NBA Monday.. 0-1 yesterday.. 86-52 YTD (62.3%) +60.9 units

[billyunl]

Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.

All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.

Very limited write-ups today, I have to start heading back home shortly.

Plays:

Cleveland Cavaliers +4

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

Both of these teams are extremely counter-intuitive. Each one perform’s much better on the road, so we are catching an advantage from the universal home adjustment that odds makers use.

Referee assignments:

• David Jones: 16-17 home team ATS record
• Scott Bolnick: 2-5 home team ATS record
• Eric Dalen: 19-15 home team ATS record

Minnesota Timberwolves +2

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

This edge would be considerably bigger if Pekovic wasn’t questionable. Hopefully Pekovic plays, but if he doesn’t Derrick Williams will have a big game.

Referee assignments:

• Scott Foster: 15-20 home team ATS record
• JT Orr: 15-15-1 home team ATS record
• Gary Zielinski: 16-20 home team ATS record

[mp5070]

[shadymcgrady]

Kinda new to this forum. Great stuff with the ref assignments, totally digging it

[mlesnet]

Thanks for the great info.

How much more value do you see, point wise, if pekovik does end up playing?

Were you able to calculate sessions off of Cleveland and Wallace in new jersey?

[blanco]

Love the ref analysis. Would love to see your daily picks, please post more!

[leetreaper]

[billyunl]

Love the ref analysis. Would love to see your daily picks, please post more!

Been posting everyday for a while.

[billyunl]

I have links to multiple official record trackers in my profile.

[Speedy88]

Nice job intuition.

[billyunl]

Thanks for the great info.

How much more value do you see, point wise, if pekovik does end up playing?

Were you able to calculate sessions off of Cleveland and Wallace in new jersey?

Yes, I adjust for all injuries and trades using Roland Ratings.

[billyunl]

2-0 tonight, +4 units.

[underal]

nice job. solid wins

[painter10]

nice work thanks billy !!!!

[mp5070]

[mp5070]

[onacloud]

Keep one thread.... no reason to make this thread everyday with your tout title

[billyunl]

Keep one thread.... no reason to make this thread everyday with your tout title

That's how I operate. Don't like it, don't read it.

[Hunner24]

I have a question: Why is every "normal" bet a 2u wager? Do ever place a 1u bet? Not to attack you, but it looks like a way to artificially double your units won by doubling what a "normal" wager would be.

[billyunl]

I have a question: Why is every "normal" bet a 2u wager? Do ever place a 1u bet? Not to attack you, but it looks like a way to artificially double your units won by doubling what a "normal" wager would be.

1.1 unit bets are for halftime hedges/middles. Took Warriors 2H -4 last night and hit the middle for a total of +3 units.

2 units isn't an overly-inflating number, go talk to the guys using 5,10, even 50 units per bet. I use 2.2 so I don't have to use .55 for my halftime hedges. It is all relative, you should not decide worth based on units, you should decide via overall win percentage.

[YouHave2outs]

Keep one thread.... no reason to make this thread everyday with your tout title

tons of people make new threads every day posting their picks. this guy happens to post winners so far since he's been here, just let him do that.

I have a question: Why is every "normal" bet a 2u wager? Do ever place a 1u bet? Not to attack you, but it looks like a way to artificially double your units won by doubling what a "normal" wager would be.

he probably makes a 3 or 5 unit play every once in awhile and it's easier to keep the units in tenths than hundredths. for example a 5 unit wager would be 2.5 if he halved it. if he loses he has to subtract 2.75, getting it into the hundredths. by having a standard unit of 2, he can bet 1.5 or 2.5x his normal amount without keeping track of hundredths.

[billyunl]

2-0 start, need the Kings for another sweep and a 5-0 run.

[Speedy88]

Nice job Billy, YOU DA MAN. Hoping I wake up tomorrow to see you on Dallas.