NBA Sunday.. 3-0 yesterday.. 78-46 YTD (63%) +58.1 units

Speedy88 · 03-11-12, 10:14 AM

Nice info and stats. Card is really sharp today, I may pass on everything. Looking forward to watching the early PHI/NYK game. Jrue Holiday is going to give Lin all kinds of problems with his defense.

Good luck!

pacocn · 03-11-12, 10:19 AM

speedy are you playing philly +2.5?

billyunl · 03-11-12, 12:55 PM

Here are all three plays for today. I included write-ups for the upcoming games tonight.

Keep in mind that my picks are mostly based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.

All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no affect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.

Plays:
Philadelphia 76ers +3

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

Referee assignments:

Eddie F. Rush: 14-12 home team ATS record
Brian Forte: 14-15 home team ATS record
John Goble: 13-20 home team ATS record

Below-average home referee advantage working in Philly’s favor.

Indiana Pacers +5.5

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

This is another case where we are gaining a double advantage from 2 teams that play better on the road. I rate the Pacers 4 points better on the road than they are at home and I rate the Magic 2 points worse at home than on the road. As I’ve mentioned before, Vegas builds a universal home court advantage that is much less prevalent in match-ups like this, so it is an over-adjustment on the odds makers part.

The Magic will be without 2 starters, but it is not really that big of a factor. Richardson only has a +1.8 Roland rating and Turkoglu actually has a -0.7 Roland rating. It seems as though odds makers, correctly, did not weigh their injuries very heavily.

I think the ceiling on this line is +6, but I’m not sure if it will make it to +6. I will update you via twitter as to the most opportune time to take this line. If you have +6 at your book, take it now.

Referee assignments:

James Capers: 13-15-1 home team ATS record
Matt Boland: 20-10 home team ATS record
Kevin Cutler: 15-14 home team ATS record

Memphis Grizzlies +6

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

Once again, we have a home team that tends to perform better on the road, according to my home/road split power rankings. Denver is especially notable, because the common belief is that the Nuggets hold a large advantage “in altitude” at the Pepsi Center. I actually rate the Nuggets a full 8 points better on the road than they are at home.

The biggest story in this match-up that Tony “Road Covers” Brothers is calling this game. I’ll remind you that I do not quantitatively factor referee assignments into my evaluation, so Brothers is just a bonus. Brothers has a very notable reputation for favoring road teams, road teams have covered over 60% of Brother’s officiated games over the past 3 years and they are hitting 66% of the time this year. I never blindly bet on road teams when Brother’s is officiating, but I have occasionally relinquished home team plays that were on the bubble because of the fact that Brothers was officiating the game.

As for the big picture, Denver is covering spreads at a 58.5% rate this year. Vegas doesn’t like any team to be above the profit threshold of 52.4% so the team isn’t profitable when blindly bet on. So odds makers should be inflating Nuggets lines in an effort to get that percentage to regress toward the mean.

Referee assignments:

Tony Brothers: 11-22 home team ATS record
Nick Buchert: 16-11 home team ATS record
Rodney Mott: 21-12 home team ATS record

Tony Brothers is off-set a bit by Mott, but Brothers is the king of road team covers so I still consider the refs in our advantage. Brothers has a 3-year track record of over 60% road team covers.

billyunl · 03-11-12, 01:53 PM

1-0 start to the day.

lucky cat · 03-11-12, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by billyunl

1-0 start to the day.

painter10 · 03-11-12, 02:03 PM

thanks for the winners !!

grizzy · 03-11-12, 02:04 PM

Good stuff...tailing with Memphis and Pacers

billyunl · 03-11-12, 09:45 PM

2-1 tonight +1.8 units. The win streak had to end at some point, at least the streak of profitable days continues.