I've started playing around with modeling in a few different sports to try and develop an edge based mainly on statistics. I figured since I am a crap handicapper, but good at math, this approach would best suit my gambling addiction. Anyway, I have had quite a bit of success on hockey totals over the course of 3 seasons using a similar mindset (obviously different statistics and model for NHL). I know that doesn't prove anything, and its not long term success, but exciting none-the-less. I figured I would start a thread to track totals in the WNBA, with a model I have recently created, that will be tweaked as needed along the way. I'll try to keep a spreadsheet to track this through SBR using their posted lines as well.
PLEASE NOTE:
1. I am not wagering real money. I don't have an expected EV, or even data to show this works yet. Please do not tail these picks unless you are a complete degenerate.
2. I don't wish to share my specific model and calculations, in the rare event that this works out to be +EV.
3. I would love to discuss any work done modeling sports (WNBA or other) in this thread. I will respect the fact that any +EV system details need not be shared.
Onto the picks:
Tonight 8/25
Minn/ATL Under 161.5 (Calculator gave 157.5 as expected total)
NY/LA Under 159.5 (Calculator gave 156 as expected total)
The other too games predicted to be the exact posted line, so there is no play either way on them.
PLEASE NOTE:
1. I am not wagering real money. I don't have an expected EV, or even data to show this works yet. Please do not tail these picks unless you are a complete degenerate.
2. I don't wish to share my specific model and calculations, in the rare event that this works out to be +EV.
3. I would love to discuss any work done modeling sports (WNBA or other) in this thread. I will respect the fact that any +EV system details need not be shared.
Onto the picks:
Tonight 8/25
Minn/ATL Under 161.5 (Calculator gave 157.5 as expected total)
NY/LA Under 159.5 (Calculator gave 156 as expected total)
The other too games predicted to be the exact posted line, so there is no play either way on them.
