Crimson Queen's WNBA 2012

[CrimsonQueen]

My NCAAB threads have all been documented money makers the last 2 years I've been posting. I beat WNBA last year hitting 59%, and this year I plan to do the same. I saw RAS was 8-12 (-6.85 Units) currently. Was already planning on beating them anyway, but they are gonna make it easy on me.

I wait until every team has played 4 games before starting official plays. There were 3 unofficial games so far (where teams had played at least 3 games but not all had played 4 yet) and they went 2-1 with the one loss beating the closing line by 5 points. Anyhow, I play opening lines, so I'll generally be posting them a day in advance.

There will be 1/1.5/2 Unit plays, sides and totals.

Enough preamble.


First play:
1 Unit
Seattle Storm +12

Good luck!

[Coach Potato]

good luck

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Sparks +7
Storm +8

Good luck!

2012 WNBA record (0-1) [-1.1 Units]

[CrimsonQueen]

1.5 Unit plays:
Mercury +2.5
Storm +10.5

Good luck!

2012 WNBA record (1-2) [-1.2 Units]

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Fever +5.5

Good luck!

2012 WNBA record (2-3) [-1.3 Units]

[bassfish]

you pickingthe Fever for tomorrow night?

[CrimsonQueen]

Yep bassfish, the model likes Fever tomorrow night. Good luck if you take em!

[Coach Potato]

how well did you do last year?

[CrimsonQueen]

Last year I made 10.50 units, hit 59.09% (52-36). Beat the closing line by .25 points on average and average score MOV was +1.97.

1 Unit
Silver Stars +4

2012 WNBA record (3-3) [-0.3 Units]

[CrimsonQueen]

Tonight:
1 Unit
Phoenix +11

Good luck!
2012 WNBA record (3-4) [-1.4 Units]

[CrimsonQueen]

1.5 Units
Dream +6.5

1 Unit
ATLANTA DREAM @ NY LIBERTY Over 146.5

2012 WNBA record (4-4) [-0.4 Units]

[CrimsonQueen]

2012 WNBA record (5-5) [+0.0 Units]

Total was going WAY over in the first half...stopped scoring in the 2nd half though. Back to +0.

[Coach Potato]

anything for the later games? kinda liking seattle - 7.5

[CrimsonQueen]

Sorry, just saw this now. Model didn't have a play on that game, but hope you took it!

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Indiana +2.5

2012 WNBA record (5-5) [+0.0 Units]

[Coach Potato]

thanks and good luck

[CrimsonQueen]

1.5 Units
Fever +3

1 Unit
Mercury +19

2012 WNBA record (5-6) [-1.1 Units]

[Coach Potato]

lol how come you only play underdogs?

[CrimsonQueen]

I play whatever the model tells me. The books inflate the dogs.

I had 1 favorite pick so far this whole season, but it was a 0.5 Unit play, and I don't post those. (even though last year 0.5 Unit plays went 19-12, and this year they are now 4-3, I just don't trust 0.5 Unit plays enough to release them. Very small edge they should have, and they've definitely run hotter than they should)

2012 WNBA record (6-6) [+0.4 Units]

[Coach Potato]

nice day!!

[CrimsonQueen]

Thanks

2012 WNBA record (7-6) [+1.4 Units]

[CrimsonQueen]

1.5 Units
Washington +7.5
1 Unit
Mercury +11

2012 WNBA record (7-6) [+1.4 Units]

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Seattle +9

2012 WNBA record (8-7) [+0.8 Units]

[TheBeastMode]

Where'd you get +9? is that the opening line?

[hougigo]

Where'd you get +9? is that the opening line?

I think that's for tomorrow

[CrimsonQueen]

Sorry BeastMode, and yes hougigo, that is tomorrows game, not today's. Thanks for clarifying that.

[CrimsonQueen]

2012 WNBA record (9-7) [+1.8 Units]

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Phoenix + 6.5
2012 WNBA record (9-7) [+1.8 Units]

[CrimsonQueen]

There's an unofficial 0.5 Unit play on Tulsa +9 tonight. 0.5 Unit plays are 5-3 this year so far and went 19-12 last year. Still not playing them officially, but just putting this one play out there because it just BARELY didn't qualify as a 1 Unit play.

Point is, if you're leaning towards Tulsa +9 tonight and needed that little bit of extra confidence, this could be it. If you don't like em, it's not a play for a reason, so just stick to the official plays.

(on a personal note, I did bet them for half a unit)

[bleek88]

I think CON runs away with this. -9 CON

[blackgolden]

lets go

[CrimsonQueen]

For tomorrow:

1 Unit
Washington +3

(Also another unofficial small play on the under 152 in the Washington game...take at your own risk!)

[CrimsonQueen]

Here's the time of year the model starts picking up, and for tomorrow it's got two 2 Unit plays.

2 Units
Washington +9
Phoenix +10

Good luck!

2012 WNBA record (9-9) [-0.4 Units]

[EVPlus]

Really nice thread and thanks for sharing your picks.

Have you made any adjustments to your model from last year to this year?

[CrimsonQueen]

Thanks EVPlus. The only major changes I made for this year were including one extra year of data in my data set. I made a number of minor improvements, such as the way the data is automatically collected and the way I treat injured players is similar but better (and automatic) this year, and is standard in all my models at this point.