I expect the Spurs to come out hot tonight on their home floor. They are the team making the between game adjustments while the Thunder will initially look to exploit the Spurs in ways that worked for them at home. San Antonio will have much better ball movement on offense, and I expect Popovich to make defensive adjustments and have success with those adjustments early on. It will take the Thunder some time to counter since they will have to make their own adjustments on the fly during the game.
I also cannot underestimate the night and day play of role players when they are playing at home compared being on the road in the playoffs. The stars will get theirs whether they are home or away, but it is the role players that often affect the outcome with their energy and by knocking down open shots. Everyone is saying there is no way that Ibaka goes off like he did in Oklahoma, but I think the players that will have the largest drop-off are emotional players like Perkins and Sefolosha. I expect players like Bonner, Green, and Gary Neal to shoot better at home for San Antonio.
BOL!
I also cannot underestimate the night and day play of role players when they are playing at home compared being on the road in the playoffs. The stars will get theirs whether they are home or away, but it is the role players that often affect the outcome with their energy and by knocking down open shots. Everyone is saying there is no way that Ibaka goes off like he did in Oklahoma, but I think the players that will have the largest drop-off are emotional players like Perkins and Sefolosha. I expect players like Bonner, Green, and Gary Neal to shoot better at home for San Antonio.
BOL!