Cousin Nicky's Profit Blueprint

cousinnicky · 05-20-12, 02:33 PM

Also hitting Indiana +110 ML, then will hit Miami live ML as soon as +110 or better.

cousinnicky · 05-20-12, 02:41 PM

Just took Miami live ML +145. Indiana is up 9-0 with 8:30 left in the first quarter.

cousinnicky · 05-20-12, 04:59 PM

If miami holds on, my 2 moneyline picks will have netted me +.45 units.

I would then also be able to guarantee myself +.3675 units (or more if MIA is less than 3to1 favorites) between betting a unit on mia to win g4 @ -120, ind to win series @+120, and 1.6125 units on MIA to win series (after g4)

cousinnicky · 05-20-12, 09:30 PM

Took clippers 1H ML for 1 unit @ +180.

Hoping spurs 1H ML will drop below -180 in game, will bet the appropriate amount to guarantee a small profit.

UPDATE:
had a chance to take spurs 1H ML @ -140, but my bet didn't go through in time. was betting 1.4 units.

this would have resulted in no units either way for spurs 1h ml, and +.4 units had clips won the 1h ML.

spurs won, but because bet didnt go through I went -1 units instead of even. oh well... need to be faster next time.

cousinnicky · 05-20-12, 10:18 PM

took clips +12 @ -110 live. for 1 unit. hoping to create a nice middle later.

cousinnicky · 05-20-12, 11:17 PM

spurs live -5 @-110 for 1 unit. now have a nice middle of 6-11 point spurs win will net me both. a 5 or 12 point win gives me a win and a push. anything else and i just lose the vig.

also took clips at +250 live for 1 unit. kind of a hedge, but i just felt like it was decent value. might be able to get spurs at less than -250 in 5-10 minutes.

cousinnicky · 05-20-12, 11:30 PM

took spurs @-230 at end of third quarter for 1.4 units. gonna post a table to keep track of it all.

celtics3388 · 05-20-12, 11:32 PM

That spread middle looks pretty juicy

cousinnicky · 05-20-12, 11:35 PM

Bets	units bet	odds	outcome	profit
Clips 1H ML	1	+180	L	-1
Clips +12 live	1.1	-110	W	1
Spurs -5 live	1.1	-110	L	-1.1
Clips ML live	1	+250	L	-1
Spurs ML live	1.4	-230	W	.6
Spurs ML live	1	-140	W	.7
Clips ML Live	.2	+140	L	-.2
TOTAL	6.8	N/A	3-4	-1

So if spurs win, I make back 3/5 of the unit lost on the clips ML. If clips win, i'm up 1.1 units. might bet more on spurs so that if they win I will profit overall on the ML's

cousinnicky · 05-20-12, 11:40 PM

just picked up spurs -140 ML for just under 1 unit to make back .7 units on a spurs win. adding to table above.

now my ML's:
spurs win - 3.4 units out - 3.7 units in
clips win - 3.4 units out - 3.5 units in

so guaranteed a very small profit.

rooting for spurs to win by 6-12 obviously

cousinnicky · 05-20-12, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by celtics3388

That spread middle looks pretty juicy

unfortunately clips are up 5. good news is that if SA takes lead ft's could push it to 5 to at least get a win and push

cousinnicky · 05-20-12, 11:56 PM

just threw 1/5 of a unit on clips moneyline @ +140.

figure that since clippers have ball they might have a chance to win, and this is a tiny hedge against the spurs -5 not hitting (though obviously spurs could win by less than 5)

cousinnicky · 05-21-12, 12:13 AM

Bets	units bet	odds	outcome	profit
Clips 1H ML	1	+180	L	-1
Clips +12 live	1.1	-110	W	1
Spurs -5 live	1.1	-110	L	-1.1
Clips ML live	1	+250	L	-1
Spurs ML live	1.4	-230	W	.6
Spurs ML live	1	-140	W	.7
Clips ML Live	.2	+140	L	-.2
TOTAL	6.8	N/A	3-4	-1

Frustrating to be down 1 when I would be even if not for my spurs 1h ML bet not going through.

cousinnicky · 05-21-12, 12:18 AM

Below is updated for the Miami and Indiana games as well. Note that the original post with probabilities I bet at 10 of MY units, but used 1 unit to make it easier for others to translate the profit to their own unit.

Bets	units bet	odds	outcome	profit
Spurs/Clips G4 (several)	N/A	N/A	3-4	-1
Miami ML G4	10	-120	W	8.3
Indiana to win series	10	+120
Miami ML G4 Live	1	+145	W	+1.45
Indiana ML G4 Live	1	+110	L	-1
Net	12	N/A	5-5	7.75

cousinnicky · 05-21-12, 06:10 PM

1 unit on sixers @ +210
1 unit on lakers @ +375

looking for some value on live money lines

UPDATE:

2 units on celtics @-160.
if celtics win: 3 units out, 3.25 units in.
if sixers in: 3 units out, 3.1 units in.

cousinnicky · 05-21-12, 08:24 PM

Bets	units bet	odds	outcome	profit
Spurs/Clips G4 (several)	12	N/A	5-5	7.75
Sixers ML G5	1	+210	L	-1
Celtics ML live G5	2	-160	W	+1.25
Indiana ECSF	10	+120
Lakers G5 ML	1	+375
New Total	15	N/A	6-6	+8

Celtics win over 76ers g5 ECSF

cousinnicky · 05-21-12, 10:17 PM

lakers down 1 early third. should get the line i am looking for to guarantee a profit for this game.

celtics3388 · 05-21-12, 10:18 PM

get an avatar you scrub

cousinnicky · 05-21-12, 10:26 PM

Thunder live: 3.1 units @-180.

another guaranteed profit.

thunder bet: 3.1 units to win 1.7 units
lakers bet: 1 unit to win 3.75 units.

so if thunder win i'm up .7 units, if lakers win i'm up .65 units

cousinnicky · 05-21-12, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by celtics3388

get an avatar you scrub

better?

cousinnicky · 05-21-12, 11:12 PM

gonna go ahead and say the thunder have this one in the bag.

Bets	units bet	odds	outcome	profit
Old Total	15	N/A	6-6	8
Lakers ML G5	1	+375	L	-1
Thunder ML G5	3.1	-180	W	1.7
Indiana ECSF	10	+120
Indiana ML G5	5	+285
New Total	19.1	N/A	7-7	+8.7

Gonna look to hit the Miami live line tommorow for a big 14.25 units once the miami odds dip below -285. i pray they do otherwise my 5 units on the Pacers are going to be dust in the wind.

cousinnicky · 05-22-12, 06:07 PM

pretty upset that pacers ml is up to +305 right now because heat ML now has to fall much further to dip below -285 in order for me to make money on a heat win... balls

cousinnicky · 05-22-12, 06:49 PM

heat 1H -4. 1 unit at -102.

if pacers can't keep it close, then heat live ml won't dip below -285, meaning i can't guarantee myself a profit. so small hedge against that here.

cousinnicky · 05-22-12, 10:34 PM

Bets	units bet	odds	outcome	profit
Old Total	19.1	N/A	7-7	+8.7
Miami 1H -4	1	-102	W	+1
Indiana ECSF	10	+120
Indiana ML G5	5	+285	L	-5
New Total	25.1	N/A	7-7	+4.7

Hindsight being 20/20, I should have just hedged on Miami to win the series at -340 and guaranteed myself a small profit between the indiana series bet, the miami g4 bet, and that. That 10 units is looming and could put me in the red. All i can do at this point is pray for an indiana win in g6.

cousinnicky · 05-23-12, 07:54 PM

just got celtics live ml. 2 units @ +140

Outcome	% chance	profit	% * profit
Miami wins game 4, Indiana wins series	.2112	1.9833	.4189
Miami wins game 4, Miami wins series	.3888	-.1667	-.0648
Indiana wins game 4, Indiana wins series	.3136	.15	.047
Indiana wins game 4, Miami wins series	.0864	-2	-.1728
Total:	1	N/A	.2283