My 3/25 Plays

Judgejoebrwn · 03-25-12, 08:28 PM

Wizards +10 - Loss (2.2U) - Just missed this cover, with a late Nene outtage and a career-high performance from Boston's Avery Bradley. Meh.
Jazz -.5 1H - Loss (2.2U) - Got crushed 55-40.
76ers +3.5 - Loss (1.1U) - Down 3 at the half, then managed to only put up 27 points in the 2H. Amazing. Found out Iguodala was out late as well. Bad luck tonight.

Nuggets/Wolves O211 - Win (1U)
Jazz/Hawks U191.5 - Loss (1.1U) - 4OT didn't help, but regulation still saw 199 points.
76ers/Spurs U192.5 - Win (1U)

Down 4.6U currently with 4 units left in play. See how the late day treats us.

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 03-25-12, 11:01 PM

Blazers -9.5 - Loss (1.1U) - Didn't show up the first half, and couldn't close after an impressive 3Q.
Heat/Thunder U201.5 - Win (1U) - Seriously considered going U98 for 2H, but didn't. Would've been another win.

Lakers looks quite questionable at this point, down by 10 at the half.

Halftime Bet

2U - Lakers -6.5 2H - Bryant has yet to get going and Gasol has been horrible from the field. Lakers should come out swinging 2H and push for a win. Even if they don't quite get it, it should be less than a 3-point loss.

Down 4.7U currently. Who's up for fading?

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 03-26-12, 07:49 AM

And the Lakers fail every way imaginable.

Down 9.1U on the night. Good thing I'm playing with low amount of money. Who wants to fade me tomorrow?

-Judge

HoulihansTX · 03-26-12, 08:01 AM

All your reasonings for B2B were not on point

Warriors tok a one hour plane flight to Portland from Oakland. Travel not a factor

Grizz played B2B but in the same city. Not a factor.t

Spurs and Hawks both were playing the backend of their b2b @ home. No travel no relevance.

This is meant to be helpful, not critical.

Oh yeah Grizz covered b/c they were in a revenge spot after losing in OT just a week ago to the Lakers.

So today you take the Nets, since Jazz just put every thing thy had into the Hakws game. They will not show up.

Take Bobcats. Celtics are the worst ATS team on the backend of b2b's for the past two years. They lost this game last year

HoulihansTX · 03-26-12, 08:03 AM

Take Knicks, they are in a double revenge situation

I lean Clipps, but 9.5 is a lot for such a mediocre team but they are in a huge revenge spot.

Judgejoebrwn · 03-26-12, 08:08 AM

No offense taken. I'll take any advice I can get.

I already took the Nets for the reasons you described, even though they're the worse team. Unfortunately, I already took a unit on the Celtics. I have a lot of trouble backing the worst team in the league, despite how terrible Boston is on b2b's. Also, they've only got a 2-hour or so flight from Mass. to NC, so by your theory travel wouldn't be much of a factor. Not only that, but Boston already beat the Clippers on a b2b on the road, and LAC is a far superior team to the Bobcats.

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 03-26-12, 08:12 AM

I took the Clips first half. Seems to be the better bet from what I've read. Will look into the Knicks. I also took Miami -3 and Detroit -1.5. Miami should be looking to make a statement after their horrid performance last night, and who better to make it on than a team they've beaten 3 times this season already. Washington's on a b2b and have only covered in 3 of their last 12 home games.

-Judge

HoulihansTX · 03-26-12, 08:27 AM

Washington cannot score since all of their talent has left them. They are waiting for Nene to play. Once he plays they will be a much improved team.

The Celtics game were they played the Clipps is the same situation as the Grizz last night. They played the Lakjers the night B4 in the same city. B2B has not effect in that situation.

shadymcgrady · 03-26-12, 08:37 AM

b2b2b is a trend that is common this yr and while most teams struggle with the 2nd of these games, they somehow and for some reason do fairly well in the 3rd or last of these. note the close line for wash +1.5 here, wait to see how the line moves tonight and lean wash if it moves to 2 or stays at 1.5

houlihans brings up a great point ab boston in their b2b tendencies. in fact bos was up big early in the game and barely held onto cover the entire game making the 1st half play yesterday the safe bet. char first half or even first quarter is a play i favor tonight.

the utah jazz going into 4 ot's last night as houlihan brought up is also a good spot not only for the nets but the under as well as they are most definitely spent.

if nyk is going for a revenge game against mil tonight in the garden, expect fireworks in the over under being that mil has averaged well over 100 ppg this past month coupled with acquiring monta ellis. lots of decent opportunities and spots to take advantage of tonight with the games scheduled.

Judgejoebrwn · 03-26-12, 08:43 AM

The NY/MIL game kinda scares me. Both teams riding the pine for playoff contention (NY 1.5 games ahead), so it should be a hard-fought game. The ATS stats for both teams as of late are crazy (Milwaukee is 5-0 last 5 road games, NY is 7-1 last 8 overall). Milwaukee has won both previous meetings this season and both were prior to the acquistion of Ellis. I'm thinking of staying away, but if I had to pick I'd have to take the points with Milwaukee in a close game.

-Judge

as99 · 03-26-12, 08:44 AM

One factor nobody is bringing up is the teams that are fighting for playoff positions. Boston is looking to tie the #1 spot tomorrow and have been playing hard. My bet for NBA is -1 Boston & -4 Clippers @ -120.

shadymcgrady · 03-26-12, 08:44 AM

good points, and if you feel strongly ab mil in such a situation go mil 1st half

as99 · 03-26-12, 08:55 AM

My advice to you is don't make too many picks. Even though you say you are playing for small amounts. The small amounts add up real quickly. End game is a profit. Spot bet with your strongest plays. Pick a good unit size and go from there. Use money management.

Don't do what a lot of people do, go all over the place and not really get anywhere. It is good you try to reason but understand that you can't sweep the board. Try to stick to the strongest leans. The thing with small units is you try to compensate by going across the board rather than making smart plays.

Judgejoebrwn · 03-26-12, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by as99

My advice to you is don't make too many picks. Even though you say you are playing for small amounts. The small amounts add up real quickly. End game is a profit. Spot bet with your strongest plays. Pick a good unit size and go from there. Use money management.

Don't do what a lot of people do, go all over the place and not really get anywhere. It is good you try to reason but understand that you can't sweep the board. Try to stick to the strongest leans. The thing with small units is you try to compensate by going across the board rather than making smart plays.

I agree and I think that's my problem. It's just I gather information from free picks (sportschatplace.com) and posts on here and come up with an array of picks that look sound. Two days ago I made +2.2 units, and yesterday I'm down overall probably 7 units. Should probably "rate" those sound picks and choose the few that I like the most.

-Judge

P.S. What's your -1 Boston and -4 LAC? The spread I see is far different than that, or are those your unit bets?

as99 · 03-26-12, 10:19 AM

Boston & LAC are a teaser play. Depending on your sportsbook, go to the teaser section.

There you can "parlay" reduced lines, in this case 5 points at various lines or odds.

I have Boston -1 & LAC -4 teased together at odds of -120.

Judgejoebrwn · 03-26-12, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by as99

Boston & LAC are a teaser play. Depending on your sportsbook, go to the teaser section.

There you can "parlay" reduced lines, in this case 5 points at various lines or odds.

I have Boston -1 & LAC -4 teased together at odds of -120.

Gotcha. Thanks, I'll check it out.