celtics +3.5 versus mil HUGE

BigDofBA · 03-22-12, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

Last night the Wiz were at +7 at -119 juice. But that may be too early to pay attention to the whole juice thing. But yeah, I've noticed the same. Last year GoldenGreek had "Pinny Plays," and they are anytime Pinny juiced a team to a certain extent (i think anything higher than -120), I think they hit at like a 65% rate.

I always wondered what he was talking about when he said Pinny play.

Anyway, this is just something I have noticed. I'll see other books move lines and Pinny just holds solid while add juice. It's almost like they're baiting you into taking a "better number" when in reality they are siding with the other side.

lakerboy · 03-22-12, 06:21 PM

Pinny is on boston .

BigDofBA · 03-22-12, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Pinny is on boston .

Yep. The .5 line movement was only from the suckers taking the Bucks.

I want to remind people that the Bucks blew a 15 points lead and went the final 6 minutes of the game without scoring against Orlando to blow the cover by half a ******* point. They will screw you.

Speedy88 · 03-22-12, 06:25 PM

Game just went offline at pinny. Maybe Larry Bird is suiting up for the Celtics.

EDIT: nevermind, it's back up.

No coincidences · 03-22-12, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

Yep. The .5 line movement was only from the suckers taking the Bucks.

I want to remind people that the Bucks blew a 15 points lead and went the final 6 minutes of the game without scoring against Orlando to blow the cover by half a ******* point. They will screw you.

For as well as the Bucks are playing, there is zero reason to back them off a long, successful road trip. Again, this is C's or no play.

Speedy88 · 03-22-12, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

For as well as the Bucks are playing, there is zero reason to back them off a long, successful road trip. Again, this is C's or no play.

From a situational angle, I agree that the pick does point towards taking BOS. But sometimes you got to throw the situations out the window and say, "DAYM BOSTON IS OLD and GARBAGE." And MIL will get up for this game, teams don't lay down when the Celtics come into their building. And this is a huge game for MIL, they can pull a game closer to the Celts. I think we'll see very soon that the Knicks will move up in the standings, and that the last playoff spot will be between the Bucks and Celtics.

BigDofBA · 03-22-12, 06:36 PM

-3.5 (-114) at Pinny

if it gets to -3.5 (-115) and just stays there, you almost have to play Boston. Everytime they juice a side to -115 and keep the line half a point lower, that side loses more times than not.

Speedy88 · 03-22-12, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

-3.5 (-114) at Pinny

if it gets to -3.5 (-115) and just stays there, you almost have to play Boston. Everytime they juice a side to -115 and keep the line half a point lower, that side loses more times than not.

Wait now I'm confused. Isn't Bucks -3.5 being juiced up at -115, making the Bucks the play?

hawley · 03-22-12, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

Wait now I'm confused. Isn't Bucks -3.5 being juiced up at -115, making the Bucks the play?

not if it doesn't move to 4

Speedy88 · 03-22-12, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by hawley

not if it doesn't move to 4

gotcha, thanks hawley.

BigDofBA · 03-22-12, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

Wait now I'm confused. Isn't Bucks -3.5 being juiced up at -115, making the Bucks the play?

The line is 4 every where else but Pinny is staying at 3.5 and just juicing the Bucks. To me, that signifies that Pinny is content giving you the Bucks at -3.5. In other words, it appears that Pinny likes Boston's chances tonight.

Obviously they aren't always right but in the past month since I've been tracking this, the team that is juiced typically doesn't cover. Be aware that this only applies when Pinny doesn't move their line and other books do. Example, Bucks -4 every where else yet staying at -3.5 at Pinny.

moshi · 03-22-12, 06:51 PM

Damn. My model says Boston ML.

BigDofBA · 03-22-12, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by moshi

Damn. My model says Boston ML.

I'm thinking about playing Boston ML. If they're close enough to cover 4, I think they win anyway.

If they don't win, they will probably get blown out so it won't matter.

BigDofBA · 03-22-12, 06:56 PM

Pinny moved to 4. I think I'll just trust my initial feeling and lay off this.

No coincidences · 03-22-12, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by hawley

not if it doesn't move to 4

Just did.

No coincidences · 03-22-12, 06:59 PM

Bucks are getting hammered.

PR9 · 03-22-12, 07:09 PM

Boston looks pretty serious in the pregame. Don't think they will lay down unless something freaky happens (ie- they get down by alot). Granted I wasn't able to see much, about 12 seconds or so

PR9 · 03-22-12, 07:15 PM

yup. Same look as in the pregame. they look very determined and jumpy just watching the first minute. Celtics came to play

YouHave2outs · 03-22-12, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by PR9

Boston looks pretty serious in the pregame. Don't think they will lay down unless something freaky happens (ie- they get down by alot). Granted I wasn't able to see much, about 12 seconds or so

oh man

Speedy88 · 03-22-12, 07:24 PM

Bucks getting no love from the refs. Bos already got away with a goaltend and an obvious foul.

PR9 · 03-22-12, 07:28 PM

we can see why 12 of the last 13 Milwaukee games have gone over. No defense to speak of and they push the ball, with quick open passes. Boston players, even the slower ones, getting through the paint and to the rim with ease.. that's of the 4 minutes I've watched (watching ncaa tonight primarily)

lakerboy · 03-22-12, 07:50 PM

Bos shot well and its still close. Not a good sign.

hawley · 03-22-12, 07:54 PM

Originally posted by PR9

Boston looks pretty serious in the pregame. Don't think they will lay down unless something freaky happens (ie- they get down by alot). Granted I wasn't able to see much, about 12 seconds or so

BigDofBA · 03-22-12, 08:08 PM

Boston isn't going to keep scoring like this.

lakerboy · 03-22-12, 08:13 PM

Bos def is garbage. Letting a white guy get to the rim without consequences is a joke.

BigDofBA · 03-22-12, 08:16 PM

Yeah, the Bucks are just blowing right by Boston.

I doubt all of these shots the Celtics are making are going to continue to fall.

Speedy88 · 03-22-12, 08:20 PM

They should fukkin move the Bucks to my city in Seattle. There is like no one at the game and it is Monta's home debut, and the Celtics are in town. If you can't pull a crowd in a game like this, good luck getting fans at any other game.

thebestthereis · 03-22-12, 08:41 PM

Terry Cummings isn't walking through that door

PR9 · 03-22-12, 08:51 PM

Boston says it all before the game as I've said countless times. They looked really pumped and focused before this one

they cover at an extremely high rate on the road when that happens

moshi · 03-22-12, 08:57 PM

Go Boston! Preferably by 10 or less

hawley · 03-22-12, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by PR9

Boston says it all before the game as I've said countless times. They looked really pumped and focused before this one

they cover at an extremely high rate on the road when that happens

did the 12 seconds you saw them for tell you this?

HCBoone · 03-22-12, 08:59 PM

Congrats.

IllyPhilly[DOC] · 03-22-12, 09:02 PM

All is well LB. I'm glad you hit. Would be horrible feeling losing a 5g bet. I've had my losses with huge bets. I didnt tail you though couldnt put my money on Boston. I did play bucks+under 1 unit each. I do see now why you like the sixers on Friday with this more than likely Boston win. Boston should be tired and Sixers will get the best of them on the b2b. GL and im not making the same mistake 2x by not tailing your huge plays.

lakerboy · 03-22-12, 09:04 PM

Game far from over

YouHave2outs · 03-22-12, 09:08 PM

nice hit LB. they were in control almost the whole game. well played