Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Washington Wizards +4.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Both of these teams are extremely counter-intuitive, so we are gaining a double edge from the universal home advantage odds makers use. The Nets are a full 11 rating points better on the road than they are at home, enough to be my most counter-intuitive team.
One of the biggest factors in this match-up is the fact that Nene is a major upgrade from JaVale McGee. The Wizards are actually a decent team down low with the trio of Nene, Booker, and Seraphin. Not to mention, they are better off with the pure scoring ability of Jordan Crawford, now that Nick “String Bean” Young is out of the picture. I would consider the Warriors now comparable to the Cavs and Kings.
Secondly, the Wizards are still covering spreads less frequently than any other team in the league and, if the season were to end today, the 2003-2004 Orlando magic would be the only team in the past 9 years to cover at a lower rate than the Wizards. As I’ve said recently, the Wizards are likely to cover more spreads than not the rest of the season because odds makers are looking to thwart anyone blindly fading the Wizards.
Referee assignments:
Waiting on this line, it should hit +5 soon.
Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Both of these teams are mildly counter-intuitive, the Cavs are a full 7 rating points better one the road, than they are at home. That makes for big value when the Cavs are on the road.
The isolated incidence of Atlanta beating Cleveland by 16 at home on Sunday gives us some added value. You’ll always get some value from situations like this because of the public’s “what have you done for me lately” mentality. Which actually makes the Hawks less likely to cover a subsequent spread vs. the Cavs, because odds makers have to adjust for the public’s ill-conceived notion that Sunday’s outcome makes Atlanta more likely to cover tonight’s spread.
Referee assignments:
Not sure if this line will hit 8, although it should. You can take +7.5, I am waiting.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Washington Wizards +4.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Both of these teams are extremely counter-intuitive, so we are gaining a double edge from the universal home advantage odds makers use. The Nets are a full 11 rating points better on the road than they are at home, enough to be my most counter-intuitive team.
One of the biggest factors in this match-up is the fact that Nene is a major upgrade from JaVale McGee. The Wizards are actually a decent team down low with the trio of Nene, Booker, and Seraphin. Not to mention, they are better off with the pure scoring ability of Jordan Crawford, now that Nick “String Bean” Young is out of the picture. I would consider the Warriors now comparable to the Cavs and Kings.
Secondly, the Wizards are still covering spreads less frequently than any other team in the league and, if the season were to end today, the 2003-2004 Orlando magic would be the only team in the past 9 years to cover at a lower rate than the Wizards. As I’ve said recently, the Wizards are likely to cover more spreads than not the rest of the season because odds makers are looking to thwart anyone blindly fading the Wizards.
Referee assignments:
- Mike Callahan: 16-15 home team ATS record
- Josh Tiven: 19-15 home team ATS record
- Leon Wood: 19-16 home team ATS record
Waiting on this line, it should hit +5 soon.
Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Both of these teams are mildly counter-intuitive, the Cavs are a full 7 rating points better one the road, than they are at home. That makes for big value when the Cavs are on the road.
The isolated incidence of Atlanta beating Cleveland by 16 at home on Sunday gives us some added value. You’ll always get some value from situations like this because of the public’s “what have you done for me lately” mentality. Which actually makes the Hawks less likely to cover a subsequent spread vs. the Cavs, because odds makers have to adjust for the public’s ill-conceived notion that Sunday’s outcome makes Atlanta more likely to cover tonight’s spread.
Referee assignments:
- Ron Garretson: 20-16 home team ATS record
- Tony Brown: 15-19 home team ATS record
- Kevin Cutler: 17-16 home team ATS record
Not sure if this line will hit 8, although it should. You can take +7.5, I am waiting.
