NBA Saturday.. 1-1 yesterday.. 94-53 YTD (63.9%) +74.7 units
Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Play:
Toronto Raptors +12.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The most important factor in this game is the way Chicago has played without Rose. Odds makers are no longer over-adjusting for Rose’s absence, because the Bulls have covered 4 out of the 5 most recent games that Rose missed. The fact still remains that Derrick Rose is the Bulls MVP. Now that odds makers are at the mercy of people that are blindly betting Chicago, they will inflate Bulls lines with or without Rose.
The Bulls are rated as my best road team in the league, they are better on the road than they are at home by 5 points. The raptors are 2 points better on the road, so we are a gaining a double counter-intuitive edge.
When you look at the big picture, odds makers’ are desperately trying to get that 61.2% cover rate of the Bulls to regress. Odds makers can’t afford casual bettors to blindly bet the Bulls “just because they always cover.” I expect the Bulls to regress to a cover rate of below 60%, at least. That’s because, in the past 8 seasons, only 8 teams have covered more than 60% for the season, or 3.33% of teams over that period of time (8/240=0.033). Popular teams covering at this rate are VERY bad for odds maker’s bottom line, and they have the power to change that figure.
Take this line ASAP, as I mentioned on twitter early this morning, it is going nowhere but down.
Referee assignments:
The Raptors will enjoy a significant road referee advantage.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Play:
Toronto Raptors +12.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The most important factor in this game is the way Chicago has played without Rose. Odds makers are no longer over-adjusting for Rose’s absence, because the Bulls have covered 4 out of the 5 most recent games that Rose missed. The fact still remains that Derrick Rose is the Bulls MVP. Now that odds makers are at the mercy of people that are blindly betting Chicago, they will inflate Bulls lines with or without Rose.
The Bulls are rated as my best road team in the league, they are better on the road than they are at home by 5 points. The raptors are 2 points better on the road, so we are a gaining a double counter-intuitive edge.
When you look at the big picture, odds makers’ are desperately trying to get that 61.2% cover rate of the Bulls to regress. Odds makers can’t afford casual bettors to blindly bet the Bulls “just because they always cover.” I expect the Bulls to regress to a cover rate of below 60%, at least. That’s because, in the past 8 seasons, only 8 teams have covered more than 60% for the season, or 3.33% of teams over that period of time (8/240=0.033). Popular teams covering at this rate are VERY bad for odds maker’s bottom line, and they have the power to change that figure.
Take this line ASAP, as I mentioned on twitter early this morning, it is going nowhere but down.
Referee assignments:
- Scott Foster: 16-21 home team ATS record
- Derrick Collins: 18-17-1 home team ATS record
- Courtney Kirkland: 14-21 home team ATS record
The Raptors will enjoy a significant road referee advantage.
