NBA Friday.. 1-1 yesterday.. 76-46-1 YTD (62.3%).. +50.8 units
I am amending my official record. My record will now only reflect that of my third party record tracker with the largest sample size, which is my "covers "record. My new official [third party confirmed] record is 76-46-1 for +50.8 units. You can find the link to my official record, as tracked by covers, in my SBR profile.
This is in everyone’s best interest, because now I can be 100% backed by certified third party record tracking.
Obviously, my old record fell within this range, but all the plays were not completely documented by a third party tracker.
I urge you to only believe records that are third party certified. I lead by example, so my record is only as good as can be certified by a record tracker.
Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Detroit Pistons +12
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Bulls are actually one of the most counter-intuitive teams in the league. I power rate them 6 rating points better on the road, so we pick-up a nice nice edge via the odds makers universal home edge adjustment.
Chicago still covers the spread with more frequency than any other NBA team, except for San Antonio. As you would imagine, the league average is around 50%, because odds makers love split action and split cover rates, and they have the power to influence both figures. The Bulls are a popular team, and a team that the public loves to back, so odds makers are going to auto-inflate Bulls lines.
Please not that I adjust for every injury and trade fully, so please do not send me e-mails asking if we still like the Pistons with Stuckey and Gordon out. I count every injury against a team that is worse than probable, so I set my numbers as is all questionable, game-time decision, and doubtful players will miss the game, even though they sometimes end up playing.
The Bulls are in cruise control, and are likely just holding Rose out so that he is 100% healthy for the playoffs, they have absolutely no motivation to beat this Pistons team by double digits.
Referee assignments:
New Jersey Nets +4
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
I rate the Nets as 7 rating points better on the road. They are second to only the Hornets for most counter-intuitive teams. That means we are gaining a huge edge from the odds makers universal home court advantage, so it is the same scenario as both of our winning Hornets plays the past 2 days.
It would not be a stretch to say that the Warriors are one of the worst teams in the NBA at this point of the season. Their fans are disgruntled from the Monta Ellis trade, and they look like they are shutting Curry down for the rest of the season. This team is left with two bad point guards, in Robinson and Jenkins. Robinson is flashy and skilled, but he makes ridiculously bad decisions at times. Deron Williams, and even Sundiata Gaines, will have quite an easy go at it tonight. Keep in mind that Sundiata Gaines has the best Roland rating on the Nets entire team (+6), in limited minutes. Nets second team , with Gaines, Morrow, and Gerald Green, should dismantle the Warriors second team. I actually don't think the Warriors really have a first team anymore, it is more like they start with their second team and bring in their third, so you could say that the Nets second team will dismantle the Warriors third team.
I have the Nets winning this one by 4 points, but I could see it being a beat down. If the Nets actually play with and urgency and desire, they have the talent to hang with/beat good teams.
Referee assignments:
This is in everyone’s best interest, because now I can be 100% backed by certified third party record tracking.
Obviously, my old record fell within this range, but all the plays were not completely documented by a third party tracker.
I urge you to only believe records that are third party certified. I lead by example, so my record is only as good as can be certified by a record tracker.
Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Detroit Pistons +12
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Bulls are actually one of the most counter-intuitive teams in the league. I power rate them 6 rating points better on the road, so we pick-up a nice nice edge via the odds makers universal home edge adjustment.
Chicago still covers the spread with more frequency than any other NBA team, except for San Antonio. As you would imagine, the league average is around 50%, because odds makers love split action and split cover rates, and they have the power to influence both figures. The Bulls are a popular team, and a team that the public loves to back, so odds makers are going to auto-inflate Bulls lines.
Please not that I adjust for every injury and trade fully, so please do not send me e-mails asking if we still like the Pistons with Stuckey and Gordon out. I count every injury against a team that is worse than probable, so I set my numbers as is all questionable, game-time decision, and doubtful players will miss the game, even though they sometimes end up playing.
The Bulls are in cruise control, and are likely just holding Rose out so that he is 100% healthy for the playoffs, they have absolutely no motivation to beat this Pistons team by double digits.
Referee assignments:
- Tony Brothers: 17-24 home team ATS record
- Bennie Adams: 19-21 home team ATS record
- Josh Tiven: 20-17 home team ATS record
New Jersey Nets +4
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
I rate the Nets as 7 rating points better on the road. They are second to only the Hornets for most counter-intuitive teams. That means we are gaining a huge edge from the odds makers universal home court advantage, so it is the same scenario as both of our winning Hornets plays the past 2 days.
It would not be a stretch to say that the Warriors are one of the worst teams in the NBA at this point of the season. Their fans are disgruntled from the Monta Ellis trade, and they look like they are shutting Curry down for the rest of the season. This team is left with two bad point guards, in Robinson and Jenkins. Robinson is flashy and skilled, but he makes ridiculously bad decisions at times. Deron Williams, and even Sundiata Gaines, will have quite an easy go at it tonight. Keep in mind that Sundiata Gaines has the best Roland rating on the Nets entire team (+6), in limited minutes. Nets second team , with Gaines, Morrow, and Gerald Green, should dismantle the Warriors second team. I actually don't think the Warriors really have a first team anymore, it is more like they start with their second team and bring in their third, so you could say that the Nets second team will dismantle the Warriors third team.
I have the Nets winning this one by 4 points, but I could see it being a beat down. If the Nets actually play with and urgency and desire, they have the talent to hang with/beat good teams.
Referee assignments:
- Dan Crawford: 18-18-2 home team ATS record
- Michael Smith: 19-20-1 home team ATS record
- Scott Twardoski: 18-14-1 home team ATS record
