12- game winning streak ended yesterday, but the streak of profitable days continues.
Keep in mind that my picks are mostly based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no affect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Any of the plays sitting at 3.5 ATS edge could become plays with shifts in public betting trends, so check back before game time to see if one of them made it as an official play.
Plays:
Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
If you’ve been following me for a while you’ll know that both of these teams defy logic and perform better on the road than they do at home, according to my power rankings. Since these teams share that trait, we gain a double advantage on the road team (Minnesota.) I rate the Suns 3 points better on the road than at home, and I rate the Timberwolves 5 points better on the road than at home. This gives us an advantage due to the obligatory, and universal, home court advantage that Vegas must incorporate into the line.
These teams also have a match-up trait in common, they basically don’t have a [decent] back-up PG. The Timberwolves are going to have a lot of trouble against teams that have a good PG and a decent back-up, until Barea returns. Luckily the Suns must resort to Sebastian Telfair when Nash needs a rest. Telfair has an absolutely horrid Roland rating of (-11.6). So as long as the T-Wolves keep Ridnour on the court whenever Nash is out there, their PG situation will not hurt them and they can use their vastly superior front court to demolish the Suns.
I think this line will hit +4 again and maybe even +4.5. We aren’t in danger of it dropping to +3 at this point, so hold off on this line.
Referee assignments:
Keep in mind that my picks are mostly based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no affect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Any of the plays sitting at 3.5 ATS edge could become plays with shifts in public betting trends, so check back before game time to see if one of them made it as an official play.
Plays:
Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
If you’ve been following me for a while you’ll know that both of these teams defy logic and perform better on the road than they do at home, according to my power rankings. Since these teams share that trait, we gain a double advantage on the road team (Minnesota.) I rate the Suns 3 points better on the road than at home, and I rate the Timberwolves 5 points better on the road than at home. This gives us an advantage due to the obligatory, and universal, home court advantage that Vegas must incorporate into the line.
These teams also have a match-up trait in common, they basically don’t have a [decent] back-up PG. The Timberwolves are going to have a lot of trouble against teams that have a good PG and a decent back-up, until Barea returns. Luckily the Suns must resort to Sebastian Telfair when Nash needs a rest. Telfair has an absolutely horrid Roland rating of (-11.6). So as long as the T-Wolves keep Ridnour on the court whenever Nash is out there, their PG situation will not hurt them and they can use their vastly superior front court to demolish the Suns.
I think this line will hit +4 again and maybe even +4.5. We aren’t in danger of it dropping to +3 at this point, so hold off on this line.
Referee assignments:
- Derrick Stafford: 19-13 home team ATS record
- Curtis Blair: 14-17 home team ATS record
- Courtney Kirkland: 13-17 home team ATS record
