2012 Olympic Basketball - Spain to win the Gold Medal +638 (Pinnacle)

GoBlue77 · 07-07-12, 12:34 PM

good value but no rubio...NO CHANCE my friend

silvap · 07-07-12, 12:41 PM

Torn on this one. Spain is pretty talented and should be in the finals for sure unless something weird happens. Being a one game final means they could beat the US (wouldnt happen for sure on a 7 game tipe series) but i just don't see team usa loosing, even with the injuries, especially considering it should be Kobe's last olympics and he's a competitive freak (heck, it could be the last olympics for professional nba players in general), they're a little short on the center spot but have shocking depth at every position. Just my 2 cents. best of luck

silvap · 07-07-12, 12:44 PM

They could have used rubio but his absence is not that critical -they have other point guards who can run the show, missing one of the gasols, for example, would have been a much bigger problem

Goat Milk · 07-07-12, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

This seems like a pretty obvious value to me. The Spanish team is talented, and have a ton of depth in their big men with Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, and Serge Ibaka. Rubio was a loss, but overall, the team is a strong one (if unknown to NBA fans) that should be almost guaranteed to make it to at least the semi-finals, if not to the finals against the US.

Now looking at the injury-ravaged US team: Wade, Howard, Boozer, and Bosh have all pulled out due to injury. Chris Paul left practice today with a thumb injury (details unavailable on how bad). Granted, the US roster is still stacked, but I think that if Spain can perform at a level consistent with the talent on the team, the current price is a good one to lock up now for what could be a very intense, competitive final.

Boozer doesn't even deserve to start in the nba, let alone sit on the bench for the USA. Spain has 2 of the best big men in the world (not sure why you threw Ibaka into this mix, he will get exposed early and often).

Calderone is a solid PG but not good enough. Everything for Spain is riding on the shoulders of the Gasol brothers. They are the only real stars on the team, and neither of them are even good enough to start on the US squad.

I'm not sure what the starting lineup will be for the US, but if Lebron is going to play the PF, do you honestly expect Pau Gasol to guard Lebron James or will they play zone? Not wise to play zone with that short 3 point line and guys like Durant and Bryant the two best shooters on the planet.

Having Lebron at the 4 position basically seals the deal for the USA. It would be a mistake by coach K if he lets Durant come off the bench like Wade had to do in 08.

The reality is USA got better even though they lost Wade (none of the other guys matter i.e. Howard, Bosh), who was the top scorer on the team. I say this because of the dramatic difference in the level of James and Durant. These are two completely different athletes than they were 4 years ago. Meanwhile, Spain has stayed the same.

suicidekings · 07-07-12, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Boozer doesn't even deserve to start in the nba, let alone sit on the bench for the USA. Spain has 2 of the best big men in the world (not sure why you threw Ibaka into this mix, he will get exposed early and often).

Calderone is a solid PG but not good enough. Everything for Spain is riding on the shoulders of the Gasol brothers. They are the only real stars on the team, and neither of them are even good enough to start on the US squad.

I'm not sure what the starting lineup will be for the US, but if Lebron is going to play the PF, do you honestly expect Pau Gasol to guard Lebron James or will they play zone? Not wise to play zone with that short 3 point line and guys like Durant and Bryant the two best shooters on the planet.

Having Lebron at the 4 position basically seals the deal for the USA. It would be a mistake by coach K if he lets Durant come off the bench like Wade had to do in 08.

The reality is USA got better even though they lost Wade (none of the other guys matter i.e. Howard, Bosh), who was the top scorer on the team. I say this because of the dramatic difference in the level of James and Durant. These are two completely different athletes than they were 4 years ago. Meanwhile, Spain has stayed the same.

I agree with some of this. But not all...

In particular, why no respect for Ibaka? Even if you take him as a 12-15 minute guy to keep the Gasols fresh, that's a pretty big addition. He's a pretty solid #3 option at centre, and to say the absence of Howard is meaningless, I think you're 100% wrong. Chandler is not the offensive player at C that he is, and it's pretty clear that in terms of big men, the Spanish squad is better. That's far from saying the Spanish team is better, but it's a fairly major factor to contend with for Coach K.

And really, none of what you said invalidated my main point. If the final comes down to Spain and the US, I think it's very unlikely that you would view +638 as a poor value for what looks to be a fairly competitive team, even under a betting market skewed towards the Americans. No one is saying bet the farm. Just saying I'm fine with laying $100 on this and seeing what happens. Value...

Goat Milk · 07-07-12, 11:53 PM

Suicide it's not as if they will miss the offensive low post presence of Howard. Kevin Love is a much better offensive player than Howard. You didn't comment on the matchups that we talked about.

I know you are doing this for value but as you know the way I always see it is if there is a 0% chance on something cashing in, even if that team can get to the finals, it's useless to bet it. Spain will be at least +400 in a finals verse the US. Minimum. Why not just wait until then if you really like Spain? It won't be that much of a difference from the +638. Watch.

daimoshokage · 07-08-12, 02:28 PM

waste of money..

Goat Milk · 08-11-12, 08:32 PM

Spain +2000 to win Gold

You already lost

beefcake · 08-12-12, 08:20 AM

Milk while youre at it please feel free to bash me in my Russia value thread!!

nic9212 · 08-12-12, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Spain +2000 to win Gold

You already lost

I saw this value at 5Dimes yesterday

Carefree · 08-12-12, 10:55 AM

Great try, but all for NOT.....

nic9212 · 08-12-12, 11:02 AM

Usa! Usa!! gold medal!

suicidekings · 08-12-12, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Spain +2000 to win Gold You already lost

Bumping a month old thread about a 1u fun bet, home alone on a Saturday night in the middle of summer, just to tell me you were right and I was wrong? You call that winning?

Goat Milk · 08-13-12, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Bumping a month old thread about a 1u fun bet, home alone on a Saturday night in the middle of summer, just to tell me you were right and I was wrong? You call that winning?

It was 8 pm. Settle down Suicide, you always come on and make ridiculous future selections and then when I try to explain to you how there is no value in them you don't even respond. You were taking teams like the Bucks and Trailblazers last year to win the East and West conferences and you don't care what anyone has to say. You just plug your shit into your little math models and then try and use that as justification when that may work game to game in the league, but that's not how futures work in basketball.