NBA Friday.. 1-0 yesterday.. 82-49-3 YTD 62.6% +56.2 units
All posted lines represent the number I got down on my official record tracker. They may be different at the time I post my plays publicly. My record only reflects what is officially tracked by my website record tracker, so I have to post the number I got there to keep my records accurate.
Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Indiana Pacers +3.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Home court advantage in the NBA is said to be the biggest edge in any professional sport. The Pacers are a playoff team, and they also have championship aspirations. Playoff teams like the Pacers should rarely, if ever, be home dogs. 2 and 3 are the biggest key numbers in basketball, and we are getting both of them in this match-up. Pacers +3.5 should be a no-brainer, and yet over 80% of the public is on the Thunder. Just goes to show you why casinos bring in billions of dollars in revenue every year; 9 gamblers out of 10 are suckers, more than that actually.
Pretty straight-forward, the Thunder will simply have a difficult time going to Indiana and winning by 4+, especially when the Pacers are much better down-low. Kendrick Perkins has one of the worst Roland ratings for a starting player in the entire league. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a comfortable Pacers win.
Referee assignments:
*A player must play at least 10% of minutes for a given team to qualify for a Roland rating with that team.
Cleveland Cavaliers +8
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
This game will be just like the DET/CHA game from Saturday, when I took Charlotte because the line was +7. This is another match-up between two teams that are just patiently waiting for the season to end. It is going to look like an ugly YMCA pick-up game, neither team should win this game by 8 points.
The biggest story is the fact that Jose Calderon will not start, so both teams are down to their third string PG. Cleveland still holds the advantage, at least Donald Sloan has actually been with the Cavs for 3 weeks and building chemistry with his new team. The Raptors will use 2 D-league PG’s that just signed 10-day contracts with the team (Uzoh and Justin Dentmon). The actually have another player signed for only a 10-day contract as a starter, Alan Anderson, because James Johnson does not get along with Dwane Casey. If you can beat ANY team in the NBA team by 8+ points while starting 2 D-league players on 10-day contracts, more power to you, let’s see it.
You also know by now that I rate the Cavs (5) points better on the road in my home/away SOS weighted power rankings. I rank the Raptors (3) points better on the road in my power rankings, meaning we are gaining a double advantage via the odds makers universal home court adjustment.
I don't recommend taking the Cavs at any less than +7.5, so get on it now, if you want to tail.
Referee assignments:
*A player must play at least 10% of minutes for a given team to qualify for a Roland rating with that team.
Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Indiana Pacers +3.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Home court advantage in the NBA is said to be the biggest edge in any professional sport. The Pacers are a playoff team, and they also have championship aspirations. Playoff teams like the Pacers should rarely, if ever, be home dogs. 2 and 3 are the biggest key numbers in basketball, and we are getting both of them in this match-up. Pacers +3.5 should be a no-brainer, and yet over 80% of the public is on the Thunder. Just goes to show you why casinos bring in billions of dollars in revenue every year; 9 gamblers out of 10 are suckers, more than that actually.
Pretty straight-forward, the Thunder will simply have a difficult time going to Indiana and winning by 4+, especially when the Pacers are much better down-low. Kendrick Perkins has one of the worst Roland ratings for a starting player in the entire league. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a comfortable Pacers win.
Referee assignments:
- Tom Washington: 24-17 home team ATS record (Head)
- Courtney Kirkland: 15-25 home team ATS record
- Leroy Richardson: 15-26 home team ATS record
| Match-ups | ||||
| Player | Roland | Player | Roland | Pos. |
| Danny Granger | +7.9 | Kevin Durant | +11.1 | SF |
| David West | +3.1 | Serge Ibaka | +4.4 | PF |
| Roy Hibbert | +3.2 | Kendrick Perkins | -7.6 | C |
| Paul George | +2.4 | Thabo Sefalosha | +4.3 | SG |
| Darren Collison | +1.4 | Russell Westbrook | +7.4 | PG |
Cleveland Cavaliers +8
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
This game will be just like the DET/CHA game from Saturday, when I took Charlotte because the line was +7. This is another match-up between two teams that are just patiently waiting for the season to end. It is going to look like an ugly YMCA pick-up game, neither team should win this game by 8 points.
The biggest story is the fact that Jose Calderon will not start, so both teams are down to their third string PG. Cleveland still holds the advantage, at least Donald Sloan has actually been with the Cavs for 3 weeks and building chemistry with his new team. The Raptors will use 2 D-league PG’s that just signed 10-day contracts with the team (Uzoh and Justin Dentmon). The actually have another player signed for only a 10-day contract as a starter, Alan Anderson, because James Johnson does not get along with Dwane Casey. If you can beat ANY team in the NBA team by 8+ points while starting 2 D-league players on 10-day contracts, more power to you, let’s see it.
You also know by now that I rate the Cavs (5) points better on the road in my home/away SOS weighted power rankings. I rank the Raptors (3) points better on the road in my power rankings, meaning we are gaining a double advantage via the odds makers universal home court adjustment.
I don't recommend taking the Cavs at any less than +7.5, so get on it now, if you want to tail.
Referee assignments:
- John Goble: 18-27 home team ATS record (Head)
- Kane Fitzgerald: 26-18 home team ATS record
- Olandis Poole: 22-16 home team ATS record
| Match-ups | ||||
| Player | Roland | Player | Roland | Pos. |
| Alonzo Gee | +0.6 | Alan Anderson | N/A | SF |
| Antwan Jamison | -0.6 | Andrea Bargnani | +2.1 | PF |
| Tristan Thompson | -1.8 | Aaron Gray | -11.1 | C |
| Manny Harris | N/A | DeMar Derozan | +0.8 | SG |
| Donald Sloan | N/A | Ben Uzoh | N/A | PG |
