NBA Monday.. 0-1 yesterday.. 95-54 YTD (63.8%) +74.5 units
Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Indiana Pacers +3
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Heat are still the public’s darling, so every time the odds makers can get the Heat to lose ATS they win money. Every Heat line will be auto-inflated for the remainder of the year. Vegas would love to push the Heat’s cover rate down to where the Laker’s is right now (44%), and rob the public like bandits.
It definitely helps the Pacers that they have 2 PG’s that are better than either Heat PG. The Pacers also have a lot of big men that will give the Heat’s soft interior fits.
Referee assignments:
Milwaukee Bucks +6
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Bucks are another counter-intuitive team that plays better on the road. The Knicks used to be much the same, but have gotten better at home recently. However, the Knicks are still about the same at home as they are on the road, so we are gaining a virtual double-edge from the universal home court adjustment.
I think everyone now realizes that Monta Ellis isn’t nearly as good as he seemed in Golden State, however, he does fill the role as a situational scorer that the Bucks have needed all season. Many of us have seen their blunderous 4th quarters and failures to seal the deal late in the game this season. I think the Bucks are a far better team than the Knicks, at this point in the season.
Now, for the most exciting part of this match-up.. Tony “ROAD COVERS” Brothers will be calling this game, and he even has a little extra help, with another road favoring ref in Courtney Kirkland. Nothing is more obnoxious than Knicks fans in MSG, so these refs will not be looking to hand many favorable calls to this Knicks team, especially after the crowd heckles them in the first quarter.
Referee assignments:
The Knicks have 2 of the most road favoring refs in the league working against them tonight, a Knicks cover would truly surprise me.
Denver Nuggets +8
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Bulls are still covering 60% of spreads and have odds makers in auto-inflate mode on Bulls lines. The Nuggets are a full 6 points better on the road, according to my rankings and the Bulls are also better on the road, so we gain another universal home court adjustment double-edge.
Both of these teams are banged-up, the Bulls are finally starting to feel the effects of Rose’s absence. This Nuggets team is without Nene, as they had been at times before he was traded. However, they have Kenneth “Manimal’ Faried to hold things down in the paint and are very much the same team that has shocked several big time NBA contenders this season. By the way, Faried’s Roland rating is higher than Nene’s ever was, at +4.8 he doubles Nene’s +2.5 while he was with the Nuggets. The Nuggets are just fine down low. Faried is a forward, but holds the paint down like a center.
Referee assignments:
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Indiana Pacers +3
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Heat are still the public’s darling, so every time the odds makers can get the Heat to lose ATS they win money. Every Heat line will be auto-inflated for the remainder of the year. Vegas would love to push the Heat’s cover rate down to where the Laker’s is right now (44%), and rob the public like bandits.
It definitely helps the Pacers that they have 2 PG’s that are better than either Heat PG. The Pacers also have a lot of big men that will give the Heat’s soft interior fits.
Referee assignments:
- Ed Malloy: 21-15-2 home team ATS record
- Haywoode Workman: 13-18-1 home team ATS record
- Gary Zielinski: 16-23 home team ATS record
Milwaukee Bucks +6
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Bucks are another counter-intuitive team that plays better on the road. The Knicks used to be much the same, but have gotten better at home recently. However, the Knicks are still about the same at home as they are on the road, so we are gaining a virtual double-edge from the universal home court adjustment.
I think everyone now realizes that Monta Ellis isn’t nearly as good as he seemed in Golden State, however, he does fill the role as a situational scorer that the Bucks have needed all season. Many of us have seen their blunderous 4th quarters and failures to seal the deal late in the game this season. I think the Bucks are a far better team than the Knicks, at this point in the season.
Now, for the most exciting part of this match-up.. Tony “ROAD COVERS” Brothers will be calling this game, and he even has a little extra help, with another road favoring ref in Courtney Kirkland. Nothing is more obnoxious than Knicks fans in MSG, so these refs will not be looking to hand many favorable calls to this Knicks team, especially after the crowd heckles them in the first quarter.
Referee assignments:
- Tony “Road Covers” Brothers: 15-24 home team ATS record
- Courtney Kirkland: 14-22 home team ATS record
- Marat Kogut: 19-12-1 home team ATS record
The Knicks have 2 of the most road favoring refs in the league working against them tonight, a Knicks cover would truly surprise me.
Denver Nuggets +8
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Bulls are still covering 60% of spreads and have odds makers in auto-inflate mode on Bulls lines. The Nuggets are a full 6 points better on the road, according to my rankings and the Bulls are also better on the road, so we gain another universal home court adjustment double-edge.
Both of these teams are banged-up, the Bulls are finally starting to feel the effects of Rose’s absence. This Nuggets team is without Nene, as they had been at times before he was traded. However, they have Kenneth “Manimal’ Faried to hold things down in the paint and are very much the same team that has shocked several big time NBA contenders this season. By the way, Faried’s Roland rating is higher than Nene’s ever was, at +4.8 he doubles Nene’s +2.5 while he was with the Nuggets. The Nuggets are just fine down low. Faried is a forward, but holds the paint down like a center.
Referee assignments:
- Bill Kennedy: 17-19 home team ATS record
- JT Orr: 16-17-1 home team ATS record
- Leon Wood: 19-19 home team ATS record
