat sparks so bad that time

Mantle7 · 09-08-12, 11:08 AM

I think Galaxy is gonna be strong from here on out. They had a couple bad games but I think they finish strong. These teams @ +1500 can win any given day. I mean. Can you imagine putting a couple units on Phoenix last night? Im not sure who they play next but they seem to be a pesky team and I can see them upsetting a huge favorite again.

EVPlus · 09-08-12, 02:02 PM

RP - good of you to start this discussion. I noticed ***alot*** of folks have gotten buried tailing Roxxy in the last few days.

As much as I respect his capping in WNBA - the cardinal rule applies anytime you put money down (or click 'submit'): It's rarely wise to blindly tail or blindly fade anyone. I hope a few people have learned their lesson and to use the information of any given capper (no matter how hot or cold) and then make the final decision.

I went 2-1 in wnba last night. Both the totals hit and I took the loss backing Silver Stars at -4.

I'm not saying this to thump my chest or pour salt on the wounds of the Roxxy followers. I'm saying this because I have a few theories moving forward in wnba.

The teams that have already secured a playoff spot will rest their star players. Wnba coaches are no different from any other in that how far a team goes in the post season is ultimately a better reflection than the overall season win/loss record. So, it stands to reason that a coach will 'sacrifice' a few garbage games IF they already have a playoff spot locked in.

You guys can laugh at this next comment all you want. However, I've been watching the games and replays since I started capping wnba. It's amazing to me that people will simply put money down when they don't even watch the sport. Anyway, what I have noticed is that the players in wnba are very very smart (evening cunning) at drawing fouls as they go for the basket. This must be factored in when playing totals because, as most of us know, the clock stops every time a player is at the charity line. And factor in that these women are fantastic free throw shooters; the average is around 60% and Lawson, the league leader, is at something like 93% for the season. Unlike the nba, I'm actually a little surprised when a player misses a free throw in a wnba game.

frogsrangers and I have discussed this next topic before the Olympic break. The players in the wnba often display more character and don't 'mail the sh!t in' even though they know the game isn't going their way. Several reasons for this, IMO, but I won't get into it. The bottom line is - it's a mistake to think these players will display prima donna characteristics (which is comically ironic because it's the male counterparts who often show more of this quality).

In summary, practice razor sharp money management, and should you choose to blindly tail or fade anyone (which I strongly recommend against), blame only yourself when the sh!t storm comes pouring down.

R.P. McMurphy · 09-08-12, 02:24 PM

Thanks EV! Just trying to be pro-active and get some talk going here to hopefully benefit everyone. WNBA is a sport not known by many and with the exception of Roxxy and a few others not many around here seem to know very much. Roxxy has a legion of blind tailers (myself included) however the last several weeks I have started watching the games at least and getting somewhat familiar with what's going on. At the end of the day we should all be here to help each other and learn what we can.

R.P. McMurphy · 09-08-12, 02:29 PM

And yeah EV I have noticed the high ft% myself which seems to be higher than men's hoops. And yes the "we have it locked up" theory for playoff spots is true with all sports. Teams who don't have to win will be more inclined to rest players with nagging injuries etc. Definetely have to keep these things in mind. And bubble teams like Seattle tonight will be hungry and making a serious push. What are your thoughts on Seattle at Tulsa EV?

EVPlus · 09-08-12, 02:41 PM

^^^Lean on the over 153.5. Tulsa will want to make amends for the a55-whooping they received the other night. And they do have players that can shoot. Seattle should respond with decent scoring on their own because they don't want to have to face a pissed off Atlanta with a loss tonight (this will make securing a playoff spot much more difficult.)

Be advised that well over 70 percent of public is on the over but the line has gone down from the opening. I will note that line movements are less predictive in wnba.

EVPlus · 09-08-12, 02:46 PM

One more thing. Like any and all cappers I am also susceptible to regression. And my totals filter is a little over 60 percent for the season. Factor in that there is only one game on the card (which I hate because there is no "weaker line" to choose from). At most, I will go in very small on this to protect my profits for the week.

As stated in my first post, tail or fade based on your final analysis.

R.P. McMurphy · 09-08-12, 02:55 PM

Sounds good EV! Have you heard anything on the status of Temeka Johnson? Or considered just taking Seattle tt ov 80? If the game total has dropped any then maybe that is a sign she will be out tonight for Tulsa.

EVPlus · 09-08-12, 03:08 PM

I don't play tt just to keep things simple for me. I play sides and totals. If I (or anyone) try to excel at too many things, I become mediocre at everything. And, in a business where the very good cappers hit mid 50 to low 60 percent, being mediocre just won't cut it.

I haven't heard anything about Tameka. I saw two reasons why Tulsa fell apart the other night. Tameka's abscence meant there was no leadership. This team doesn't have the dept of the Lynx (if Moore is off, they have Whalen or Augustus to take up the slack...if Augustus is off, they have the other two, etc.). Another reason Tulsa sucked so bad (after actually leading when the game first started) is their dumbfukk coach did not call enough time outs to slow down Seattle's momentum. This is coaching 101 for god fukking sake...

I am basing my lean on the premise that the coach will not make this same mistake twice - especially in front of a home crowd. I am also basing my lean on the premise that the other players will realize that they need to toe the line even if Tameka is out. These women display lots of grit - especially Latta. And Tulsa actually has a decent turnout for weekend wnba home games (although the start of ncaaf could hurt that). The young hungry players in the Tulsa line up will want to show their stuff and the crowd support should help that.

In the end, these are just my theories. And any play, no matter how good it reads, can go sour. So keep that in mind should you decide to pull the trigger. Because I have a comfortable cushion for the week, I have the luxury to go small on this play.

R.P. McMurphy · 09-08-12, 03:31 PM

Good stuff EV I will take it all into consideration and yeah I tend to agree that the home squad will be hungry as well after that ass whipping. 2 hungry teams hopefully means plenty of scoring and not shut down defense for our sake