OVER 181 played, now back up 181.5 to 182
I knew the total would be low due to the Pistons current offensive performance, both team injuries, history between the two. However quite honestly, I personal sought a total of around 183-185 area.
There are some unique situations regarding revenge games in which one team gets hammered. Consequently, the over comes in more time than not. As stated above, injury, Pistons current offensive woes, match up history between the two and most importantly current low scoring affairs from both teams, we can expect a one-sided betting market and a lower than expected total. Therefore, a contrarian approach would suggest there may be value on the other side.
That being said.....a play of over is considered a high probability play when a total range of 180-189.5 is issued and a team that just had a game of 175 combined score or less and is playing another team that had two consecutive games of a combined score of 175 or less we see the over come in 87.1% of time over the last 5 season. Season performance is 3-1 over.
With the same total range stated above, when a team is revenging two straight losses of 10 or more points and is off a road win over a division rival, we see the over come in at 86.2% since '96 and is 6-0 over that last 5 seasons. Added, Det is 18-7 over the last two season after playing a division rival. Further.. when we have a shitty team, winning only 25-40% of their games revenging a road loss of 10 or more, we see a 71.1% over since 1996 and a current season mark of 4-0 over. Speaking of when a shitty team plays a good team we all worry about a blowout which ultimately affects the total. However, 83.3% of the time, since 1996, the over comes in, that is, a hot team winning at least 20- of their last 25 games and has a win% of 75 or over and is playing a shitty win% team of 25-40%. While only 1-1 on the season, this situation is 10-2 over the last 5 season.
This is a scarey play, no doubt. But we do have some history pointing over here. Nothing is 100% so keep that in mind and play at your own risk, but I am on the over here tonight.
BOL.
I knew the total would be low due to the Pistons current offensive performance, both team injuries, history between the two. However quite honestly, I personal sought a total of around 183-185 area.
There are some unique situations regarding revenge games in which one team gets hammered. Consequently, the over comes in more time than not. As stated above, injury, Pistons current offensive woes, match up history between the two and most importantly current low scoring affairs from both teams, we can expect a one-sided betting market and a lower than expected total. Therefore, a contrarian approach would suggest there may be value on the other side.
That being said.....a play of over is considered a high probability play when a total range of 180-189.5 is issued and a team that just had a game of 175 combined score or less and is playing another team that had two consecutive games of a combined score of 175 or less we see the over come in 87.1% of time over the last 5 season. Season performance is 3-1 over.
With the same total range stated above, when a team is revenging two straight losses of 10 or more points and is off a road win over a division rival, we see the over come in at 86.2% since '96 and is 6-0 over that last 5 seasons. Added, Det is 18-7 over the last two season after playing a division rival. Further.. when we have a shitty team, winning only 25-40% of their games revenging a road loss of 10 or more, we see a 71.1% over since 1996 and a current season mark of 4-0 over. Speaking of when a shitty team plays a good team we all worry about a blowout which ultimately affects the total. However, 83.3% of the time, since 1996, the over comes in, that is, a hot team winning at least 20- of their last 25 games and has a win% of 75 or over and is playing a shitty win% team of 25-40%. While only 1-1 on the season, this situation is 10-2 over the last 5 season.
This is a scarey play, no doubt. But we do have some history pointing over here. Nothing is 100% so keep that in mind and play at your own risk, but I am on the over here tonight.
BOL.