NBA Tuesday.. 1-0 yesterday.. 81-47 YTD (63.3%) +61.9 units
On a 15-1 NBA streak.
Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no affect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Orlando Magic +4.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The public is still riding Heat fever. Recently I called for a Heat ATS skid because of how overvalued they are in the eyes of the public right now, and what happened? They lost 4 of their last 5 ATS. Funny how that works, right? You have to remember that odds makers are setting the line and they know that they can get away with murder on Heat games right now because they are THE public team. Take a guess who the least favorite pick is today, according to my reader’s poll at the end of this post. Yep, the Magic, go figure.
I have fielded questions about Jason Richardson’s injury. The thing about his injury is that he and his back-up (Redick) have almost identical Roldan ratings (+1.8 for Richardson and +2 for Redick.) Therefore, I would much rather have a 100% healthy Redick starting instead of an 80% healthy Richardson. I factored Richardson’s injury into the scoring table, but just to be overly-cautious. His injury should not have much effect on the outcome of the game.
Referee assignments:
Memphis Grizzlies PK
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
This line has already seen reverse line movement, but should be at PK for most people and I suggest you take it at PK.
The Lakers are a completely different team on the road. They are my #23 ranked road team and they are a full 12 points worse on the road than they are at home. To put it in perspective, I rate the Hornets and Lakers as about the same team when they are playing on the road. FYI, the Grizzlies were 11-point favorites last time the Hornets came to Memphis.
There really isn’t much else to this game except for the public doesn’t realize just how awful the Lakers are on the read and that gives the odds makers an opportunity to jack-up any Lakers spread when they are on the road. By the way the line has moved, it looks like odds makers over-stepped their bounds on how much they can inflate a Lakers line and got hammered by sharp money on Memphis +1.
Referee assignments:
Atlanta Hawks +5.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Hawks are minimally better on the road, I rate them 1 point better on the road than at home. However, you all know by now, the Nuggets are one of my most counter-intuitive teams. They rate 7 points better on the road than at home and they are supposed to have one of the biggest home advantages “in altitude” so book makers can really take advantage of square bettors on the Nuggets at home.
Denver is still cover 57.1% of their spreads on the season, so odds makers are still inflating their lines in an effort to actively regress their cover rate to the mean. The Nuggets are also sputtering right now, because they are having trouble reintegrating their injured players. I consider this to be a true coin-flip in respect to who the SU winner will be, so I’ll gladly take the Hawks and 5.5 points
Referee assignments:
The Hawks benefit from a below average home advantage officiating crew.
Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no affect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Orlando Magic +4.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The public is still riding Heat fever. Recently I called for a Heat ATS skid because of how overvalued they are in the eyes of the public right now, and what happened? They lost 4 of their last 5 ATS. Funny how that works, right? You have to remember that odds makers are setting the line and they know that they can get away with murder on Heat games right now because they are THE public team. Take a guess who the least favorite pick is today, according to my reader’s poll at the end of this post. Yep, the Magic, go figure.
I have fielded questions about Jason Richardson’s injury. The thing about his injury is that he and his back-up (Redick) have almost identical Roldan ratings (+1.8 for Richardson and +2 for Redick.) Therefore, I would much rather have a 100% healthy Redick starting instead of an 80% healthy Richardson. I factored Richardson’s injury into the scoring table, but just to be overly-cautious. His injury should not have much effect on the outcome of the game.
Referee assignments:
- Ed Malloy: 17-14-2 home team ATS record
- Eric Dalen: 16-15 home team ATS record
- James Williams: 13-15 home team ATS record
Memphis Grizzlies PK
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
This line has already seen reverse line movement, but should be at PK for most people and I suggest you take it at PK.
The Lakers are a completely different team on the road. They are my #23 ranked road team and they are a full 12 points worse on the road than they are at home. To put it in perspective, I rate the Hornets and Lakers as about the same team when they are playing on the road. FYI, the Grizzlies were 11-point favorites last time the Hornets came to Memphis.
There really isn’t much else to this game except for the public doesn’t realize just how awful the Lakers are on the read and that gives the odds makers an opportunity to jack-up any Lakers spread when they are on the road. By the way the line has moved, it looks like odds makers over-stepped their bounds on how much they can inflate a Lakers line and got hammered by sharp money on Memphis +1.
Referee assignments:
- Ken Mauer: 15-16 home team ATS record
- Karl Lane: 13-14 home team ATS record
- Sean Wright: 16-14-1 home team ATS record
Atlanta Hawks +5.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Hawks are minimally better on the road, I rate them 1 point better on the road than at home. However, you all know by now, the Nuggets are one of my most counter-intuitive teams. They rate 7 points better on the road than at home and they are supposed to have one of the biggest home advantages “in altitude” so book makers can really take advantage of square bettors on the Nuggets at home.
Denver is still cover 57.1% of their spreads on the season, so odds makers are still inflating their lines in an effort to actively regress their cover rate to the mean. The Nuggets are also sputtering right now, because they are having trouble reintegrating their injured players. I consider this to be a true coin-flip in respect to who the SU winner will be, so I’ll gladly take the Hawks and 5.5 points
Referee assignments:
- Greg Willard: 14-16 home team ATS record
- Kevin Fehr: 11-15 home team ATS record
- Leroy Richardson: 11-20 home team ATS record
The Hawks benefit from a below average home advantage officiating crew.
