Botev1921's thoughts and ideas

botev1921 · 02-21-12, 05:57 AM

Here are some early thoughts for tonight!

Heat - Kings Under 204 (possibly Under 202 depending on movement)

At the moment I am seriously looking at the Under. Kings can score from time to time, but the thing is that Miami can defend all the time. Kings gone over 100 in only 3 away games this season and I have them at around 90 points on this one. That leaves the Heat who should explode for 114 for the Under to be in danger. They've also done it 3 time at home this season. I don't see it as a close game, so I would think it will be done by the 3rd. Something like 108-87 at best is where I rate it. We'll see how the line moves, but I might try Under 202 to have more fun with it later today.

agendaman · 02-21-12, 07:25 AM

i have noticed in nba if there is a real low/high total it will usually go under low/over high nice warriors win /cover last nite/saved me from total chaos/also i am taking all nhl teams getting 1.5 goals on pl/won last 3/5 sbr nhl wkly. contests doing this/gl

Shopa1 · 02-21-12, 07:45 AM

Will be tailing you tonight Maina

GL

botev1921 · 02-21-12, 08:18 AM

So far this season I am 109-82-8. I get those 8 push, cause I always round it up and it saves my life often. If the line is 203,5 I will usually either get/give some value for some extra security depending on the teams.

Pacers - Hornets (Under 181)

Call me crazy, but I was actually considering backing the Hornets again at +11,5. Jack finally looked like something last night and Ariza had an off-night. Yet, b2b2b with a team that struggles to score and the potential of George Hill back put me out of it. Pacers are not the most aggressive team and their bench is inefficient. I currently got this at around the 177 mark with Indiana winning by somewhere between 10 and 15. I think Hibbert is more than capable of shutting Kaman down and Ariza should give Granger some trouble. George Hill playing or not could be key to how well Indiana defend but at the moment he is more likely to play according to some sites.

botev1921 · 02-21-12, 09:41 AM

Portland - Spurs (Blazers ML)

I just realized Spurs have lost 6 in a row away at Portland, not to mention Portland are regularly forcing 17+ TO's against the Spurs. I know Blazers looked terrible on the last b2b, but Spurs now had 2 tough games and teams are much closer than before. They have to lose somewhere and since I see this one being close, I will go for the ML to make things more secure. Manu and Splitter out will be a huge blow on b2b and they were missed last night as well! Might go for the -4 later on, depending on the news from Portland, but as of this moment I really love Portland.

These are my 3 for today. Will update if something changes later on!

botev1921 · 02-21-12, 11:24 AM

There could be some value for Spurs +6...might serve as good insurance since the game should be close anyways!

botev1921 · 02-21-12, 11:46 AM

Will look out for Duncan sitting out this one in which case I'll go thumbs up on Portland -6!

botev1921 · 02-22-12, 05:21 AM

Thank God I got that Portland -6 right, cause it saved me yesterday. Will try with less O/U today.

Clips - Denver (Clips...no idea of the line yet, but up to -7 looks sold)

Three in a row shouldn't happen for the Clips especially since they already lost to Denver twice this year. Lawson might be out for the Nuggets and Rudy as well, but keep an eye on both later today. Nene is out...just too convenient for the Clips right now. CP3 should explode as he rarely has too many bad games in a row and his FG% has dropped the last 3 games.

Bobcats - Pacers (Pacers -5,5)

It won't be as solid as a 35 point win, but I doubt the Pacers letting this one go when they are 0,5 games behind Orlando. I know they had a tough OT win last night, but can rebound and defend and against a Bobcats team that can't score a 5,5 seems fine. Under is always a consideration when it comes to the Bobcats and at 188,5 might deserve a look later today!

botev1921 · 02-22-12, 10:34 AM

So the Clips is at -7,5 which is a bit too high for me. Still I will be backing them in one way or another. Another interesting tip:

OKC - Boston (OKC - 8,5)

I know OKC has a lot of games at the moment, but Boston look terrible and are missing their entire team. In addition to Rondo out, KG possibly out and Bass now we have O'neal and Wilcox with injuries. It's a real Boston tea party and unless I am missing something, -8,5 looks like a gift!

cwbuff44 · 02-22-12, 12:06 PM

I'm with you on the Pacers and OKC for sure. I'm gonna look into the Clips game now. Hope the Pacers pull it off. I'm going a little bigger on that game than I do normally.

botev1921 · 02-22-12, 12:59 PM

I took the Clips mainly because of the 2 losses, the 2 losses to Denver and Lawson with problems. I just can't see CP3 being bossed around by Andre Miller and Harrington won't score at will against Jordan and Blake...not to mention K-Mart!

botev1921 · 02-23-12, 03:46 AM

3-0 last night and a very good return!

botev1921 · 02-23-12, 08:11 AM

I am usually terrible when there are 5 games or less, but I'll give it a try. On first sight I am giving a serious look at the Lakers game. The Dallas win was somewhat expected, but these are the same old Lakers on the road and on b2b they'll have less energy than OKC. The bad news is that I have the game at something like 101-92 OKC, which is where the line is. Still I will probably try the over here baring in mind OKC allowed a terrible Boston offense to score 100+ and the Lakers might be on the high spirit with Kobe coming from an off-night. Not ready to commit yet, though.
The other one is of course Atlanta, who are in such a slump that I'll be surprised if they can pull a win against Orlando without any long range. They are shooting 3's and they can't hit them. Orlando look good even without J-Rich and if it comes to a long range shootout they should come out on top easily. Those two scored 176 in OT in Orlando and the under is also an option! Will see how it goes through the day!

botev1921 · 02-23-12, 08:13 AM

I also love the Spurs with TD and TP back and Denver giving a lot of effort last night! Will see how the line starts, but Spurs -4 looks good!

botev1921 · 02-23-12, 08:14 AM

Here is something from last night I did in the last minute. Pure instinct:

1 OKC Thunder to win by 14-16 pts BOS Celtics @ OKC Thunder
(Winning Margin) 23/02/2012 None 9.00 Won
2 LA Clippers to win by 7-9 pts DEN Nuggets @ LA Clippers
(Winning Margin) 23/02/2012 None 7.50 Won

10$ stake for a 675$ return

Kalibongo · 02-23-12, 08:15 AM

Good luck!

Traintilupuke · 02-23-12, 10:16 AM

How about some more of that instinct tonight?

botev1921 · 02-23-12, 11:55 AM

Man, I put one of these pretty much every night and that was the very first time this year I got them both. Usually in-play you can see how things are going at the middle of the second and try it. My advice there, especially when you have good teams is to just follow the result at the end of the first if it is in favor of the home team...and do not forget the 2 and 7 rule. That was crucial with the Clipper last night since they don't really win with too much against better teams - they are just good at closing in the 4th.
For tonight I'd probably go with 7-9 Orlando and 5-7 Spurs.

botev1921 · 02-23-12, 12:19 PM

Here are my official picks for today. Since there are only 4 games and with less games I struggle a lot, I am going small on these.

Hawks - Magic (Magic ML)

This is called counter-logic. The Hawks play well against Orlando, winning 5 in a row at home to them, beating them in the playoffs last year, getting that OT win this year in Orlando. However, the current state of the Hawks makes me go against tradition and pick the Magic here. It could be a close game, but without JJ I seriously doubt the Hawks can force 16 TO's like last time. The Magic have more shooters, who seem to be in good form and Dwight has been as dominant as ever against Pachulia...they carry all the momentum here. The Hawks bench is terrible and they even go to Stackhouse lately as an offensive option at his age. Traditions are made to be broken and as terrible as JJ could be, he is still a major part of what the Hawks do.

Denver - Spurs (Spurs -3)

Just logic here. TD and TP are back and fresh from their day-off...I hope. Denver had a tough one and they were close in LA. Still, they are short on quality with people being out and that could be fatal in a tight schedule. Harrington is shooting career 41% against the Spurs compared to 48% at home this season and his points are much needed for Denver who lack scoring options in their current state. With Lawson out or even in, Parker should have it easy.

Traintilupuke · 02-23-12, 01:33 PM

Thanks for the advice man. I'm gunna try it really small tonight and see how it works out. My picks look very similar to yours so BOL to the both of us!

botev1921 · 02-24-12, 06:26 AM

Oh, well. The counter-logic did not work. Luckily I did not risk much on that. See you all after All-star!

botev1921 · 02-24-12, 01:39 PM

Since I don't bet on All-star games. Here are some soccer ideas:
Maritimo - Uniao Leiria (Maritino to win)
Borussia Munchengladbach - Hamburg (Borussia to win)
100$ bet to win 158$

These are just the major picks of the day and I see no reason to avoid them.

botev1921 · 02-24-12, 05:18 PM

Borussia not really certainty did not deliver. You would expect that from a championship contender, but what the hell! Will wait on some fresh NBA games next week!

botev1921 · 02-28-12, 08:06 AM

Finally NBA is back. My leans for the first day after a break should be taken cautiously. You never know who might shock you coming off a break.

Bulls - Hornets (Under 180)
The Hornets have problems scoring against much worse defenses. Last time they scored 67 against the Bulls and will surely pass that but I won't expect them to do by much. Vitibet suggest they'll go as high as 87, but I seriously think the Bulls are better than that suggestion, which indicates Cavs and Bulls have similar defense, which is not the case. I think a win in the region of 96-80 is on the cards, which allows 4 points to play with even if the line drops later on. I can also see a low scoring 4th quarter here considering both benches are not reliable and if it is a blowout I think it will be Under 40 in the 4th. Anyhow, the Under here seems the only logical thing to do!

Dallas - Nets (Under 189)
Another one that goes on the defensive end. Dallas can certainly play solid D at times and the Nets are not really offering much offensively. Deron plays well against Kidd, but nothing exceptional. Dallas will look to come back from that Lakers loss and I see them building a good enough lead to see off the Nets early on. Lopez might actually improve the Nets defense, but Dallas rarely get points of that position anyways, so the plus is some more rebounding, which should see Dallas under the 100 mark, which leaves us space even if the game is close and the Nets somehow score around the 92 mark. I have it at 96-89 at the moment.

botev1921 · 02-29-12, 05:25 PM

So I guess the Bulls screwed almost everyone and I am not the only one there. Will try to rebound today.
One game I like after the Kobe news is T-wolves +4,5. To be honest I have no clue how the Lakers will look without Kobe, but that would mean slower game overall, so an under is also on the cards. If Kobe plays, he will certainly be a bit cautious and the game should be slow again! I also like to go for a risky over on OKC and Philly. To be honest I think both could score around the 98 mark and should cover 191,5!

Here we are:
T-Wolves +4,5 1u
76ers-OKC Over 191,5 1u